I bought last weeks 6mn at 4.82 too.....it's just too easy not to until this funk clears which may take a while save for the little bear rallies here and there
Just to quickly answer your question, I do not have any foreign (especially Brazil or Latin America) mining or hard commodity companies. Admittedly they are very enticing with those yields, but I just can't bring myself to go into that area of the world given those govt's. But I can get close to those yields with MLP's. Yes they are debt laden but at least I know what they do and can see if they can cover their debt load. I do have some Shell and some other European stocks, such as drugs. Also their are some American common stocks that approach those yields that do cell phone service and sell cigarettes. Little capital appreciation, but I know what they do and where they are located.I bought last weeks 6mn at 4.82 too.....it's just too easy not to until this funk clears which may take a while save for the little bear rallies here and there
Do you ever consider the foreign dividend giants? I own a little Gerdau, Vale, and BHP all of which pay around 10% dividend depending on the market.....all 3 have outperformed anything else in my trading fund ( up 15-25%)over the last 2 months besides silver....Rio Tinto is another one but I don't own that one yet.
I'm waiting for what I think will be a 20-30% drop in overall stock prices around April/May. Powell will raise rates once, maybe twice by .25 in my opinion but when the market figures out he's not going to start lowering them right away it throws a fit.....and we'll be in a recession too.
I also believe that even with the small raises at the beginning of this year the DXY sags below 100 keeping metals and mining(general and metal mining) some of the better overall producers. In the late summer and early fall the "cocaine" withdrawls will be mentioned by one of the Fed mouthpieces and the market starts to rebound. Talking with some pretty smart RE people and I concur we'll see 4.75-5.25 mortgage rates by the end of this year/beginning of 2024 too.
Gold, sniffing this out will go to somewhere in the 2600-2800 range and pull silver into the mid 30's with it.
******DISCLAIMER******* My predictions are right just the same as a stopped watch is right twice a day
Not too shabby, Brad. Should have cashed that NCLH play. As someone said previously, "No one ever went broke taking profits."
And your metals have been performing well. Interesting that Gold could not budge when inflation was surging, but now inflation subsides (on some levels) yet gold braks 1,900. Maybe not an inflation hedge but more a weaker dollar play?
Yeah when rates fall is when gold makes it's serious moves...early 2000's, post 2009 and covid 2020 are the biggest moves gold has made in it's history I believe and we all know what those time spans had in common.....QE.
I too am waiting on Gatorchatter Bond-king FF to give the sign to pull the trigger. What will you buy? 10 yr? 20 yr? TLT? With 32 Trillion in US Government debt, no way we keep rates above 4% for any longer than necessary.
The last gig was 1099, but this one is W2 - but I'm a 'temporary full-time' employee w/ no benefits. The company has a 401k for full-time, but I'm not eligible.
Any of the 20-30 year duration bonds or long bond fund/ETF's will start rising with any fiscal loosening. I'm speaking as a trade of course since when the yields go down the price will rise. In 2019 I bought the Vanguard Strip Bond ETF(sorry don't remember the ticker off hand) and I made almost 40% I believe before I sold it at the beginning of 2020.
EDV? Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury ETF?
My thoughts on taking a position in long term fixed income is strictly personal and depends on your situation. Clearly if you think we have reached a peak in rates, of course you will get near the high yield and make money on price if rates go down. But what if they stick with QT and inflation remains, then you are either stuck with duration at an okay rate, but will lose on price. Of course you can always sell at a loss and redeploy. I am strictly in short term b/c they offer the highest yield, but carry the largest duration risk b/c if rates plummet, then we are stuck with cash at maturity and less attractive yields. But I think we are in a window of uncertainty and do not see longer rates getting away in either direction, but if you wanted long term as an investment, I would look to 3-10 year Investment Grade Corps. You can get between 5 and 6 percent on those, if you are willing to hold, that is not bad. They are liquid and almost, but not quite as guaranteed as US Govies. But the curve is saying hey, they may try and raise short term rates, but down the line inflation poses little risk hence long term yielding sub 4%. So if that is the case why not go high grade corporate for an extra 150 basis points.
