***OFFICIAL SECCG THREAD: UF vs. TidePods***

[Towels 'N Sporks]

You know old saying: “Lies, damn lies, and statistics.”

I'm guessing these stats are padded due to the fact that Alabama has blown out FIVE teams in a row and gets to play their 2nd and 3rd stringers on defense.

 

[Swamp Donkey]

Ive heard blowouts are an example of an offense being terrible and their scores shouldnt count in ADVANCED STATISTICS.

 

[Zambo]

Its a football game. We certainly have a chance to win. Bama has a better line on both sides of the ball for sure. They have a better running back. Their best receiver is fantastic but so is ours. Their QB is great but so is ours. They are a better team than us, but its not like we're playing the Steelers.

Having said that I'll probably miss the game. Had a baja trip planned for a while and now the game is the same weekend.

 

[Swamp Donkey]

Having said that I'll probably miss the game. Had a baja trip planned

it's the best plan, really.

 

[oxrageous]

They are a better team than us, but its not like we're playing the Steelers.

I think I'd rather play the Steelers.

 

[Zambo]

I think I'd rather play the Steelers.

Even with all the anthem kneeling?

 

[lizardbreath]

Even with all the anthem kneeling?

Never mind.

 

[Swamp Donkey]

I think I'd rather play the Steelers.

I going to guess that Alabama has a lot more first-round picks than the Steelers

 

[lagator]

Not gonna argue. Beating Bama will be a tall task. But in a certain odd way I love these kind of wildly uneven matchups for the uncertainty they bring. I recall the feeling going into the 2007 Fiesta Bowl. Few gave us a chance against Ohio State. We know what happened there.

Our guys will be sky high. We’ve got the best quarterback in America. A few big plays and fortunate bounces here and there, and you never know what might happen. I doubt it, too, but we can hope.

The difference is, despite what the talking heads were saying, we all knew we had the better team and believed we would win because we knew we had a top notch SEC defense and a talented if somewhat dysfunctional offense.

 

[GatorJ]

Wrong. Running the ball is exactly what CAUSES 3rd and long. Period. And it will have us in third and long all night.

I can assure you that Alabama has watched the game tape. Theire unblocked defensive end will absolutely crush the running back in the backfield and won't give a second thought to Trash keeping the ball. You guys will blame the tackkes for Mullinz playcalling, as always.

We dont have a chance to run the ball without EJ taking the snaps instead of Trash. If we do that to shorten the game outside of some odd 3rd and short, we will lose huge.

I fully expect us to do what we normally do and run the option and QB keeper consistently. This will be the game when the gap between Mullens and Grantham and elite coaching staffs will he painfully obvious.

Running the ball doesn’t put you at 3rd and long. Running it poorly does. We need to average 4+ yards a rush or it’s going to be a lot of 3rd and longs.

the good news is that we have the QB to bail us out of 3rd and longs. But still...

 

[TheDouglas78]

The difference is, despite what the talking heads were saying, we all knew we had the better team and believed we would win because we knew we had a top notch SEC defense and a talented if somewhat dysfunctional offense.

Exactly, people who actually watched the SEC and Florida in particular were calling for UF to win by double digits. I remember listening to someone talk to one national talking head on the radio a week before the game and he was talking about how the Ohio State offensive linemen haven't seen defensive linemen as fast us the SEC and would be dominated. A lot of the guys who worked for ESPN after the game said they were told to watch Big 10 over other conference and pump them up due to contract with the Big 10, and upon seeing the speed of the SEC especially at DL that there was no contest between the two.

 

[RocketCityGator]

The defense has gotten much better since a couple weeks back. I’d suspect that Mullen wants to get the lead going into the 4th quarter and rely on the running game and defense to ice it.

Never put the game into the hands of our defense as long as 3rd and dwag is coaching.

 

[Durty South Swamp]

Rewatched the condensed version of the buttchug game. Holy Lord is our run game putrid. I'll even say it. Its worse than our defense. Defense is bad but it's not hapless. Run game is absolute

Unreal how long we've gone without an offense that simply does each of the base functions with competence.

 

[Sec14Gator]

All kidding aside, where do you see where have an advantage?

Only at the absolute most pivotal position - QB. We have a major advantage. Trask's receivers are not wide open all day or running for 60 yards after the catch very often. Maybe the receivers for Bama neutralize that advantage some by helping Jones out, but as good as they are, none are the matchup nightmare of Pitts. Not even D. Smith.

we need to run the ball when necessary to prevent 3rd and longs.

If we do that instead of striking as quickly and often as possible we will lose huge again. This is exactly the recipe for another Butteresque 41-14 loss.

SD is 100% correct here. It's almost like our own fans have not watched our games. We have such an efficient passing game that we must play to our strengths and plan to need at least 42+ to win. That is not ball control or playing to have short third downs. That is playing to have very few third downs. As @soflagator pointed out, we need them playing with some pressure that comes from us pressing to score every down as though it is the last possession of the fourth quarter.

The team that wins this game doesn't have the better third down defense, it has the least total third downs per drive on offense.

I fully expect us to do what we normally do

Don't be so sure. When we played the two best offenses we have seen this season (Ole Miss and the collies), we were all a bit stunned how much Mullen was willing to go away from his tendencies and run a more traditional running game with more dynamic passing concepts (save for the EJ packages). We have moved away from that some, but even against the dwags we moved away from his reversion to option we have seen recently. I think the coaching may have been coasting. Whether that is smart or gets us away from playing crisply, is something we will find out.

Last point on the running game: early in the season, including against the pups, we were able to run off the left side of our line against better defenses than tinerc (thoguh the right side was always a mess - both Stewart and Delance). Since then, while I have not fully tracked the playside weighting, we are seemingly trying to force running right instead. It is nearly always a failure (option, slow developing stretches, or more traditional sets). Again, I wonder about whether we are trying to show false tendencies for Atlanta. I am certainly hoping so, because we could once functionally run off our left side.

Another way of looking at it is with common opponents. We have 6, so it's a decent sample size. The total point difference is 15(150 vs 135). They narrowly edged us in every contest, except A&M where they were much better, and OM where they were slightly worse. Still, a difference of about 2 points a game.

Great point and as with undervaluing of Trask's impact, this is understated. Even the margins of victory by Bama are more exemplary of Saban's style of focusing on the process and every play, block, footstep in pass protection of the right guard, etc. Saban just never stops, so their games have been more dominant even though their offense on a play to play basis is not too much better than ours.

Similarly, their defense is simply not good and they have only played one offense like ours - Ole Miss. Lane lit them up. Our offense is better than Ole Miss, and while its shocking our defense is better than anyone, with Campbell back, our defense is also better than most teams Bama has played.

Assuming we don't come out and try to do what at least half a dozen posters here want (run and slow the game down), we absolutely can win. Certainly not favored and unlikely to win most times if we played several times. But, a great QB is a major equalizer and we have one of the best we've ever had.

 

[SGG]

The difference is, despite what the talking heads were saying, we all knew we had the better team and believed we would win because we knew we had a top notch SEC defense and a talented if somewhat dysfunctional offense.

And a head football coach that’s in the GOAT discussion.

Mullen isn’t even on the fringe of the fringe of the conversation:

 

[SGG]

Never put the game into the hands of our defense as long as 3rd and dwag is coaching.

3rd and Dwag.

I like it.

 

[RocketCityGator]

3rd and Dwag.

I like it.

The use of his real name would be level of respect that I just don't have.

 

[78]

And a head football coach that’s in the GOAT discussion.

Mullen isn’t even on the fringe of the fringe of the conversation:

Meyer’s certainly in the GOAT discussion now. Was he in December 2006? Of course not. That was my point to begin with. You don’t know where you stand until years later looking back.

We certainly don’t look like we belong on the same field with Bama. We may find out different.

 

[-THE DUDE-]

Wow. Interesting take. I actually couldn’t disagree more though, and think Alabama may be more inclined to revert back to more ball control to shorten the game with us. They have the running back to do so, it’s worked with several of our opponents and I still think Saban in a championship setting will try to go back to the formula he most associates with winning titles. We on the other hand, I feel, have no choice but to try and score on every possession and maybe—just maybe—get them out of their comfort zone with a stop or two. Every team that has beaten Alabama(outside of 6-3)has done so with dynamic offense and scoring. Even this year, the closest team to pulling the upset was OM with like 50 points. We aren’t beating them if we’re held under 35, imo.

The part that sucks is that in many respects, at worst, Saban gets two shots at beating us and so can kind of experiment in Atl.

My thoughts exactly on this game. I’d rather get in a shootout with Bama chucking it as well. What’s the worst that happens a bomb to smith or one of their other wideouts? At least we get the ball back quickly...better than them demoralizing us by pounding down our throats and keeping our offense off the field

 

[-THE DUDE-]

Meyer’s certainly in the GOAT discussion now. Was he in December 2006? Of course not. That was my point to begin with. You don’t know where you stand until years later looking back.

We certainly don’t look like we belong on the same field with Bama. We may find out different.

A lot of people still weren’t convinced he could win consistently in the SEC at that point. Meyer was far from being in that conversation at that time. After the game that’s when everything changed