Mortgage rates

[LagoonGator68]

I guess Goon is not familiar with the term.....Blow off top.....

Florida simply doesn't have the diversity of industries to support a sustained economic uprising(especially with the condition of tourism/travel/hospitality)....we go through this every 10-12 years in a normal economic cycles.....here is how it goes(BTW I've seen it happen 4 times in the 56 years I've lived here)

Yankee become enamored with Mickey Mouse and lower taxes....
Yankee moves to Florida with high hopes and plenty of Disney tickets in pocket...
Yankee blinded by his northern property value mistakenly buys at the top of his range...
Yankee #A is a professional and excited by the new office his company JUST opened here....
Yankee # B is a Ham & Egger who thinks he knows a trade or is an unskilled laborer/salesman/********ter(usually a loudmouthed know it all) but was making $XXXX a week up north....

Fast forward 18-24 months...

Yankee #A is sweating bullets because rumors are flying that corporate is not happy with revenue from the new Orlando office and is either going to consolidate(lay people off) or cut losses and decide Florida is made up of a bunch of cheap rednecks who don't buy their goods or services....

Yankee # B can't believe how sh!tty the pay is here in Florida(Orlando especially) and he and his fat ass wife who works at a bank are barely making $2,500 a MONTH take home between BOTH of them....

Both are ready to bail but realize they are 20-40% upside down in their house because the market flattened out or worse went down.....meanwhile they've racked up 35k in CC debt and this time the bank wouldn't float them a HELOC....."whadya's mean our house is only worth 130k...we paid $250k less than 2 years ago"
This one gets short sale for 145-155K or sold on the courthouse steps for $125k


Yankee A usually cuts losses with 24-30 month's takes a loss on the 600K dream house and hauls ass back back north when he gets a tip that there is an opening back at corporate
This one is usually short sale because Yankee A is somewhat responsible and knows foreclosure is a big black eye...sometimes he just eats the 120-150k loss...house sells for 390-420k


Now the 3rd player in the game of cards is Larry the Bricklayer(insert any construction trade here)....local boy. Been layin alot of bricks and is gettin tarred of that old F150 and his fatass wife is tarred of living next to those noisy Puerto Ricans in East Orlando....Hell ol Larry the Brick layer can show the bank where he's been making 6-8 grand a month for the last 8-12 month's and he ain't never really liked livin next to them damned Ricans anyway....Hell their buying a fancy new house in Lake Nona with all the fixins where he's been laying all those bricks. Now he'll be neighbors with Yankee #A(he built Yankees house)....and just to be fair since Larry just financed him a 60k Bass boat with no money down and 180 month financing he just HAD to buy fat ass Becky a 25k diamond and a new Lexus SUV....

Fast forward 18-24 months and besides Larry and Becky's pending deeevorce the Judge want's to know who's getting the house and how any bank will be able to refinance it when it's 25-35% negative equity....

RINSE AND REPEAT.....

....Whorelando’s best feature is Orange Blossom Trail. RE cycles are real. 1973-74; S and L crisis ‘89-90; NINJA loans 2008-10....cycles approximately 17-18 years for the most part, but certainly not guaranteed. I think we’re good until 2025 plus or minus 2 years or so. Of course, remembering, the most important word in Real Estate is location!

 

[Concrete Helmet]

I think we’re good until 2025 plus or minus 2 years or so. Of course, remembering, the most important word in Real Estate is location!

It's coming a little quicker than that.....some of those bricks that Larry laid will start falling slowly by this summer....the real cascade will be later in 21 or early 22 and the trap door opens by the end of 22 early 23...

As bad as Orlando was during the GFC Miami/Jax/Tampa were worse by percentages....

 

[LagoonGator68]

It's coming a little quicker than that.....some of those bricks that Larry laid will start falling slowly by this summer....the real cascade will be later in 21 or early 22 and the trap door opens by the end of 22 early 23...

As bad as Orlando was during the GFC Miami/Jax/Tampa were worse by percentages....

https://dta0yqvfnusiq.cloudfront.net/idapac/2020/12/SEFLB122320-copy-5fe3756f83457.pdf

Framing lumber prices have more than tripled...

 

[Concrete Helmet]

https://dta0yqvfnusiq.cloudfront.net/idapac/2020/12/SEFLB122320-copy-5fe3756f83457.pdf

Framing lumber prices have more than tripled...

Yeah I remember when Florida literally ran out of concrete sand in 2004-2005 too.....remember that?

I'll just have fun closing refi's until our clients start sending over request for O&E and muni lien searches on properties that we've refied 3 times since 2018...then the fun begins.....rinse and repeat....

 

[Detroitgator]

Yeah I remember when Florida literally ran out of concrete sand in 2004-2005 too.....remember that?

I'll just have fun closing refi's until our clients start sending over request for O&E and muni lien searches on properties that we've refied 3 times since 2018...then the fun begins.....rinse and repeat....

Yes, that's when all the Chinese mold impregnated dry wall came over after the 4 hurricanes.

We were lucky that summer in 2004 before the hurricanes. We bought this house with no pool and had the pool put in just before the price of concrete went full retard.

 

[Detroitgator]

It's coming a little quicker than that.....some of those bricks that Larry laid will start falling slowly by this summer....the real cascade will be later in 21 or early 22 and the trap door opens by the end of 22 early 23...

As bad as Orlando was during the GFC Miami/Jax/Tampa were worse by percentages....

I 100% agree with this...

@LagoonGator68 I don't think you can extrapolate those old timelines linearly anymore. The three crashes you listed you could run on a linear timeline because our increase in debt was rising fairly linearly over that same timeline. However, since 2010, the debt over time line has gone exponential vs linear, and I would say that that will greatly compress and timelines.

 

[BMF]

It's coming a little quicker than that.....some of those bricks that Larry laid will start falling slowly by this summer....the real cascade will be later in 21 or early 22 and the trap door opens by the end of 22 early 23...

As bad as Orlando was during the GFC Miami/Jax/Tampa were worse by percentages....

Agree w/ this. It seems like the boom will continue well into 2021 (unless there's some market crash after Creepy Joe takes over). Our plan is to sell both properties here in Virginia, move to Florida....and rent. I hate having to rent a place, but I don't want to be like those who bought in 2005, 2006 (I bought a rental in 2005 and lost my ass, but got lucky AF w/ the military home selling program - I only lost about $30k, which is/was still a lot - but I got out Scott free. I sold for $126k and bought for $240k, the program covered the difference).

 

[FireFoley]

@BMF, renting is not so bad if you have the belief that you and I have. So say you rent for 2 years and drop 50K in rent, but buy a place sometime in those 2 years for 100K less than you would pay in 2021, then you will still be ahead.

 

[Concrete Helmet]

Agree w/ this. It seems like the boom will continue well into 2021 (unless there's some market crash after Creepy Joe takes over). Our plan is to sell both properties here in Virginia, move to Florida....and rent. I hate having to rent a place, but I don't want to be like those who bought in 2005, 2006 (I bought a rental in 2005 and lost my ass, but got lucky AF w/ the military home selling program - I only lost about $30k, which is/was still a lot - but I got out Scott free. I sold for $126k and bought for $240k, the program covered the difference).

Don't dally too much on selling those properties IMO...lumber starting to rollover(futures down)....gold going through the ceiling....doesn't usually end well for housing prices.
Good for RE investors though...

 

[BMF]

Don't dally too much on selling those properties IMO...lumber starting to rollover(futures down)....gold going through the ceiling....doesn't usually end well for housing prices.
Good for RE investors though...

We're planning to sell by late March, early April....hopefully.

Let me ask you guys about the 1031 exchange. I know you have 180 days to do 1031 exchange (I think you have to identify a property within 45 days of selling/closing?). Anyhow, if we sell and rent for a year, what kind of a tax hit will I take? @FireFoley

 

[Gatordiddy]

speaking of refinancing...

We're looking to refi here in Denver from a 5.375% FHA (going to a conventional?), second "mortgage" was a HELOC at 4.5% - total ~$585,000 - both opened in April 2019
Do the lenders still look at the older FICO 5, 4 and 2 scores, or have they moved to 8 or 9 yet?
And is it still a 45 day window for hard credit inquiries?

thanks

 

[FireFoley]

We're planning to sell by late March, early April....hopefully.

Let me ask you guys about the 1031 exchange. I know you have 180 days to do 1031 exchange (I think you have to identify a property within 45 days of selling/closing?). Anyhow, if we sell and rent for a year, what kind of a tax hit will I take? @FireFoley

Above my pay grade, but isn't 1031 only for investment property? Does not include primary home correct?

 

[BMF]

Above my pay grade, but isn't 1031 only for investment property? Does not include primary home correct?

No, it includes your primary home. If you sell, you are supposed to move the profit into a new home of equal or greater value or you have to pay (short or long term) capital gains tax.

 

[BMF]

speaking of refinancing...

We're looking to refi here in Denver from a 5.375% FHA (going to a conventional?), second "mortgage" was a HELOC at 4.5% - total ~$585,000 - both opened in April 2019
Do the lenders still look at the older FICO 5, 4 and 2 scores, or have they moved to 8 or 9 yet?
And is it still a 45 day window for hard credit inquiries?

thanks

I think they only look at your recent score. I'm not sure what 5, 4, 2, 8 or 9 means. If you have a score close to or over 800 you're golden.

 

[Gatordiddy]

I think they only look at your recent score. I'm not sure what 5, 4, 2, 8 or 9 means. If you have a score close to or over 800 you're golden.

FICO has various score numbers depending on the type of loan you're applying for (auto, mortgage, credit card, etc.).
8 is the most widely used score, but 9 and 10 are out.
I would imagine that @Concrete Helmet uses FICO in his line of` work

 

[BMF]

FICO has various score numbers depending on the type of loan you're applying for (auto, mortgage, credit card, etc.).
8 is the most widely used score, but 9 and 10 are out.
I would imagine that @Concrete Helmet uses FICO in his line of` work

Interesting. I rarely look at my credit score, maybe once or twice a year when I get an email notification. All I know is it's over 800. I am planning to sell my house this year, not sure when I'll buy though so I want to keep it as high as possible.

If you are staying in your house more than 18 months you should probably refi (if your current rate is over 3%). You can get a 30 year for 2.25%. I was going to refi my house (which is at 3.25) but when I did the math on the closing cost I wouldn't have gotten the money back if I sold before fall - and we plan to sell this spring.

 

[Gatordiddy]

Interesting. I rarely look at my credit score, maybe once or twice a year when I get an email notification. All I know is it's over 800. I am planning to sell my house this year, not sure when I'll buy though so I want to keep it as high as possible.

If you are staying in your house more than 18 months you should probably refi (if your current rate is over 3%). You can get a 30 year for 2.25%. I was going to refi my house (which is at 3.25) but when I did the math on the closing cost I wouldn't have gotten the money back if I sold before fall - and we plan to sell this spring.

you're in the Arlington/Falls church area, right? If so, no problems at all selling your home.
most likely a bidding war too...

we're at 5.375% right now, so moving to a 3% loan is going to help quite a bit

 

[BMF]

you're in the Arlington/Falls church area, right? If so, no problems at all selling your home.
most likely a bidding war too...

we're at 5.375% right now, so moving to a 3% loan is going to help quite a bit

Yeah, I'm in Arlington (south Arlington, so not as desirable).

You're going to kill it when you refi! Why did you wait so long?

 

[FireFoley]

No, it includes your primary home. If you sell, you are supposed to move the profit into a new home of equal or greater value or you have to pay (short or long term) capital gains tax.

Here is what I do know about the sale of a primary home that has been such in I think 2 of the past 5 years. If single, the first $250K PROFIT is tax free and if filing jointly it is $500K PROFIT. So if not that much, then the 1031 would not totally matter. But if doing a 1031 is better for you I get it.

 

[Gatordiddy]

Yeah, I'm in Arlington (south Arlington, so not as desirable).

You're going to kill it when you refi! Why did you wait so long?

we are finishing up a very lengthy whole house remodel...and wanted that to be mostly complete before we applied.
helped to increase the L2V.

and... home renos:
"it's a journey, not a destination..."