Disappointing Signing Day

[TheDouglas78]

Michigan whipped our azz in the last 2 weeks for SFL recruits. You're saying that Harbaugh has better SFL relationships than our staff?

Yes, it's easy to establish that relationship, when he has the connections he has. He can say he has coached in two NFC champion games, and won at Stanford. Do we have any one in our staff who can say " I have real NFL experience" like Harbaugh? Our staff apparently sucks at SFL because Richt was able to come down here and take them with limited time, and Harbaugh was able to. Probably not the only two. This is an issue with our staff, because Brand and Relationships. This was supposed to be Shannon's area, what happened?

 

[itsgr82bag8r]

LOL. Guess what, it is still there. They own us. ****, some of you are standing around acting like everything is fine in Gatorland. It's not. **** it.

My bad. What the f was I thinking? You pumpers win. We didn't have the 14th ranked class. We just didn't sign the most 3 stars ever. I'm turning the page.

You keep using that word "pumpers". Maybe your real life issues are bleeding over into your online life........

So, what do you propose we do now T? Just all freak out until next signing day? Fire Mac? What?

 

[Alagator]

You keep using that word "pumpers". Maybe your real life issues are bleeding over into your online life........

 

[Alagator]

LOL. Guess what, it is still there. They own us. ****, some of you are standing around acting like everything is fine in Gatorland. It's not. **** it.

My bad. What the f was I thinking? You pumpers win. We didn't have the 14th ranked class. We just didn't sign the most 3 stars ever. I'm turning the page.

Holy geeze... Really... go take your medz...

 

[Yankeetown]

Now I'm confused. So when you start counting your lower ranked players after 20 your ranking would go down, no? So TRex was saying we were as low as we were even counting our 20 best recruits, no?

This is what stands out to me. This is what we rank in quality of player. Not quantity.

1 Alabama 3.83
2 Ohio State 3.79
3 Georgia 3.75
4 USC 3.75
5 Florida State 3.72
6 Auburn 3.62
7 Michigan 3.61
8 Clemson 3.59
9 Mississippi 3.58
10 Notre Dame 3.57
11 LSU 3.57
12 Tennessee 3.52
13 Michigan State 3.50
14 Texas 3.50
15 Texas A&M 3.48
16 Baylor 3.41
17Oklahoma 3.37
18 Florida 3.36

This one way to look at it. But there is a reason the services only count the top 20 recruits. For example, taking a 3 star kicker doesn't hurt your ranking. We had a lot of roster spots to fill, so that naturally means that you're average stars are going to go down. When you think about it, there are only about 50 players on a team that really contribute, that's an average of about 10 per recruiting class. What's most important is how good are the the top 10-12 guys. That's why Clemson was in the title game despite averaging around 10th in recruiting over the last 4-5 years. They picked the right guys.

I know for a fact Rivals take only the top 20. True story bro!

(Not that it makes a big difference at this stage, but) It is easy to get confused on this. The "we only count the top 20 per school" rule seems to only apply to the total points calc Rivals use to rank the schools.

The per player AVERAGE we see above manifestly does NOT follow that rule, it includes all signees.

Here's what Rivals shows for UF as of a few minutes ago:


Florida
rank signees 5* 4* 3* Avg Points
14 25 1 9 13 3.36 2219

if they only counted the top 20 in the average, we would have
1 * 5
9 * 4
10 * 3
which is (5+36+30) = 71 / 20 = 3.55

But what Rivals has as our average is not 3.55, it's 3.36 ... in other words, their average is clearly diluted by all recruits ranked lower than 20th.

(No college-level math was involved in this comment.)

 

[Gatorphan]

(Not that it makes a big difference at this stage, but) It is easy to get confused on this. The "we only count the top 20 per school" rule seems to only apply to the total points calc Rivals use to rank the schools.

The per player AVERAGE we see above manifestly does NOT follow that rule, it includes all signees.

Here's what Rivals shows for UF as of a few minutes ago:


Florida
rank signees 5* 4* 3* Avg Points
14 25 1 9 13 3.36 2219

if they only counted the top 20 in the average, we would have
1 * 5
9 * 4
10 * 3
which is (5+36+30) = 71 / 20 = 3.55

But what Rivals has as our average is not 3.55, it's 3.36 ... in other words, their average is clearly diluted by all recruits ranked lower than 20th.

(No college-level math was involved in this comment.)

The class rankings only consider the top 20. The average stars is a different category.

 

[TLB]

...
But what Rivals has as our average is not 3.55, it's 3.36 ... in other words, their average is clearly diluted by all recruits ranked lower than 20th.

(No college-level math was involved in this comment.)

You are dead on - the "AVG" uses all players signed, whereas ranking is used only on the top 20. Love the last bit, so had to include it in the quote.

===================

In the meantime, I've been wasting a huge amount of my work day doing numbers which I won't dump here as I'm already known for long posts*. Cutting to the chase, I wanted to see if a top 10 recruiting class equated to a top 10 season ranking**, accounting for the years a kid was in school. I used Rivals recruiting rankings for 2011 thru 2016, and the AP rankings for end of season in those years.

Simply put, ANY top 10 recruiting class had a 33% chance of finishing in the top 10 during each of the next 3-4 yrs. If we threw Alabama out of the math as they are consistently atop everything, and focused on the rest of the mortal world, it'd be noticably lower. But here's some quick takeaways (since 2011):


Average star rating of class for top 10 recruiting class was 3.67 (UF was 3.50) Minimum was 3.34 (UF was Macs 2015 class at 3.29)
Average signees in a class for top 10 recruiting class was 24.4 (UF was 24.4)
Avg number of 5-4-3 star kids was 2.3-12.2-9.0 (UF was 1.8-10.2-11.0)

That last one highlights the argument that "star pumpers" (for lack of a better term) like T REX have been complaining about. Namely, we aren't recruiting well enough to be a top 10 recruiting class, and data shows even getting that provides only a 33% chance of being in t10 for the season. We have been averaging short a 5 star every other year and a pair of 4 stars every year. And we live in one of the most talent rich areas of the nation. Fwiw, Mac's classes were averaged 3.29 (2015) and 3.36 (2016) stars, pulling in 1.5 five stars and 7 four stars on average.

We've covered a lot of the factors leading to this (coaching changes, lack of relationships, etc). But it doesn't change the data. Since the end of the Meyer era, and through to today, we aren't t10 material. We can hope we are trending up, that Mac & Co can repair the brand, build the relationships, and develop on the field success to draw new recruits. But to date, we're treading water at best. The first two classes of recruits do not show we have a chance to compete at the top level based on star ratings - we have to get coaching in-season to start changing things.


* I'll happily post some of the number crunching I did, but this is already too long. Anyone wants it, just say so and I'll put it up somewhere.
** I should re-run the data looking for what recruiting classes ended up in the t4, since that would reflect better the CFP field.

 

[Yankeetown]

We've covered a lot of the factors leading to this (coaching changes, lack of relationships, etc). But it doesn't change the data. Since the end of the Meyer era, and through to today, we aren't t10 material. We can hope we are trending up, that Mac & Co can repair the brand, build the relationships, and develop on the field success to draw new recruits. But to date, we're treading water at best. The first two classes of recruits do not show we have a chance to compete at the top level based on star ratings - we have to get coaching in-season to start changing things.

Yep, in this case the data agrees with what we all have seen on the field.

If we want to be playing for championships ... and that's something I think we can all agree on .... then we need to bring top talent in, and then coach 'em up. Only one or the other will not be sufficient.

 

[GatorTAG]

Thank you Yankee for clearing that up and thank you TLB for at least pointing out that we are underperforming on the recruiting front. UF should never fall outside the top 10 in a state as talent rich as Florida.

 

[GatorJ]

Yes, it's easy to establish that relationship, when he has the connections he has. He can say he has coached in two NFC champion games, and won at Stanford. Do we have any one in our staff who can say " I have real NFL experience" like Harbaugh? Our staff apparently sucks at SFL because Richt was able to come down here and take them with limited time, and Harbaugh was able to. Probably not the only two. This is an issue with our staff, because Brand and Relationships. This was supposed to be Shannon's area, what happened?

Got it. So it's no longer about relationships. It's about our staff been vastly inferior. Well that's worse…

 

[TheDouglas78]

Got it. So it's no longer about relationships. It's about our staff been vastly inferior. Well that's worse…

It's our staff whose job it is to build relationships, it appears we failed in this area. I don't think Shannon should be fired, but this is his area of expertise. He did a good job with a depleted linebacker group last year. A coaches job is to first coach, second recruit. Shannon can coach, but everyone was excited about his "locking" down SFL. Apparently he didn't. Is it ok, to fire Callahan who was a poor DB coach for us, and a poor recruiter. But we can't say that Shannon didn't do what we expected him to do in SFL? Next year should be better, with a better product on the field.

Who said vastly inferior... a little whiny today?

 

[t-gator]

Agreed.

Still though... Telling people to, "Get a grip"....... is not too popular around here.

Yes, it's easy to establish that relationship, when he has the connections he has. He can say he has coached in two NFC champion games, and won at Stanford. Do we have any one in our staff who can say " I have real NFL experience" like Harbaugh? Our staff apparently sucks at SFL because Richt was able to come down here and take them with limited time, and Harbaugh was able to. Probably not the only two. This is an issue with our staff, because Brand and Relationships. This was supposed to be Shannon's area, what happened?

How passionate do you think Shannon is about being a position coach at Florida? With our depth chart and his background, do you think he gave his best effort?

 

[TLB]

Who Won Signing Day?

1. Lids

New Lids employees are probably confused when a 6'4 high schooler comes in and starts looking at hats that don't fit any conceivable Venn diagram of sports fan. Who would be in the market for an Alabama hat and an Auburn hat and a Notre Dame hat? Nobody likes all three of those teams! But the experienced people at Lids who have seen a Signing Day or two know this is going to be a great sale.

You're probably thinking these kids will return the hats of the schools to which they don't ultimately commit, but Lids knows this isn't true. Why? Because the parking in this mall is always terrible and a high school student has less than a 10% chance of holding on to a receipt for more than a week. His parents are just going to pass them off as unwanted gifts. Didn't you say you liked Miami once, Uncle Dave? No? Too bad, Merry Christmas.

...

3. The God of the Abrahamic Faiths

Not every recruit thanks the Lord during his commitment, but a good number do. By comparison, who's out there thanking Zoroaster? How much love is Odin getting from the five stars? How many give credit to the embrace of scientific inquiry and freedom from the sexual tyranny of organized religion for their athletic accomplishments? Not one, Christopher Hitchens. Not ONE.

4. David Cutcliffe

I don't know where Duke finished in the recruiting rankings or if they got any major commitment who was expected to sign with a powerhouse or how well they filled their needs. What I do know is this:

8:27 a.m. -- Signing day is done for Duke. The two early enrollees and 19 letters from guys signing today are in

— Laura Keeley (@laurakeeley) February 3, 2016

While other coaches were huddled around a fax machine all day, David Cutcliffe was taking a nap on the porch and listening to old episodes of Car Talk.

5. Bulldog Truthers

I'm supposed to get excited about a linebacker who commits to Georgia by pulling a damn BOSTON TERRIER out of a box? How's he gonna read an offensive alignment if he can't even make basic breed differentiations? Might as well go to Auburn where they think eagles and tigers are in the same genus. This is an embarrassment and it's why I already think Kirby Smart's not meeting expectations.

6. Baseball

Oh wait, no they didn't, because they don't take the opportunity to hijack Signing Day by making it the first day teams can sign high schoolers to million dollar contracts. God, you're so dumb, Baseball.

...

 

[GatorJ]

It's our staff whose job it is to build relationships, it appears we failed in this area. I don't think Shannon should be fired, but this is his area of expertise. He did a good job with a depleted linebacker group last year. A coaches job is to first coach, second recruit. Shannon can coach, but everyone was excited about his "locking" down SFL. Apparently he didn't. Is it ok, to fire Callahan who was a poor DB coach for us, and a poor recruiter. But we can't say that Shannon didn't do what we expected him to do in SFL? Next year should be better, with a better product on the field.

Who said vastly inferior... a little whiny today?

Whiny? You're the one whining that our poor coaches aren't getting a fair assessment.

It's not their fault they don't have great relationships.Harbaugh is able to point to the fact that he coached in the NFL. How are we supposed to compete against that? How we supposed to compete against Kirby Smart? He already has relationships!



Ridiculous.

 

[TheDouglas78]

It's not their fault they don't have great relationships.Harbaugh is able to point to the fact that he coached in the NFL. How are we supposed to compete against that? How we supposed to compete against Kirby Smart? He already has relationships!

His relationships are so great he got beat by the coach at Michigan and Richt, when that was his area and he was been working those relationships for a year for us. And for how long with just being in that area and as Miami's former head coach? It's not like he is a guy who was developing relationships in South Florida for just one year.

You make it sound like we have never had to compete for players when our coaches were just college coaches and the other coach had NFL experience. Are we just supposed to give up every time that is the case. Oh Harbaugh is going after him, time for plan B?

Now 2017 is the real year will see McElwain's true program, it will be year three with two years of relationships. But Shannon in South Florida should have been better. There will be changes on the staff, because his staff was put together so late in the 2014 season/offseason. The 2016 class is solid, not great. But it's just the start of year two of a rebuild, too much damage has been done to our brand and our roster over the last 6 years previously. The staff is in the process of making up ground.

 

[WinterGarden Gator]

Shannon got some badass recruits to Arkansas, so I agree...he has to be able to get a few to UF. Just sayin'.

 

[TLB]

One question that comes to mind, we had 13 EE's this winter. That is a record for UF and it comes with the expectation that it will pay dividends on player development.

Does anyone know where to find the records of how many EE's UF has taken by year, or how many other programs typically take? Our class sizes are on par with the t10 recruiting classes, and the differential on star ratings has been noted, but do we have visibility to historical EE numbers?

 

[Slevin]

A+ offensive recruiting, d- defensive recruiting. Atrocious effort to consistently stay on top of the top overall talent in the country. We were lasts to offer, lasts to call, and just not aggressive enough.

 

[URGatorBait]

A+ offensive recruiting, d- defensive recruiting. Atrocious effort to consistently stay on top of the top overall talent in the country. We were lasts to offer, lasts to call, and just not aggressive enough.

Oh myyyyyy gaaaaaawwwwwddddd

 

[Slevin]

Oh myyyyyy gaaaaaawwwwwddddd

Hey baby missed you