SBnation's 2017 Blue-Chip Ratio

[78]

So if we suck in 2017, all is okay in Gator Nation because the super froshies will save the day in 2018.

Imagine if it took every president four years to get anything meaningful done. Oh wait.

 

[Swamp Donkey]

I'm actually discouraged every time a pumper falls. I guess the fall camp assessments (particularly OL) has brought 78 into negator territory.

I really do pray to be wrong in my assessment.

 

[Swamp Donkey]

We'll just remind our opponents how good our 2018 class is. That should solve it.

Kind of funny too hiw weve fallen. #7 class isnt "good". It is an acceptabke class at UF. Good for us 1 through 3 or so. Seventh is "mehhh we missed on a few guys". #9 is WTF were you people doing? 15-17 is fire them all yesterday. 20+ is fire the whole damn athletic dept.

 

[Frozen Gator]

uga is usually ranked pretty high but has just been an above average team

 

[Frozen Gator]

How many # 1-3 ranked classes did SOS have?

 

[T REX]

How many # 1-3 ranked classes did SOS have?

Moot. If you take the average of Zook till CHump's last year the avg class rank was 7th. 7th was average. Mac "seems" to be on the upswing recruiting wise. If he can somehow tread water until the cavalry arrives he might be ok. We'll see.

 

[Swamp Donkey]

How many # 1-3 ranked classes did SOS have?

Well, there really werent any legitimate rankings back then (Beano Cook was a joke) but once scouts came out he had one and most were top five. One was pretty poor like 17th but that was after three top classes and not much scholly space.

He certainly was never this shytsandwich FIU stealing mofo like the Sharkhumper so get that shyt out of here. There has never been a time in history which we lost recruits to Purdue, Indiana, Kentucky and then had to resort to stealing FIU/FAU players.

 

[PastyStoole]

How many # 1-3 ranked classes did SOS have?

The 1995 and 2000 classes were right up there in the top three, and there were others. On balance he and his staff recruited very well. Under rated as a recruiter because he had trouble recruiting QBs and WRs, despite his offensive genius, believe it or not. Everywhere else we recruited quite well. Plus, the guy was a freakin' WITCH on the sideline. I think some of us would cut Mac some slack if he could coach an offense that was at least in the top 30 for godsakes. When he was in his prime, Spurrier could have taken the three-star players Mac's loaded this team up with and turned it into a top ten offense.

 

[Gator2222]

I counted blue chips using rivals so #s are a little different but it's still valid for comparing year over year
Year.....BlueChip/Total....Percentage - 4 year total....Percentage
2002* 9/23 39% (8-5)
2003 14/26 54% (8-5)
2004 12/23 52% (7-5)
-----------------
2005* 8/18 44%....... 43/90 48% (9-3)
2006 21/27 78%....... 55/94 59% (13-1)
2007 20/27 74%....... 61/95 64% (9-4)
2008 16/22 73%....... 65/94 69% (13-1)
2009 12/17 71%....... 69/93 74% (13-1)
2010 21/27 78%....... 69/93 74% (8-5)
-------------------
2011* 11/19 58%...... 60/85 71% (7-6)
2012 13/22 59%....... 57/85 67% (11-2)
2013 16/29 55%....... 61/97 62% (4-8)
2014 13/24 54%....... 53/94 56% (7-5)
-------------------
2015* 7/21 33%........ 49/96 51% (10-4)
2016 10/25 40%....... 46/99 46% (9-4)
2017 15/23 65% ...... 45/93 48%

Rivals only goes back to 2002 so that's as far back as I could go.
Some take aways:
The 2015 class was the worst going all the way back to 2002 with Zook's transition class.
Transition classes hurt.
Meyer was signing classes in the 70's which eventually got our 4 year numbers up to 74%.
Recruiting of bluechippers dropped off with Chump, compared to Meyer. Chump's classes ranked high I assume because although he took fewer bluechippers they were high quality.
Not counting transition years Meyer signed on average 18 bluechippers a class. Let's call that the gold standard.
If you're aiming for 66% bluechips that's 16.5 per class of 25.

Years 4 Year Total Record
2002 - 2004 35/72 49% 23-15 (61%)

2005 - 2010 362/559 65% 65-15 (81%)

2011 - 2014 231/361 64% 29-21 (58%)

2015 - 2016 95/288 33% 19-8 (70%)

So basically what you are saying is that Mac has had the lowest percentage of blue chip players of any Gator coach in recent history by far and yet has still won 70% of his games.

Mac is winning more with less. Sounds like a good coach to me. I can't wait to see how he does now that recruiting has turned the corner.

(Cue the dumper excuses about Muschamps defense, SEC East, etc. - Mac's fault when he loses, but no credit to him when he wins)

 

[InstiGATOR1]

I counted blue chips using rivals so #s are a little different but it's still valid for comparing year over year
Year.....BlueChip/Total....Percentage - 4 year total....Percentage
2002* 9/23 39% (8-5)
2003 14/26 54% (8-5)
2004 12/23 52% (7-5)
-----------------
2005* 8/18 44%....... 43/90 48% (9-3)
2006 21/27 78%....... 55/94 59% (13-1)
2007 20/27 74%....... 61/95 64% (9-4)
2008 16/22 73%....... 65/94 69% (13-1)
2009 12/17 71%....... 69/93 74% (13-1)
2010 21/27 78%....... 69/93 74% (8-5)
-------------------
2011* 11/19 58%...... 60/85 71% (7-6)
2012 13/22 59%....... 57/85 67% (11-2)
2013 16/29 55%....... 61/97 62% (4-8)
2014 13/24 54%....... 53/94 56% (7-5)
-------------------
2015* 7/21 33%........ 49/96 51% (10-4)
2016 10/25 40%....... 46/99 46% (9-4)
2017 15/23 65% ...... 45/93 48%

Rivals only goes back to 2002 so that's as far back as I could go.
Some take aways:
The 2015 class was the worst going all the way back to 2002 with Zook's transition class.
Transition classes hurt.
Meyer was signing classes in the 70's which eventually got our 4 year numbers up to 74%.
Recruiting of bluechippers dropped off with Chump, compared to Meyer. Chump's classes ranked high I assume because although he took fewer bluechippers they were high quality.
Not counting transition years Meyer signed on average 18 bluechippers a class. Let's call that the gold standard.
If you're aiming for 66% bluechips that's 16.5 per class of 25.

Your post seems to be about signees not rosters. I looked at the original article and can not tell if it is about rosters or signees. Signees are much LESS relevant than rosters. You play games with an 85 man roster not the 100 guys you recruited over the last 4 classes. So what matters most is who is on your roster.

 

[InstiGATOR1]

The 1995 and 2000 classes were right up there in the top three, and there were others. On balance he and his staff recruited very well. Under rated as a recruiter because he had trouble recruiting QBs and WRs, despite his offensive genius, believe it or not. Everywhere else we recruited quite well. Plus, the guy was a freakin' WITCH on the sideline. I think some of us would cut Mac some slack if he could coach an offense that was at least in the top 30 for godsakes. When he was in his prime, Spurrier could have taken the three-star players Mac's loaded this team up with and turned it into a top ten offense.

UF's 1992 class was the top rated class in the country and maybe the best of all time.

 

[gatormandan]

(Cue the dumper excuses about Muschamps defense, SEC East, etc. - Mac's fault when he loses, but no credit to him when he wins)

Not me, I am no dumper. I do however wonder when we will actually have an offense.

 

[NavetG8r]

The 1995 and 2000 classes were right up there in the top three, and there were others. On balance he and his staff recruited very well. Under rated as a recruiter because he had trouble recruiting QBs and WRs, despite his offensive genius, believe it or not. Everywhere else we recruited quite well. Plus, the guy was a freakin' WITCH on the sideline. I think some of us would cut Mac some slack if he could coach an offense that was at least in the top 30 for godsakes. When he was in his prime, Spurrier could have taken the three-star players Mac's loaded this team up with and turned it into a top ten offense.

I'm going to disagree with you for one primary reason. The Oline Mac inherited. The quality was thin and depth was even thinner. You cannot field a productive offense without at least a serviceable Oline. It finally looks like the talent could there to have a serviceable Oline, but quality depth is still questionable. Injuries could once again leave us looking like pee wee league unless lady luck rides with the Gators this year.

And before the dumpers start jumping down my throat about it being Mac's responsibility to fix the offense, and that includes the Oline, I agree. This is the year the offense needs to show improvement. The injury excuse won't hold water for his 3rd year, but injuries definitely could seal his fate at UF.

 

[ThreatMatrix]

Your post seems to be about signees not rosters. I looked at the original article and can not tell if it is about rosters or signees. Signees are much LESS relevant than rosters. You play games with an 85 man roster not the 100 guys you recruited over the last 4 classes. So what matters most is who is on your roster.

Correct. It's signees not roster only because I don't have quick access to roster. But obviously if you sign three deep blue chippers you're more likely to have depth than if you sign only 2 deep.
The point of discussing blue chippers is just have a different way of looking at recruiting other than class ranking which is discussed endlessly. BTW I also broke it down by offense and defense. One coach may have top ranked classes loaded with defensive players the other coach maybe is loaded with offensive players. Maybe you see some patterns maybe you don't.


Year.....BlueChip/non....Percentage - 4 year total....Percentage....Total Defense ranking
2002 3/7 30%
2003 8/6 57%
2004 8/4 67%
----------------
2005* 5/2 71%....... 24/19 55%
2006 9/3 75%........ 30/15 67%
2007 10/3 77%...... 32/12 76%
2008 8/3 67%........ 32/11 74%
2009 5/1 83%........ 32/10 76%
2010 12/2 86% - 35/9 88% 9th (Wow Meyer really killed it)
-------------------
2011* 4/5 44% - 29/10 74% 8th
2012 7/7 50% - 28/15 65% 5th
2013 12/3 80% - 35/17 67% 8th
2014 7/2 78% - 30/17 64% 15th
-------------------
2015* 2/6 25% - 28/18 60% 8th
2016 2/9 18% - 23/20 53% 5th
2017 7/5 58% - 28/22 56%

Now for offense
Year.....BlueChip/non....Percentage - 4 year total....Percentage....Total Offense ranking
2002 5/7 42%
2003 6/5 55%
2004 3/7 30%
----------------
2005* 3/6 33% - 17/42 40%
2006 9/3 75% - 21/42 50%
2007 9/2 81% - 24/42 57%
2008 6/2 75% - 27/40 68%
2009 6/4 60% - 30/41 73%
2010 7/1 88% - 28/9 76% 83rd
-------------------
2011* 7/2 78% - 26/9 75% 105th
2012 6/2 75% - 26/9 75% 104th
2013 4/9 31% - 25/14 64% 115th
2014 6/7 46% - 23/20 53% 96th
-------------------
2015* 4/8 33% - 20/26 77% 112th
2016 4/8 33% - 18/32 36% 116th
2017 8/2 80% - 22/25 47%

 

[InstiGATOR1]

Correct. It's signees not roster only because I don't have quick access to roster. But obviously if you sign three deep blue chippers you're more likely to have depth than if you sign only 2 deep.

Well if more "blue chippers" leave than non-blue chippers, then a team has fewer blue chippers than the numbers presented suggest. Of course the opposite could be true too. It really should be pretty easy to go to UF's rosters, and go player by player and calculate the proportion of blue chippers.

I guess the one reason to do it your way is that if a team like UF for example has a bunch of blue chip QBs, yet a non blue chip like Allen wins the job, that team did not just give the job to a non blue chipper. Rather the non blue chipper is validated by beating out blue chip players.

 

[Swamp Donkey]

Mac's fault when he loses, but no credit to him when he wins

Losing 8 games in two years isn't winning. He's Jim Donnan or Ron Zook with slightly more luck. Hell, not only is he not winning, often he isn't even scoring.

If he ever wins anything, I might change my mind. So far he's just fat Muschump who can't recruit.

 

[InstiGATOR1]

Losing 8 games in two years isn't winning. He's Jim Donnan or Ron Zook with slightly more luck. Hell, not only is he not winning, often he isn't even scoring.

If he ever wins anything, I might change my mind. So far he's just fat Muschump who can't recruit.

Let's see in the McElwain era UF has played 13 games UF must and did win:

NM State, ECU, UK (twice), UMo (twice), Vandy (twice), So.Car (twice), FAU, UMass, No Tx,

That leaves by my liberal count leaves 14 games on which to judge McElwain. (I say liberal because really UF should always beat UAR and Mississippi too.) McElwain is 6-8 in those games.

 

[ThreatMatrix]

Well if more "blue chippers" leave than non-blue chippers, then a team has fewer blue chippers than the numbers presented suggest. Of course the opposite could be true too. It really should be pretty easy to go to UF's rosters, and go player by player and calculate the proportion of blue chippers.

I guess the one reason to do it your way is that if a team like UF for example has a bunch of blue chip QBs, yet a non blue chip like Allen wins the job, that team did not just give the job to a non blue chipper. Rather the non blue chipper is validated by beating out blue chip players.

I wish I had roster numbers but I'm too lazy to look that up. But it would be interesting to know compared to signees how many actually made the team.

 

[ThreatMatrix]

Current class is 43% blue chips
MEATXHICEN
2014 7/9
2015 7/10
2016 16/14
2017 19/28 48/110 43%

So meatcicken is at 43%
We are at 48%

So pretty close. Except we have our starting safery and starting wr not playing,
if i'm a betting my money is on meatchichen.

place ur vote

 

[Durty South Swamp]

if i'm a betting my money is on meatchichen.