Recruiting 2020 Recruiting Thread: Gervon Dexter gets 5th Star on Rivals

[GatorJ]

Any good estimates of how big of a class we are planning to take?

I haven’t seen recent numbers but last I saw several months ago it was around 24.

 

[GatorJ]

Hopefully he gets the 5th star...

The Opening Finals: 10 players on the cusp of a fifth star

The Opening Finals: 10 players on the cusp of a fifth star

Gervon Dexter, DT, Lake Wales (Fla.) High School

Florida commit

Current rank: 38

Dexter is huge with really rare athleticism and movement skills. He’s also relatively new to football and the production is still catching up with his talent level. It will be telling how much consistency and polish he can show in Texas because he certainly has a five-star body type and athletic profile.

247 is retarded. How do they not have Bowman as a 5*?

 

[BMF]

Any good estimates of how big of a class we are planning to take?

Most of the mods think we take 24, but we have room for up to 27 (we got Black's spot back as an initial counter since he never enrolled). The speculation is we'll take a couple/3 transfers to get to 27.

 

[UFHealthGator]

247 is retarded. How do they not have Bowman as a 5*?

Because for whatever reason, they only have the top 12 prospects as 5 stars. Players ranked 13 and lower they rated as 4 stars. He is ranked 22nd best player on their list, compared to 17 on the composite, so not a big difference there.

 

[maheo30]

247 is retarded. How do they not have Bowman as a 5*?

His weight. They don't give out 5 stars to RBs his size.

 

[GatorJ]

Because for whatever reason, they only have the top 12 prospects as 5 stars. Players ranked 13 and lower they rated as 4 stars. He is ranked 22nd best player on their list, compared to 17 on the composite.

I understand that. But five star is supposed to mean something specifically. It’s not an arbitrary number. This idea of we’re going to have 30 5 stars this year doesn’t mean anything. If you only have 25 five stars in a year, then you should only have 25 five stars. If another year you have 30 5 stars then you should have 30 5 stars. It should not be a set amount. That negates what being a five star means.

That is similar to what Scout did. I saw one time Scout had nearly fifty 5 stars in a year.

Bowman is a 5* period. The Open isn’t going to change that.

 

[GatorJ]

I understand that. But five star is supposed to mean something specifically. It’s not an arbitrary number. This idea of we’re going to have 30 5 stars this year doesn’t mean anything. If you only have 25 five stars in a year, then you should only have 25 five stars. If another year you have 30 5 stars then you should have 30 5 stars. It should not be a set amount. That negates what being a five star means.

That is similar to what Scout did. I saw one time Scout had nearly fifty 5 stars in a year.

Bowman is a 5* period. The Open isn’t going to change that.

And by the way I do get shuffling between four and five star a little bit. It’s one reason why rivals waits until the end of their junior seasons before running a full 5* list. There is a lot of movement during the junior season.

Of course there’s another huge change toward the end of the senior season because a lot of kids will blossom or explode during summer camps their senior season. And kids that you thought were five stars do not to perform like five stars in the presence of similarly talented athletes.

So for instance, I get Dexter not having his fifth star because he’s been a recent explosion on the circuit and his game film does not quite support it yet.

But Bowman? He’s absolutely dominated games and camps. He crushed STA in the championship.

 

[UFHealthGator]

I understand that. But five star is supposed to mean something specifically. It’s not an arbitrary number. This idea of we’re going to have 30 5 stars this year doesn’t mean anything. If you only have 25 five stars in a year, then you should only have 25 five stars. If another year you have 30 5 stars then you should have 30 5 stars. It should not be a set amount. That negates what being a five star means.

That is similar to what Scout did. I saw one time Scout had nearly fifty 5 stars in a year.

Bowman is a 5* period. The Open isn’t going to change that.

I'm honestly not sure what every service does to determine where the 5 stars end and the 4 stars begin. Looks like Rivals has its top 25 players as 5 stars, as opposed to the 12 on 247. Any recruiting gurus care to shed a light on that?

 

[BMF]

And by the way I do get shuffling between four and five star a little bit. It’s one reason why rivals waits until the end of their junior seasons before running a full 5* list. There is a lot of movement during the junior season.

Of course there’s another huge change toward the end of the senior season because a lot of kids will blossom or explode during summer camps their senior season. And kids that you thought were five stars do not to perform like five stars in the presence of similarly talented athletes.

So for instance, I get Dexter not having his fifth star because he’s been a recent explosion on the circuit and his game film does not quite support it yet.

But Bowman? He’s absolutely dominated games and camps. He crushed STA in the championship.

Dexter is ranked 98th on Rivals and 42nd on 247 composite and 38th on 247 and 42nd on ESPN. There's no telling how these sites do it. I know the consensus here is that Rivals is best, so there's that....

 

[AnObfuscator]

I haven’t seen recent numbers but last I saw several months ago it was around 24.

Most of the mods think we take 24, but we have room for up to 27 (we got Black's spot back as an initial counter since he never enrolled). The speculation is we'll take a couple/3 transfers to get to 27.

Cool, thanks. So we have room for 7, maybe up to 10 commits. This class feels like it's in pretty good shape overall, given the time we have left to close it out. I fell much better about our recruiting than I did at this point last year.

 

[Ancient Reptile]

Why? If he gets a 5th star, he won't be any better a prospect than he is without it. He might attract more attention from people trying to steal him or he might start thinking UF owes him some how.

As far as I can see about the only reasons to hope he gets the fifth star is for his publicity or if you think a higher ranked class might attract some extra players to UF for 2020 or beyond. UF of course has very few slots open for 2020 now.

The astrologers only care about stars. They don't care about talent. Notice also the over reaction your perfectly reasonable post elicited. It says a lot about both their intellects and their capacity for self awareness.

 

[InstiGATOR1]

I'm honestly not sure what every service does to determine where the 5 stars end and the 4 stars begin. Looks like Rivals has its top 25 players as 5 stars, as opposed to the 12 on 247. Any recruiting gurus care to shed a light on that?

The 247composite appears to make players who are above .8900 4* and those below 3*. Right now they have 9 guys at .8900 exactly and all of them are listed as 3*.

As far as 4* and 5* composite they appear to have a cut off around .9850 but the last two years have one player slightly below that as a 5*. BTW, since the composite is an average when there is agreement on the top players there tend to be more guys .9850 than when there is more disagreement about who is among the top players.

Finally some of the louder voices here believe that Rivals is the gold standard and mostly look their for rankings.

 

[InstiGATOR1]

On average, a 3 star player has a chance of about 5.9% of making it to the NFL. On the other hand, it seems Mullen's 3 star recruits get drafted to the NFL at a rate of about 8.3%, which is significantly more than the average for other coaches.

Significant has a statistical meaning that some might think you are saying in this case. Of course if you do not have the standard error for each number you can not run a test of whether those two numbers are statistically significantly different than each other. I suspect the variance of Mullen 3* recruits being drafted is pretty high and similarly for the NFL as a whole (assuming that to compare oranges to oranges by success you mean drafted as with Mullen 3* recruits) meaning those two numbers could easily be do to random chance.

 

[ThreatMatrix]

I don't care about stars. I care about ranking: Top 250 or bust.
We have 6 top 250
Clemson 15
Bama 14
LSU 13
UGay 7 Hmmm
halFaSU Shockingly 6

247 has us with 8 4*s and 9 3*s. BTW getting to 2/3rds blue chippers is going to be tough.
Player ranks are:
42nd
67th
165th
194th
211th
216th
Followed by Ham & Eggers. (Exceptions noted)
It will be interesting to see when/if they move much.

 

[UFHealthGator]

Significant has a statistical meaning that some might think you are saying in this case. Of course if you do not have the standard error for each number you can not run a test of whether those two numbers are statistically significantly different than each other. I suspect the variance of Mullen 3* recruits being drafted is pretty high and similarly for the NFL as a whole (assuming that to compare oranges to oranges by success you mean drafted as with Mullen 3* recruits) meaning those two numbers could easily be do to random chance.

I agree. The difference is numerically significant, but may not be statistically significant as you pointed out. Another counter argument is that he did not compare the average recruiting ranking of his 3 star players, to all 3 star players overall. He may have just been getting the upper end of 3 star players which is simply why he is sending more to the NFL as a percentage. So there are a few chinks in that logic.

 

[InstiGATOR1]

I agree. The difference is numerically significant, but may not be statistically significant as you pointed out. Another counter argument is that he did not compare the average recruiting ranking of his 3 star players, to all 3 star players overall. He may have just been getting the upper end of 3 star players which is simply why he is sending more to the NFL as a percentage. So there are a few chinks in that logic.

A study I keep thinking of but never finding the time for is to see if 3* players signed by UF, U A L, Ohio State, UTx, etc. all the top recruiting names, turn out better than the average 3* player. Working for this effect would be the idea that coaches can identify players better than recruiting services. Working against this effect would be those 3* players are having to compete against more 4* and 5* players at the big recruiting brand schools.

 

[Slevin]

Why? If he gets a 5th star, he won't be any better a prospect than he is without it. He might attract more attention from people trying to steal him or he might start thinking UF owes him some how.

As far as I can see about the only reasons to hope he gets the fifth star is for his publicity or if you think a higher ranked class might attract some extra players to UF for 2020 or beyond. UF of course has very few slots open for 2020 now.

Those are the exact reasons you want him to be a five star. Are you kidding?

 

[Slevin]

 

[Slevin]

 

[Slevin]

Because 247 is run by butt-sniffers?

He’s a 4 star elsewhere though. Top 250 on rivals but 3 on 247 and ESPN. Rivals loves him and has actually seen him perform.