2023 Investing Thread

[Concrete Helmet]

I think there is good credibility to this article. While the CPI has made some decent moves downward over the last 3-4 months we are now going into the part of the year when gas prices typically go up until the top out in the summertime. I also think he might be right about needing to do another .50 basis hike.

It pains me to say this as I'm long gold & commodities and our business suffers in the higher rate scenario BUT if we don't get a handle on this now it will bounce higher and prolong the fight months and even maybe years into the future.

MSN

www.msn.com

 

[Detroitgator]

Still sleeping...

 

[Detroitgator]

I think there is good credibility to this article. While the CPI has made some decent moves downward over the last 3-4 months we are now going into the part of the year when gas prices typically go up until the top out in the summertime. I also think he might be right about needing to do another .50 basis hike.

It pains me to say this as I'm long gold & commodities and our business suffers in the higher rate scenario BUT if we don't get a handle on this now it will bounce higher and prolong the fight months and even maybe years into the future.

MSN

www.msn.com

I haven't paid attention to him in years, but I always liked listening to el Erian.

 

[Concrete Helmet]

Still sleeping...
View attachment 53750

You know what all those guys have in common? They need stuff that comes from the ground...

 

[Detroitgator]

You know what all those guys have in common? They need stuff that comes from the ground...
View attachment 53752

Crete.... Crete, Crete, Crete...

First, you can say that about ANY company that makes ANYTHING, whether it's Chik fil A or Lockheed. They ALL use commodities. It's why I have a core holding of commodities (and one of the few things I'd say I speculate in for swing/momentum trading).

Second, sure Captain Huge Balls, tell me you'll buy those Top 10 and hold them for the next TWENTY YEARS.

 

[Concrete Helmet]

Crete.... Crete, Crete, Crete...

First, you can say that about ANY company that makes ANYTHING, whether it's Chik fil A or Lockheed. They ALL use commodities. It's why I have a core holding of commodities (and one of the few things I'd say I speculate in for swing/momentum trading).

Second, sure Captain Huge Balls, tell me you'll buy those Top 10 and hold them for the next TWENTY YEARS.

The only ones I hold long are Vale, BHP, and Gerdau....something about getting 10% dividend when the stock is down takes a lot of the pain out of the equation....and when the dollar weakens(it's coming soon) the capital gains often match those of the better performers in the NASDAQ......and when those little Hadji's in Sudan or wherever start getting light switches look out.....iron ore, copper, nickel, steel making coal and the such will be the new/old Tesla's on the board...
For swing I like names like IPI(4 bagger last year), Alcoa(2 bagger), Freeport McMoran(multiple 2 baggers), Teck, LAC, Jr.G&S miners and Uranium stocks, although I'm forever long in UEC which I believe will be a $25 stock in the next 10 years....been in that one since under a buck.

Nothing against the defensive stocks Deet but I have not been in this game as long as you and some others, I don't have long running 401K that has benefitted from time. I pay someone to handle my PSP and IRA(for now) and I'm not impressed despite them being in the business for 30 plus years.

There's more than one way to skin a cat....I prefer from the ground up at least over the next 10 years.

 

[Egor's Assistant]

 

[Concrete Helmet]

DXY is in a full head and shoulders pattern and 10yr went to 3.40 this morning....is it a fakeout or is the dollar done?(long term downturn not great reset done)

Strange times indeed. Yesterday after the meeting I looked at Gold and Copper as they are often very good indicators of what's going on. Gold went higher after sitting idle for nearly 2 weeks sniffing out a declining dollar BUT Copper took a sh!t indicating a slowing economy although it has been on a tear lately so maybe profit taking....

Jobs added numbers went down yet job openings went back up to 11 million.....Layoff after layoff are all over even the MSM with FedeX moving to eliminate 10% of their workforce.....which is a major economic indicator off slowing economy due to shipping falling off the side of a cliff....yet I got info yesterday that the trade totals between China and the US finished 2022 at an all time high. Energy also has been sitting pretty much idle saying things are slowing.....

Somebody is lying.....and I'm still confused.

 

[FireFoley]

Clearly the market does not believe anything the FED is saying or doing. Taking the opportunity to raise money is the stuff I have that is running and redeploying into the stuff that others are selling, you know those companies that make money, LOL. I continue to ask that since long rates have torpedoed downward, why wouldn't the FED take advantge and flood the market with any or all of the long dated Treasurys they hold on the balance sheet? At some price there would be an appetite and it would help somewhat steepen the curve potentially.

 

[Concrete Helmet]

Clearly the market does not believe anything the FED is saying or doing. Taking the opportunity to raise money is the stuff I have that is running and redeploying into the stuff that others are selling, you know those companies that make money, LOL. I continue to ask that since long rates have torpedoed downward, why wouldn't the FED take advantge and flood the market with any or all of the long dated Treasurys they hold on the balance sheet? At some price there would be an appetite and it would help somewhat steepen the curve potentially.

A lot of conflicting data and indicators yesterday. I like your approach to move forward with caution by buying what others are discarding. Worst case scenario is even if we are officially on a run the defensives, staples and value will get pulled along for 6-8% returns along with the dividend....if it's an extended suckers rally you won't be trying to bend your knee backward to kick yourself in the ass in the near future....

I'm keeping half in short term stuff but have been adding small amounts to my dividend giants and have a small allotment deployed in higher risk stuff like jr. miners and Uranium stocks.

 

[FireFoley]

There is no question the data is conflicting and we all know Employment is the last shoe to drop. JOLTS at 11M and 2 job openings (supposedly) for every available person. Labor force is not rising and if you read enough you will see almost all of the job openings and those that get filled are in the services, where they can't find people: Bars, restaurants, etc. and all the other service industries that have the lowest base pay. All those layoffs, especially in tech are a very samll number relative to the entire labor force. As dumb as I am, this is simply not going to end until people do not have or feel like they have any more money. And that will be in credit card delinquencies (rising), auto repos (rising). It is happening, but just very slowly.

 

[Detroitgator]

There is no question the data is conflicting and we all know Employment is the last shoe to drop. JOLTS at 11M and 2 job openings (supposedly) for every available person. Labor force is not rising and if you read enough you will see almost all of the job openings and those that get filled are in the services, where they can't find people: Bars, restaurants, etc. and all the other service industries that have the lowest base pay. All those layoffs, especially in tech are a very samll number relative to the entire labor force. As dumb as I am, this is simply not going to end until people do not have or feel like they have any more money. And that will be in credit card delinquencies (rising), auto repos (rising). It is happening, but just very slowly.

On a related note, because one of my work email addresses is mandatorily made public on sam.gov (f'n government!), for six months, but especially in the last 30-45 days, I am getting BOMBED with offers from legitimate companies (mainly PE type firms that realize that govt contracting is near zero risk) with LOC type "pre-approved" offers based on their already running credit checks on my DUNS number. What is really interesting is that the "pre-approved" amount keeps rising, almost daily.

 

[Egor's Assistant]

 

[Egor's Assistant]

Posting this guarantees it's a suckers rally.....

Seriously though, I pushed all my chips in Jan. 3rd. Loving this rally. Now y'all got me spooked.

 

[Concrete Helmet]

Seriously though, I pushed all my chips in Jan. 3rd. Loving this rally. Now y'all got me spooked.

Enjoy it but I wouldn't leave my money in there too long....There's no fundamentals behind it...Meta earnings were only up because they fired half of their employees and haven't been paying their rent....that kinda stuff won't work for long. The other mistake the market is making in my opinion is that just because the FED quits raising doesn't mean they immediately start lowering....when these tech/growth companies have to refinance their debt in the newer higher rates it will suck the life out of them or they will have to keep firing more employees....

I've watched this guy for 3 years now and he has been spot on on the macro as well as the markets in that time.

 

[Egor's Assistant]

Thanks Crete. Been looking for some financial podcasts to replace "the Reformed Broker," I've been watching all last year. Wife says they were wrong about 65% of the time... meaning useless.

 

[Egor's Assistant]

 

[soflagator]

Thanks Crete. Been looking for some financial podcasts to replace "the Reformed Broker," I've been watching all last year. Wife says they were wrong about 65% of the time... meaning useless.

Don’t worry about finding any new podcasts. You just stick to Crete from here on out. He’ll guide you through all this.

 

[Egor's Assistant]

Don’t worry about finding any new podcasts. You just stick to Crete from here on out. He’ll guide you through all this.

Actually, we're minting a brand new crypto-coin together called OxCoin. It's based on analytics. You should invest.

 

[Egor's Assistant]

Don’t worry about finding any new podcasts. You just stick to Crete from here on out. He’ll guide you through all this.

Between the Meme ETF, the Inverse Cramer ETF, and the Nancy Pelosi Stock Tracker I do just fine thank you very much.