Recruiting 2020 Recruiting Thread: Gervon Dexter gets 5th Star on Rivals
- Thread starter LongTooth
- Start date
- Status
- Jun 9, 2014
- 78,529
- 111,044
Founding Member
I agree completely with this. in fact the stats also suggest that a high four-star in a five-star are basically the same, just as low 4 and a high 3 or basically the same.
Of course the butter special 1000th plus ranked low 3 stars are drastically different from a high 3 star.
- Sep 8, 2014
- 25,449
- 59,476
I've read that they expect Brown to be a 300 pounder within a year or two. He's athletic as hell, so he would be fine at SDE at 280+. It seems the consensus is Brown won't have a problem gaining weight.
I think the staff wants to add one more heavy DL. We're in on some DE's that are currently in the 235-245 range (which is much better than the 208lbs WDE's we've been bringing in like Summerall), but I think these heavier DE's will be expected to be SDE's eventually.
- Oct 15, 2018
- 6,085
- 16,195
Once he burrows in he's like a deer tick, and that's before he starts down voting every post you make in every thread. Weird cat for sure.
Good Gawd you two are a couple of Sensitive Sallies with Sand in your Vaginas.
Itraz ... you are a constant Debbie Downer who always spins crap negative. Like I said, you have valid points, but because your tune is the same crap over and over you just drive the bus over yourself. Most the time I just skip over your posts and dont read because I aint missing nothing you aint already complained about before. Truth.
Durty ... whatevs ... I just have fun with you. I actually like a lot of things you have said but just throw the stone at you anyways. I do it to @Swamp Donkey all the time ... and he gets it and I think laughs at it.
- Aug 12, 2014
- 5,846
- 15,818
Why would Goods drop to a consensus 3star?
- Nov 12, 2017
- 1,602
- 3,947
Another interesting fact about stars, and this argument is a bit on the pumperish side, along the line of the dreaded "trust the coaches".
Will Miles tried to look at whether Mullen develops players better than his peers. On average, a 3 star player has a chance of about 5.9% of making it to the NFL. On the other hand, it seems Mullen's 3 star recruits get drafted to the NFL at a rate of about 8.3%, which is significantly more than the average for other coaches.
Even for his 4 star players. The average ranking of his 4 star recruit is 197. On average those would get drafted at a rate of about 15.3% in college football, but yet under Mullen they got drafted at a rate of 18.9%.
His takeaway was that there maybe an argument that Mullen is an above average player developer. I think what Will Miles may have missed, is that Mullen could also be a better judge of talent than his peers on average. Since we know that overall the quality of players lower than roughly 60-90 practically plateaus, then maybe Mullen and co are just better at picking them too?
Out of his 12 2* recruits that he recruited in the past, 2 of them made the NFL which is crazy.
Again, I am not saying that the 3 star butters special is going to be as good as a 4 star / 5 star. But perhaps a 4 star ranked 200 that he recruits will probably do better than a similarly ranked player recruited by someone else.
TIFWIW.
How much better is Dan Mullen at developing players than his peers? - Read and Reaction
Will Miles tried to look at whether Mullen develops players better than his peers. On average, a 3 star player has a chance of about 5.9% of making it to the NFL. On the other hand, it seems Mullen's 3 star recruits get drafted to the NFL at a rate of about 8.3%, which is significantly more than the average for other coaches.
Even for his 4 star players. The average ranking of his 4 star recruit is 197. On average those would get drafted at a rate of about 15.3% in college football, but yet under Mullen they got drafted at a rate of 18.9%.
His takeaway was that there maybe an argument that Mullen is an above average player developer. I think what Will Miles may have missed, is that Mullen could also be a better judge of talent than his peers on average. Since we know that overall the quality of players lower than roughly 60-90 practically plateaus, then maybe Mullen and co are just better at picking them too?
Out of his 12 2* recruits that he recruited in the past, 2 of them made the NFL which is crazy.
Again, I am not saying that the 3 star butters special is going to be as good as a 4 star / 5 star. But perhaps a 4 star ranked 200 that he recruits will probably do better than a similarly ranked player recruited by someone else.
TIFWIW.
How much better is Dan Mullen at developing players than his peers? - Read and Reaction
- Aug 28, 2014
- 16,541
- 26,097
- Jun 11, 2014
- 21,140
- 33,955
Founding Member
5 Who could flip
Rivals.com - Rivals100 Five-Star Challenge: Five who could flip
RANK
5.9
62
NATIONAL
9
STATE
5
POSITION
SAVION
COLLINS
6'3" | 265 LBS | DT
SOUTHWEST
MIAMI, FL
CLASS OF 2021
VERBAL COMMIT
9/17/2018
MIAMI (FL)
When it comes to underclassmen in the state of Florida, fans of recruiting often say the first commitment it just the start of a prospect’s recruitment. So despite Collins having pledged to The U last September, fans of schools from around the country are still keeping a close eye on his recruitment. As far as the biggest threat to flip him now? Florida is a major factor and the Gators continues to push to get him on campus and on their commitment list. Whether he flips or not, the drama isn’t over for Collins, who is still likely to take several visits before now and when it’s time to sign in 2021.
Rivals.com - Rivals100 Five-Star Challenge: Five who could flip
RANK
5.9
62
NATIONAL
9
STATE
5
POSITION
SAVION
COLLINS
6'3" | 265 LBS | DT
SOUTHWEST
MIAMI, FL
CLASS OF 2021
VERBAL COMMIT
9/17/2018
MIAMI (FL)
When it comes to underclassmen in the state of Florida, fans of recruiting often say the first commitment it just the start of a prospect’s recruitment. So despite Collins having pledged to The U last September, fans of schools from around the country are still keeping a close eye on his recruitment. As far as the biggest threat to flip him now? Florida is a major factor and the Gators continues to push to get him on campus and on their commitment list. Whether he flips or not, the drama isn’t over for Collins, who is still likely to take several visits before now and when it’s time to sign in 2021.
gatorkev85
Well-Known Member
- Nov 24, 2015
- 1,544
- 1,903
This chart makes me feel good knowing more than half of our commits rank below the 300 mark. What can you do though. Hope play better than the chart.Just to add to this point, the drop off in how often talent gets drafted to the NFL is quite significant once you go below the top 50. In fact the chances of say players ranked 60-100 is barely at 20%, while those in the 286-300 is about ~12-13%. Stars definitely matter, but rankings from 90-300 don't really matter as much. I just think it probably does not matter as much if you dropped off to a very high 3 star or upgraded to a low 4 star.
How often do highly ranked recruits work out and what does that mean for Florida's 2019 season? - Read and Reaction
- Aug 28, 2014
- 16,541
- 26,097
Miami commit = future Florida Signee
- Jul 30, 2014
- 10,131
- 16,377
- Sep 8, 2014
- 25,449
- 59,476
I'm not saying he'd drop, but if high 3-star kids move up somebody has to drop down (right?). They don't just increase the size of the 4-star range do they? I think he was also implying that we (UF) would get screwed again - like they did last year w/ Kimbrough (dropping him from a low 4-star to a high 3-star) because some of these sights (247 especially) has a heavy UGA influence.
- Sep 8, 2014
- 25,449
- 59,476
Hopefully he gets the 5th star...
The Opening Finals: 10 players on the cusp of a fifth star
The Opening Finals: 10 players on the cusp of a fifth star
Gervon Dexter, DT, Lake Wales (Fla.) High School
Florida commit
Current rank: 38
Dexter is huge with really rare athleticism and movement skills. He’s also relatively new to football and the production is still catching up with his talent level. It will be telling how much consistency and polish he can show in Texas because he certainly has a five-star body type and athletic profile.
The Opening Finals: 10 players on the cusp of a fifth star
The Opening Finals: 10 players on the cusp of a fifth star
Gervon Dexter, DT, Lake Wales (Fla.) High School
Florida commit
Current rank: 38
Dexter is huge with really rare athleticism and movement skills. He’s also relatively new to football and the production is still catching up with his talent level. It will be telling how much consistency and polish he can show in Texas because he certainly has a five-star body type and athletic profile.
- Mar 27, 2016
- 4,890
- 3,201
Why? If he gets a 5th star, he won't be any better a prospect than he is without it. He might attract more attention from people trying to steal him or he might start thinking UF owes him some how.
As far as I can see about the only reasons to hope he gets the fifth star is for his publicity or if you think a higher ranked class might attract some extra players to UF for 2020 or beyond. UF of course has very few slots open for 2020 now.
- Nov 20, 2017
- 921
- 1,902
Any good estimates of how big of a class we are planning to take?
- Jun 11, 2014
- 21,140
- 33,955
Founding Member
He has people banging down his door regardless. Getting his fifth star is not going to open up more suitors.
Now where it will help us is with optics.
- Status
