Hurricane Dorian

[URGatorBait]

In reading this I can almost feel you hoping for it, that Florida is completely trashed by it. It's sick.

You're right, It's going to be a nice beach day

 

[Musclepug]

 

[RiverRat]

A cat 5 now and projected path has it moving west some, wish the damn thing would take its ass on out to sea, this could get ugly.

 

[Gator Fever]

A cat 5 now and projected path has it moving west some, wish the damn thing would take its ass on out to sea, this could get ugly.

Looks like I am getting really lucky - 70 mph probably for 24 plus hours instead of a direct hit Cat 5...

 

[Jack o' Diamonds]

Now 175mph approaching the Bahamas..

 

[SeabeeGator]

Now 175mph approaching the Bahamas..

Also protected to miss the east coast, which is good news. There’s a reason the coast of Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina are shaped like they are. Those currents grab ahold of hurricanes and shoot them north east almost every time. It’s takes a strange set of atmospheric conditions to defy them.

 

[ThreatMatrix]

Bahamas getting pounded harder than little t's mom on a Saturday night. Stay the fck away from me. Nothing sucks as much as not having power for days on end. Post hurricane it's extra hot, usually no clouds or breeze for days. It's like living in the middle ages... or under a socialist government.

I live in Orlando, have a condo on Cocoa beach, My one sister lives in Jax Beach and my other in Charleston SC. One way or the other somebody's gonna be inconvenienced.

 

[gatorev12]

It's started raining in Jacksonville.
Time for me to start panicking and impulse-buying tons of snacks/beer.

 

[Gator By Marriage]

It's started raining in Jacksonville.
Time for me to start panicking and impulse-buying tons of snacks/beer.

My son went to the grocery store in Gainesville Friday and told me he literally got the last loaf of bread.

 

[LeeForThree]

180 MPH now hitting the Bahamas

 

[SeabeeGator]

180 MPH now hitting the Bahamas

Pretty wild. Gusts over 200. Thing is like a massive tornado right now.

 

[SeabeeGator]

180 MPH now hitting the Bahamas

Pretty wild. Gusts over 200. Thing is like a massive tornado right now.

 

[gatormandan]

That's double windy.

 

[ThreatMatrix]

Hurricane Dorian has been upgraded to Ominous.

 

[LeeForThree]

Pretty wild. Gusts over 200. Thing is like a massive tornado right now.

Went up again to 185 MPH sustained winds. This is crazy considering where the storm is

 

[Captain Sasquatch]

The crappy part now is the intensity of them all. Hotter water equals stronger storms. I’ll take 20 Cat 1 hurricanes, I don’t enjoy the major ones.

There is no data to support this conclusion. There are plenty of opinions though. Is Dorian going to be a major hurricane like Harvey or Katrina? Please visit the National Hurricane Center website, they have plenty of educational studies showing exactly what all these named storms have done in the past. About the only thing you can say is increasing is the amount of property damage, which is mainly due to the ever increasing number of people and amount of infrastructure in the strike zone.

Just wanted to revisit this.

 

[Bait'n Gator]

 

[SeabeeGator]

Just wanted to revisit this.

Do you actually research or just spout stuff?

Global Warming and Hurricanes – Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory

Relevant to your statement:

“In summary, neither our model projections for the 21st century nor our analyses of trends in Atlantic hurricane and tropical storm activity support the notion that greenhouse gas-induced warming leads to large increases in either tropical storm or overall hurricane numbers in the Atlantic. While one of our modeling studies projects a large (~100%) increase in Atlantic category 4-5 hurricanes over the 21st century, we estimate that such an increase would not be detectable until the latter half of the century, and we still have only low confidence that such an increase will occur in the Atlantic basin, based on an updated survey of subsequent modeling studies by our and other groups. A recent study finds that the observed increase in an Atlantic hurricane rapid intensification metric over 1982-2009 is highly unusual compared to one climate model’s simulation of internal multidecadal climate variability, and is consistent in sign with that model’s expected long-term response to anthropogenic forcing. These climate change detection results for rapid intensification metrics are suggestive but not definitive, and more research is needed for more confident conclusions.

Therefore, we conclude that it is premature to conclude with high confidence that human activity–and particularly greenhouse warming–has already caused a detectable change in Atlantic hurricane activity. (“Detectable” here means the change is large enough to be distinguishable from the variability due to natural causes.) However, human activity may have already caused some some changes that are not yet confidently detectable due to the small magnitude of the changes or observation limitations, or due to limitations in modeling and physical understanding (e.g., aerosol effects on regional climate, uncertainties in simulation of Atlantic multidecadal variability).”

TL ; DR version - it’s premature to conclude anything about mankind’s influence on tropical storms or intensity but it’s possible a slight change may have occurred. The study goes on to state that all current forecasts are model based.

Additionally...

Are Category 4 and 5 hurricanes increasing in number? | Weather Underground

Summary points from the article:

“1. Though there is evidence both for and against the existence of a detectable anthropogenic signal in the tropical cyclone climate record to date, no firm conclusion can be made on this point.

2. No individual tropical cyclone can be directly attributed to climate change.

3. The recent increase in societal impact from tropical cyclones has largely been caused by rising concentrations of population and infrastructure in coastal regions.

4. Tropical cyclone wind-speed monitoring has changed dramatically over the last few decades, leading to difficulties in determining accurate trends.

5. There is an observed multi-decadal variability of tropical cyclones in some regions whose causes, whether natural, anthropogenic or a combination, are currently being debated. This variability makes detecting any long-term trends in tropical cyclone activity difficult.

6. It is likely that some increase in tropical cyclone peak wind-speed and rainfall will occur if the climate continues to warm. Model studies and theory project a 3-5% increase in wind-speed per degree Celsius increase of tropical sea surface temperatures.

7. There is an inconsistency between the small changes in wind-speed projected by theory and modeling versus large changes reported by some observational studies.

8. Although recent climate model simulations project a decrease or no change in global tropical cyclone numbers in a warmer climate, there is low confidence in this projection. In addition, it is unknown how tropical cyclone tracks or areas of impact will change in the future.

9. Large regional variations exist in methods used to monitor tropical cyclones. Also, most regions have no measurements by instrumented aircraft. These significant limitations will continue to make detection of trends difficult.

10. If the projected rise in sea level due to global warming occurs, then the vulnerability to tropical cyclone storm surge flooding would increase.”

Hopefully you learned something today.

 

[rogdochar]

In reading this I can almost feel you hoping for it, that Florida is completely trashed by it. It's sick.

Didn't Bill Bahr wish for Dorian to hit Mara Lago ?

 

[Mr2Bits]

View from within the eye....worst is yet to still hit!