Mortgage rates

[BMF]

U.S. mortgage interest rates top 6% for first time since 2008

Rising mortgage rates are increasingly weighing on the interest-rate sensitive housing sector as the Federal Reserve pushes on with aggressively lifting borrowing costs in order to tame high inflation. The central bank has raised its benchmark overnight lending rate by 225 basis points since...

finance.yahoo.com

 

[NVGator]

That's the 30 year through August. You'd have to have some really bad credit to have a 6% even today.

On a good note, they've risen the Conventional Conforming Loan limit to $715,000 for 2023. That's up from the current $657,000. Good idea, huh?

 

[CDGator]

We just put some funds into short term CD’s that are earning more than our mortgage rate. Probably time to stop paying extra every month.

 

[Concrete Helmet]

Seeing the same here. Purchase orders have pulled back some in part to seasonallity but a lot I believe is people like yourself who are in a 3.0% or so fixed and not in such a hurry to "upgrade" to a larger/more expensive home until they see the economic/political washout over the next 3 months. Of course some also are buying into the media's constant pounding of "HOUSING CRASH" which I'm not guaranteeing won't happen but with a strong labor force and the historically low rates most owners have....well we'll see.

In the end I expect a post election timeline for a lightening of the monetary tension Powell(a repub) will bring if congress flips but Jay is gonna tighten the screws until then.

 

[FireFoley]

Saw a print in the 30yr, Conventional today above 7%. I am sure most can get lower, but have not seen that since the very early 2000's

 

[BMF]

Saw a print in the 30yr, Conventional today above 7%. I am sure most can get lower, but have not seen that since the very early 2000's

Last time I saw over 7% is mid-90's. Housing market is about to tumble....and I'm here for it! I want to land a rental for less than $250k in my area (south Pinellas Co.).

 

[CDGator]

Mean old mom made the kids amortize a 30 year loan at 3% and at 7% to see the interest payment difference on 100,000.









OUCH

 

[FireFoley]

Homebuilder sentiment drops to half of what it was six months ago

Confidence among builders in the single-family home market is at the lowest level since August 2012, with the exception of a drop at the start of the pandemic.

www.cnbc.com

I like where that builder says this is unhealthy and unsustainable. You did not hear that when that 200K house was selling for 600K. Those guys were rubbing themselves raw and laughing all the way to the bank. And I don't blame them. It is called capitalism.

 

[CDGator]

Homebuilder sentiment drops to half of what it was six months ago

Confidence among builders in the single-family home market is at the lowest level since August 2012, with the exception of a drop at the start of the pandemic.

www.cnbc.com

I like where that builder says this is unhealthy and unsustainable. You did not hear that when that 200K house was selling for 600K. Those guys were rubbing themselves raw and laughing all the way to the bak. And I don't blame them. It is called capitalism.

Feast or famine.
My brother is a mortgage loan officer and he could hardly breathe the past few years.
Now he's wondering where the loans will come from in the next few months/years.

 

[FireFoley]

Feast or famine.
My brother is a mortgage loan officer and he could hardly breathe the past few years.
Now he's wondering where the loans will come from in the next few months/years.

To your point........

Mortgage demand drops to a 25-year low, as interest rates climb

Demand for mortgages to buy a home and to refinance fell again, as interest rates kept rising.

www.cnbc.com

 

[Concrete Helmet]

Feast or famine.
My brother is a mortgage loan officer and he could hardly breathe the past few years.
Now he's wondering where the loans will come from in the next few months/years.

If there is a positive in this it is that like a wildfire it tends to burn off the under brush. Were seeing this as of yesterday when our largest client held a board meeting and named us as the only vendor they're using at this point and directed the mortgage dept. to send us all of their orders. Were still closing 150-200 loans a month but 70% of them are HELOC's under 100K so no Title insurance but were still doing a few 2nd's and 1st HELOC's over 100k and a smatering of estate and divorce buyouts. Purchases are literally half of what we were doing even 4 months ago. Our 2nd largest client has informed us that the attorney they also use for title work is retiring at the end of the year so we'll pick up all of their 1st mortgages and purchase referrals from them.

I'd highly recommend your brother do what I've done also which is to keep marketing anyone who purchased in the last 6 months and until rates drop as they will be looking to refi in a hurry once rates drop. Not sure what lenders will do for discounts but were offering to do discounted fees and re issue rates.....Gotta dig deep for the next year or so atleast.

 

[Concrete Helmet]

Last time I saw over 7% is mid-90's. Housing market is about to tumble....and I'm here for it! I want to land a rental for less than $250k in my area (south Pinellas Co.).

Remember what Hurricane Charlie did to house prices in 2004-2006? This storm will raise the cost of materials and labor which will impact rebuilding cost(not to mention labor) and new home construction/remodeling.....which in turn, you guessed it... brings up property values. If rates level off and start to tick down even slightly we may not have seen the top yet considering demand and people moving here are still at nearly all time highs.

MSN

 

[BMF]

Remember what Hurricane Charlie did to house prices in 2004-2006? This storm will raise the cost of materials and labor which will impact rebuilding cost(not to mention labor) and new home construction/remodeling.....which in turn, you guessed it... brings up property values. If rates level off and start to tick down even slightly we may not have seen the top yet considering demand and people moving here are still at nearly all time highs.

MSN

Coincidentally, I bought my first house in 1997.

Mortgage applications fall to the lowest since 1997 as the 30-year fixed rate edges closer to 7%

 

[Concrete Helmet]

This might be the answer to when rates have to go back down....My guess is around the time the new congress starts their session....Feb. By then Powell will have shaved a monumental amount off the Feds balance sheet too...

 

[Bernardo de la Paz]

By then Powell will have shaved a monumental amount off the Feds balance sheet too...

The balance sheet:



Massive tightening right there. It's baffling that we're still experiencing inflation, right?

 

[Bernardo de la Paz]

There's very little chance we'll be lowering rates by February. We might stop raising rates, but it's very unlikely we would lower them.

Personally I see them continuing to go up if we don't get more aggressive with tightening.

 

[FireFoley]

There's very little chance we'll be lowering rates by February. We might stop raising rates, but it's very unlikely we would lower them.

Personally I see them continuing to go up if we don't get more aggressive with tightening.

I do not disagree. I think the rush by cash buyers for homes might be true, but given higher rates, the ability for them to resell will be very limited. Again not predicting a crash but as an example I am seeing 20+% asking price drops here, granted from stoopid ask prices, but still. Properties that sold in 3 days now sitting 3 months later.

Speaking of rates, the investing thread has been quiet, guess b/c stocks are awful, gold it dead. crypto whatever has lost its volatility and the 1 year Treasury is sniffing 5%. Crete drops 2M into the 1 year, heads off to the Caymans and pulls in just under 100K for the year. Not bad work if you can get it,

 

[Concrete Helmet]

Massive tightening right there. It's baffling that we're still experiencing inflation, right?

Yup thats about as far as they ever cut isn't it? Look at the chart for proof.....They will still have another 4 months of Treasuries and MBS coming off that total too.

 

[Concrete Helmet]

Personally I see them continuing to go up if we don't get more aggressive with tightening.

No way that will happen. The rest of the world is suffering dollar shortages and hitting up the Swiss system which is usually absent of bidders....It's one thing for the stock market to crash, maybe even the bond market but throw in the housing market(20% of the total economy)AND bail out large foreign banks at the same time? Ain't happening.....their only alternative is to start lending(printing money again)....soon