- Oct 6, 2016
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- 784
With the commitments last week of defensive end Derick Hunter (4-star, 205th national rank) to Florida State and cornerback Derek Stingley (5-star, 15th national rank) to LSU, I tweeted out something that was apparently controversial.
Immediately Gator Twitter leapt into action to let me know that these players were divas who weren’t wanted by Florida or that Florida pulling a player out of his home state was near impossible and shouldn’t be held against this staff.
It was an interesting reaction. If everything is indeed going well, then why the need to shout down my opinion?
Then defensive end Nathan Pickering (4-star, 47th national rank) committed to Mississippi State. Suddenly, all excuses were gone.
Yes, it is difficult to pull a player out of his home state. But Mullen got beat out by his old school for a player with whom he should have had a much better relationship with than the new Bulldogs’ staff. And Florida had clearly emphasized the recruitment of Pickering.
All of sudden, fans were asking me whether Mullen is a terrible recruiter and starting to call Florida “3-star U” to counter the people who insist that we need to trust Mullen’s process.
What I’ve found is that the truth is somewhere in between. So this is my attempt to take a balanced look at what has transpired thus far and what we can expect going forward.
Where does Florida stand today?
Much like the look at recruiting that I took in late April, Florida is behind. That’s not an opinion. It’s a fact based on where Florida is compared to its rivals.
Not only is Florida on the low end in terms of number of recruits, but the Gators also are on the low end when considering the level of talent. Only 30% of the Gators commits are in the 247Sports composite top-300 and none of them are in the top-100.
Florida isn’t just behind Alabama and Georgia. The Gators are behind Mississippi State and LSU. And this isn’t just a matter of Florida having less overall commits, as even Mississippi State (89.41) and LSU (89.37) have a higher overall talent grade than Florida (88.48).
But Florida is in better shape than its national ranking of 27th would suggest. Ten teams currently ranked in front have lower talent grades than Florida, some significantly so. But that still puts the Gators at 17th which, quite honestly, is where they deserve to be based on the current list of commits.
This wouldn’t be a huge deal if it were just Ohio State, Michigan and Clemson who were reeling in the big-time recruits. But these are teams that Florida is going to have to face this year – and in the case of Florida State, Georgia and LSU – every year. The Gators risk falling further behind if things don’t turn around quickly.
Timing Matters
But it’s only June. That’s the refrain that fans defending Mullen use. It’s also the refrain that frustrates those on the other side who just want to see Florida get better while watching other programs reel in big-time recruits.
If we look at the commitment dates of 5-star candidates (87 players) from 2016-2018, what we see is that only about 40 percent of them commit prior to October 1 and the vast majority commit between December 1 and National Signing Day. The message is clear: there is still time.
However, this year is a little bit different now that teams have had a year to adjust to the early signing period. Alabama – in particular – didn’t feel that it had approached the process correctly last year and vowed to focus on getting commitments from elite candidates earlier. The Tide – and much of the nation – has followed that pattern.
As of June 24, almost 56 percent of the 5-star candidates have committed. The number isn’t much lower for 4-star candidates, as over half (50.2%) have committed as well. Overall, 183 of the top 361 players have already committed.
That means that we are halfway through the recruiting process. Again, I think that suggests that there is still time to salvage a class that is currently struggling. But it also indicates that programs exhibiting slow starts need to start closing elite candidates quickly.
It will be fascinating to see whether this trend of accelerated commitment rates continues before the early signing day or whether things slow down until after the December 1 timeframe. I suspect that teams that wait until December are going to struggle.
Immediately Gator Twitter leapt into action to let me know that these players were divas who weren’t wanted by Florida or that Florida pulling a player out of his home state was near impossible and shouldn’t be held against this staff.
It was an interesting reaction. If everything is indeed going well, then why the need to shout down my opinion?
Then defensive end Nathan Pickering (4-star, 47th national rank) committed to Mississippi State. Suddenly, all excuses were gone.
Yes, it is difficult to pull a player out of his home state. But Mullen got beat out by his old school for a player with whom he should have had a much better relationship with than the new Bulldogs’ staff. And Florida had clearly emphasized the recruitment of Pickering.
All of sudden, fans were asking me whether Mullen is a terrible recruiter and starting to call Florida “3-star U” to counter the people who insist that we need to trust Mullen’s process.
What I’ve found is that the truth is somewhere in between. So this is my attempt to take a balanced look at what has transpired thus far and what we can expect going forward.
Where does Florida stand today?
Much like the look at recruiting that I took in late April, Florida is behind. That’s not an opinion. It’s a fact based on where Florida is compared to its rivals.
Not only is Florida on the low end in terms of number of recruits, but the Gators also are on the low end when considering the level of talent. Only 30% of the Gators commits are in the 247Sports composite top-300 and none of them are in the top-100.
Florida isn’t just behind Alabama and Georgia. The Gators are behind Mississippi State and LSU. And this isn’t just a matter of Florida having less overall commits, as even Mississippi State (89.41) and LSU (89.37) have a higher overall talent grade than Florida (88.48).
But Florida is in better shape than its national ranking of 27th would suggest. Ten teams currently ranked in front have lower talent grades than Florida, some significantly so. But that still puts the Gators at 17th which, quite honestly, is where they deserve to be based on the current list of commits.
This wouldn’t be a huge deal if it were just Ohio State, Michigan and Clemson who were reeling in the big-time recruits. But these are teams that Florida is going to have to face this year – and in the case of Florida State, Georgia and LSU – every year. The Gators risk falling further behind if things don’t turn around quickly.
Timing Matters
But it’s only June. That’s the refrain that fans defending Mullen use. It’s also the refrain that frustrates those on the other side who just want to see Florida get better while watching other programs reel in big-time recruits.
If we look at the commitment dates of 5-star candidates (87 players) from 2016-2018, what we see is that only about 40 percent of them commit prior to October 1 and the vast majority commit between December 1 and National Signing Day. The message is clear: there is still time.
However, this year is a little bit different now that teams have had a year to adjust to the early signing period. Alabama – in particular – didn’t feel that it had approached the process correctly last year and vowed to focus on getting commitments from elite candidates earlier. The Tide – and much of the nation – has followed that pattern.
As of June 24, almost 56 percent of the 5-star candidates have committed. The number isn’t much lower for 4-star candidates, as over half (50.2%) have committed as well. Overall, 183 of the top 361 players have already committed.
That means that we are halfway through the recruiting process. Again, I think that suggests that there is still time to salvage a class that is currently struggling. But it also indicates that programs exhibiting slow starts need to start closing elite candidates quickly.
It will be fascinating to see whether this trend of accelerated commitment rates continues before the early signing day or whether things slow down until after the December 1 timeframe. I suspect that teams that wait until December are going to struggle.