Anybody taking advantage of Coronavirus?

Detroitgator

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I agree with your point about Boeing (or Kodak, etc.) and I hate the USG picking winners (and thus de-facto "losers"). As for Bitcoin versus gold, at least gold has actual uses - and if nothing else I have yet to meet a female who didn't like it and want to take physical possession! To my way of thinking, there is no comparison between virtual currency and anything else you might invest in. To include actual currency. It may totally be my lack of a complete understanding - and God knows I have had to sit through a bunch of lectures on how it works - but I will leave the investing in it to others. I am fully willing to admit that a lot things discussed in this thread are way outside my wheel house and thus not where I put any money. I am rooting for you though!
FTR - I am fully willing to be educated and disabused of my ignorance! (Just understand it might be like teaching a special ed class.)
I'm with ya... here is the short answer for ANYTHING: if you do not PHYSICALLY possess it, you merely hold a paper or virtual derivative of perceived value. So, you can physically possess gold and silver. Having a paper or online brokerage claim to them is virtual. Owning a stock is now a virtual claim to something tangible. A dollar bill is a paper claim to a mere promise of "full faith and credit"... All of those things can go "poof." Yes, I agree with you regarding crypto... it's a virtual claim to something that doesn't exist and only has perceived value... like the dollar... ;)

Here's another way to look at it. For EVERY product EVER, marketing people will tell you that acceptance of a new product follows an "S" shaped life cycle where the "S" is stretched vertically and the top and bottom tails are pretty flat and the horizontal axis is "time" and the vertical is "acceptance." It takes a long time for initial 5% acceptance, then, if accepted, shoots up near vertical to 90%+ in a very short period of time, then acceptance tails off over time for the last bit of acceptance. Well, with cryptos, we are well past the 5% acceptance to the point of the Fed exploring it and every major wall street player having more than a finger in the arena. They allow futures trading of it as a further derivative... so, is everyone "bought in?" No, not even close. Are we beyond the point of acceptance to where it is not going to die? Absolutely.

Here's a pic to make the idea easy... and as you see, with technology, time to acceptance and growth is compressed massively... Crypto has moved passed the "critical mass" for greater acceptance...
images

Screen_Shot_2017-12-08_at_9.57.15_AM.original.png
 

FireFoley

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Goldman Sachs just lifted its S&P 500 price target. Here’s why

Goldman Sachs just lifted its S&P 500 price target. Here’s why

Goldman Sachs became the latest firm to increase its price target for the S&P 500 (SPX) boosting its year-end target by 20%, from 3000 to 3600.

Strategists, led by David Kostin, expect the yield on the 10-year Treasury (BX:TMUBMUSD10Y) to rise, from 0.7% now to 1.1% by the end of the year. That, all things being equal, would be bad for stocks, as it would imply a higher bar on relative valuation to hurdle. But they expect the equity risk premium to decline.

With all due respect to any Investment Bank or retail brokerage, their targets are fkking worthless!!!. As @Detroitgator said, they finally got around to reading his posts. First of all no bank is going to be constantly bearish b/c they will take away their business and they are in the business of making money so they have to be pumpers. So they have these targets and then when all the targets get breached by a ton, they just move their targets up. They look at the charts and say oh well we were wrong. They have no convictions. Look at all the Tesla bears. Even if they have their beliefs they are still lifting their price targets b/c the stock is almost 2K per share.
 

Gator By Marriage

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I'm with ya... here is the short answer for ANYTHING: if you do not PHYSICALLY possess it, you merely hold a paper or virtual derivative of perceived value. So, you can physically possess gold and silver. Having a paper or online brokerage claim to them is virtual. Owning a stock is now a virtual claim to something tangible. A dollar bill is a paper claim to a mere promise of "full faith and credit"... All of those things can go "poof." Yes, I agree with you regarding crypto... it's a virtual claim to something that doesn't exist and only has perceived value... like the dollar... ;)

Here's another way to look at it. For EVERY product EVER, marketing people will tell you that acceptance of a new product follows an "S" shaped life cycle where the "S" is stretched vertically and the top and bottom tails are pretty flat and the horizontal axis is "time" and the vertical is "acceptance." It takes a long time for initial 5% acceptance, then, if accepted, shoots up near vertical to 90%+ in a very short period of time, then acceptance tails off over time for the last bit of acceptance. Well, with cryptos, we are well past the 5% acceptance to the point of the Fed exploring it and every major wall street player having more than a finger in the arena. They allow futures trading of it as a further derivative... so, is everyone "bought in?" No, not even close. Are we beyond the point of acceptance to where it is not going to die? Absolutely.

Here's a pic to make the idea easy... and as you see, with technology, time to acceptance and growth is compressed massively... Crypto has moved passed the "critical mass" for greater acceptance...
images

Screen_Shot_2017-12-08_at_9.57.15_AM.original.png
I know, I know. And as the saying goes, if you think the whole world’s crazy, then maybe it’s you. So it’s probably me, but crypto currency makes my spidey sense tingle. I’ll no doubt regret it later (especially since I am well aware -too aware- of who needs it the most and will always thus keep it artificially high) but I’m sitting that one out. No desire to dance with the devil in pale moonlight.
 

Detroitgator

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I know, I know. And as the saying goes, if you think the whole world’s crazy, then maybe it’s you. So it’s probably me, but crypto currency makes my spidey sense tingle. I’ll no doubt regret it later (especially since I am well aware -too aware- of who needs it the most and will always thus keep it artificially high) but I’m sitting that one out. No desire to dance with the devil in pale moonlight.
Remember, I said it was purely speculative and with "Vegas money" (i.e. willing to lose it). I don't see it as any kind of "investment."
 

FireFoley

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This current move up is not bandwagon, and neither is the precious metals.

Agree and I am not overweight them. I base this on what I heard today and read in earnings reports. There is more money on the way SOON to the people. Read what Wal Mart said. they had monster earnings and said all of the stimulate money was spent by early July, and then their sales leveled off. they said there is no way they can keep up this pace without future stimulate checks. Rest assured their is stimulate money coming sooner rather than later. I might have to add the US dollar to some of my worthless stock certificates in using them as wallpaper. when you addict the masses to stimulate money, you can't get them off the stimulate money, and there is no placebo for stimulate money.

Secondly, look at the 10yr, Treasury again. It can't find any footing. Back to 66 basis points. I am of the belief that a bit higher rate would be better for things overall. Too high say above 1%, becomes a problem for the stock market. Not that 1% is high, but it becomes some competition for an S&P that trades an a very high multiple and a sub 2% div yield. But if the 10 yr, works back to below 50 basis points, I think that is even worse. Sure it looks better for stocks but it might create major problems down the road. Check that, major problems are awaiting down the road. It just makes the story easier to understand. i read an excellent article the other day asking a hedge fund strategist if inflation is benign, why is Gold at 2K? The answer was: " those of us who look under the hood knows what awaits. and yes not 6 months not 12 months, not 18 months, but we have seen it before. when you think you can't create inflation and you keep going down the path of printing, eventually Ka-boom.
 

Detroitgator

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Update:
Three records today...
  1. SP500 all time high
  2. NASDAQ all time high
  3. Fastest recovery from a bear market ever
The market is not the economy.
 

Concrete Helmet

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I guess when we look back on this time period(April-November 2020) in the future we'll either call it the bridge or the patch....November can't come fast enough...
 

FireFoley

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Myself, @Detroitgator and others say it all the time. The market is not the economy and the economy is not the market. The following kind of shows that.

Nearly 40% of cash-strapped Americans can’t last a month on savings

  • Nearly 40% of Americans who lost a job or had a reduction in take-home pay due to Covid-19 can’t last more than a month on savings of any kind, according to a SimplyWise survey.
  • It’s a sobering reminder that many families are teetering on the edge of financial ruin.
  • Meanwhile, federal unemployment aid ended in July and eviction protections have expired in many parts of the country.
A large share of Americans who lost income during the coronavirus pandemic have little in savings — leaving them with few options in a worst-case scenario.

Thirty-eight percent of people who have lost a job or had their income reduced due to Covid-19 couldn’t last more than a month off of savings of any kind, according to a bi-monthly survey published by SimplyWise, a technology company that helps people make Social Security decisions.

More alarming still, about 1 in 5 people couldn’t last more than two weeks off of their savings, such as an emergency stash or money earmarked for retirement, the company found.

The statistics are a sobering reminder that many Americans are teetering on the edge of financial ruin, at a time when millions of workers remain unemployed, the economy limps along and the coronavirus pandemic rages on.

‘No good answer’
“What are these people supposed to do?” said Allie Fleder, chief operating officer of SimplyWise. “There’s just no good answer to this.”

Meanwhile, sources of financial aid that had provided a respite for many Americans have expired, with no sign of a forthcoming extension.

More than 28 million Americans were collecting unemployment benefits at the end of July, according to the Labor Department. Since April, recipients had been getting an extra $600 a week from the federal government in addition to state benefits. But the extra federal payments ended last month

Protections for renters and homeowners unable to pay their monthly rent or mortgages have either lapsed or may soon do so — meaning eviction for those unable to meet their obligations.

SimplyWise conducted its online survey of 1,128 American adults in early July. That suggests respondents’ financial situation may have worsened in the intervening time once aid ran dry.

Without an extra $600 a week in unemployment aid, Americans have been getting just over $300 a week, on average, for the past several weeks. Some are receiving far less — as little as $5 a week.

Losing the $600 weekly boost puts 6 million people at risk of not being able to pay their bills this month, according to a recent survey published by the Morning Consult, a market research firm.

President Trump signed an executive measure to provide an extra $300 a week in “lost wages assistance” but that aid has only been approved in seven states. Restrictions also prevent the aid from going to those getting little from the unemployment system — arguably the people who most need the aid.
rump also signed directives earlier this month to extend student-loan relief, give a payroll-tax cut to workers and extend eviction protections. However, they likely won’t amount to much by way of actual relief or protection, with the potential exception of the student-loan measure, experts said.

Sixty-one percent of people who lost their job due to Covid-19 couldn’t come up with $500 in cash without selling something or taking out a loan, according to the SimplyWise survey — potentially helping tie over the needy but also putting them in debt. (That compares with 42% of Americans overall.)

Uncertainty for seniors
Of further concern, about 20% of Americans in their 60s lost their jobs or were furloughed as of early July, according to the survey.

These individuals will likely have a tougher time than others finding a new job, Fleder said, at a time when work is hard to find. There are currently three unemployed workers for every available job, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

These individuals may be forced to retire early and claim Social Security, absent other savings to rely on, Fleder said.

That could significantly alter the scope of their retirement, since delaying Social Security as long as possible (until age 70) is one of the best financial moves a retiree could make.

“The uncertainty for the average American, and especially for the older American, is just overwhelming,” Fleder said.



I read this stuff all the time and I always say this is the real America. I think the one that always makes me shake my head the most is that not just those affected by the Kung Flu, but of all Americans, 42% could not come up with $500 dollars for an emergency without having to sell something or take out a loan.
 

bradgator2

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I read this stuff all the time and I always say this is the real America. I think the one that always makes me shake my head the most is that not just those affected by the Kung Flu, but of all Americans, 42% could not come up with $500 dollars for an emergency without having to sell something or take out a loan.

And 99.5% of the time... it is 100% their fault, but will blame someone or something else for it.

But to be fair.... 74.3% of all statistics are made up.
 

Concrete Helmet

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Nearly 40% of cash-strapped Americans can’t last a month on savings

  • Nearly 40% of Americans who lost a job or had a reduction in take-home pay due to Covid-19 can’t last more than a month on savings of any kind, according to a SimplyWise survey.
  • It’s a sobering reminder that many families are teetering on the edge of financial ruin.
  • Meanwhile, federal unemployment aid ended in July and eviction protections have expired in many parts of the country.
This is true whether the economy is up or down. I've seen stats that show most Americans don't even have 4 month's reserves when the economy is rolling....If you give Lunchbox Larry a raise from 50k a year to 60k a year do you honestly believe he'll save the difference or even add to his 401k/IRA? Fat chance because he or his wife have already found something to spend that 10k on before it hits his first pay stub.
 

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