- Oct 6, 2016
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Since 2005, there have been 132 Power-5 conference head coaching hires, including 11 who – similar to Mullen – have yet to coach a game. I examined multiple metrics from each coach’s first three seasons to hopefully paint a complete picture about what is historically necessary to win nationally and in the SEC. The metrics included were the following:
79% of New hires see a increase in recruiting ranking in bump class.
This percentage is actually a little higher in the SEC, as second classes rose only 6 spots on average – from roughly 24th to 18th – but represent an improvement of 25 percent (since 1st and 2nd year classes are ranked higher in the SEC than the national average). Based on this, a reasonable expectation for Mullen’s transition class would be a finish of 10th or 11th, as a 25 percent improvement would be 10.5.
Of course, that does ignore Gators history, as previous UF coaches since Steve Spurrier have seen their classes improve by 9 spots, from 13.5 to 4.5, an improvement of 67 percent. If Mullen were to maintain this average, his 2019 class would finish with a national ranking of 4th or 5th.
While it might seem counterintuitive that a coach would need help from his second recruiting class to win an early championship, that’s exactly what happened with the following bump class-additions:
Additionally, the 6 future SEC Championship coaches hired since 2005 saw the following during their bump class:
Mullen is a great transition class recruiter but falters in bump class joining some pretty bad coaches:
In fact, Mullen is one of only five Power-5 coaching hires (of 132 total, 121 who have completed a bump class) since 2005 to see recruiting rankings decline in his first three cycles.
Texas, Tennessee, and Washington have all had great recruiting despite not winning much at first under Herman, Jones and Sarkisian at the time.
Mullen has a 2% chance of getting a great bump class his 3rd year joining Dabo, SOS and Richt.
The Cali strategy is a not a good strategy.
Comparing Mullen to meyer doesn't work because Meyer had rosters built that includes 63% & 65% instate players and landed 10 top 25 FL players.
Bill Sikes: The 5-star nerd breaks down the current state of Gators recruiting - Read and Reaction
- Win/loss record during the year prior to the coach’s arrival
- Win/loss record for each coach’s first three years at the program
- Eight different recruiting metrics for each of their first three recruiting classes
79% of New hires see a increase in recruiting ranking in bump class.
This percentage is actually a little higher in the SEC, as second classes rose only 6 spots on average – from roughly 24th to 18th – but represent an improvement of 25 percent (since 1st and 2nd year classes are ranked higher in the SEC than the national average). Based on this, a reasonable expectation for Mullen’s transition class would be a finish of 10th or 11th, as a 25 percent improvement would be 10.5.
Of course, that does ignore Gators history, as previous UF coaches since Steve Spurrier have seen their classes improve by 9 spots, from 13.5 to 4.5, an improvement of 67 percent. If Mullen were to maintain this average, his 2019 class would finish with a national ranking of 4th or 5th.
While it might seem counterintuitive that a coach would need help from his second recruiting class to win an early championship, that’s exactly what happened with the following bump class-additions:
- Tim Tebow and Percy Harvin from Urban Meyer’s 2006 class at Florida
- Cam Newton from Gene Chizik’s 2010 class at Auburn
- Mark Ingraham from Nick Saban’s 2008 class at Alabama
- Jake Fromm from Kirby Smart’s 2017 class at Georgia
Additionally, the 6 future SEC Championship coaches hired since 2005 saw the following during their bump class:
- An increase of 8.2 spots in the national rankings
- An increase 2.3 spots in the conference rankings
- An average of 2.3 5-star recruits
- An average national ranking of 4.7
- An average conference ranking of 2.3
- An average of 16.8 blue-chips (4 or 5-star recruits) in the class
Mullen is a great transition class recruiter but falters in bump class joining some pretty bad coaches:
In fact, Mullen is one of only five Power-5 coaching hires (of 132 total, 121 who have completed a bump class) since 2005 to see recruiting rankings decline in his first three cycles.
- Jerry Kill – Minnesota (2011-2013): 57, 59, and 67
- Kyle Flood – Rutgers (2012-2014): 23, 48, and 56
- Derek Dooley – Tennessee (2010-2012): 7, 14 and 19
- Derek Mason – Vanderbilt (2014-2016): 46, 49 and 54
- Dan Mullen – Mississippi State (2009-2011): 18, 30 and 41
Texas, Tennessee, and Washington have all had great recruiting despite not winning much at first under Herman, Jones and Sarkisian at the time.
Mullen has a 2% chance of getting a great bump class his 3rd year joining Dabo, SOS and Richt.
The Cali strategy is a not a good strategy.
Comparing Mullen to meyer doesn't work because Meyer had rosters built that includes 63% & 65% instate players and landed 10 top 25 FL players.
Bill Sikes: The 5-star nerd breaks down the current state of Gators recruiting - Read and Reaction
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