Super Bowl LVIII: San Francisco vs. Kansas City

oxrageous

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With the rules forcing defenses to play with their hands tied behind their back, it doesn't take a good QB anymore to win a Super Bowl. Even Stafford proved that as long as you're ugly enough even a woman can win a Super Bowl in today's NFL.
You have no evidence of this claim. We all hate Fattford but the one thing he can do is sling the ball to every corner of the field.
 

fischerwood

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DAYTWAH blew the game 'cause the smart-ass coach decided not to just kick 2 field goals...what a dummy..I hope he gets his ass fired!!!
 

soflagator

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The choice is always there for Lamar to run. He's the most lethal runner the NFL has ever seen. Nobody has stopped him yet, except himself.

The issue for QBs like Lamar is psychological. The ego takes control and they can't help themselves. Because every human since birth has been programmed by the same loser axioms that says there's only one way to play quarterback in the NFL. Outcasts, like Lamar, have to prove to the world they're an elite passer too. If they don't they will never truly feel successful.

The cycle will continue until the day Lamar eschews that loser mentality and embraces who he really is. Only then do the Ravens become a legit Super Bowl contender.

As was mentioned by Ox, the idea that he could just go out in this type of setting, and dominate strictly with his legs is nonsense. Defenses would just take it away. For that matter, when he had to rely on his arm late in the game for a chance at a comeback, he basically completed one down field pass, threw a pic and managed a FG. Further, even if that’s the route he chose to take, there are people who write his check, who don’t want to see him running and being tackled every play. It’s why all the Twitter talk of “not bad for a guy nobody wanted last year” is silly. He’s a fine player. More of an athlete than a QB, but it’s not that no one wants him. It’s simply a question of whether anyone wants to pay him that much money, knowing he’s not winning them anything.

I’ll also add this. I’m no KC fan, but anyone who thinks 17 points was all they could muster is fooling themselves. There’s a WM/Driskel element to Baltimore and Reid recognized that. To his credit, he learned from his mistakes and Philadelphia and knows when to keep his foot on the gas and when not to. That last drive exemplifies that. When they needed to move the ball they did. They just didn’t feel the need to press things much of the game because they saw no threat in the Ravens scoring.

And @SGG is correct. Vick was probably the most dynamic run threat QB ever. But he also flamed out in the playoffs every year. I’ve said this numerous times, but the lines have been blurred between “dual threat QB” and “athlete who can kind of throw”.
 

soflagator

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Never said Lamar had to run 100 percent of the time.

He can’t make Al the NFL throws. That’s his issue. There’s a reason why guys like Johnson and Dilfer have rings. They had great defenses that ultimately won it for them, but they could sit in the pocket(not that there was much other choice), actually read a defense and make the throws. That’s reality. The Mannings and Brady run 7.4 40’s, and Stafford is pushing 3 bills. Yet they have rings. Guys like LJ, Manziel, even Mayfield do not and will not.

I also have a pretty clear policy/theory that QBs with lower arm tattoos will never win a SB, but that’s a separate, also correct, issue.
 

Zambo

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In my mind there is a difference between a quarterback that can run vs a running quarterback. Purdy and Burrow are examples of guys that can make things happen with their legs if a play breaks down. Mahomes may be the best at it that there ever was. But these guys are passers. Now LJ is who he is and trying to be something else isn't the answer for him. I agree with those who say he should have taken off running earlier rather than hang in the pocket too long and take a sack. Even a 3 yard gain is miles better than getting sacked. But there is also no getting around the fact that an NFL quarterback has to be able to make the NFL throws no matter how well he can run.
 

Detroitgator

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In my mind there is a difference between a quarterback that can run vs a running quarterback. Purdy and Burrow are examples of guys that can make things happen with their legs if a play breaks down. Mahomes may be the best at it that there ever was. But these guys are passers. Now LJ is who he is and trying to be something else isn't the answer for him. I agree with those who say he should have taken off running earlier rather than hang in the pocket too long and take a sack. Even a 3 yard gain is miles better than getting sacked. But there is also no getting around the fact that an NFL quarterback has to be able to make the NFL throws no matter how well he can run.
Agreed... and on the Purdy note, he didn't beat Detroit with his arm, it was the 5 times that his pocket broke down and he ran that were critical. Not a single one of those runs was a designed play or option. No open receivers, pocket breaking down.... ran and no Detroit player in the middle to get him. Those 48 rushing yards were probably the most critical of the 413 total yards... every one of them extended a drive.
 

oxrageous

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DAYTWAH blew the game 'cause the smart-ass coach decided not to just kick 2 field goals...what a dummy..I hope he gets his ass fired!!!
Firing Campbell today would absolutely be a Detroit Lions kind of move. It would be hilarious.
 

78

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In my mind there is a difference between a quarterback that can run vs a running quarterback. Purdy and Burrow are examples of guys that can make things happen with their legs if a play breaks down. Mahomes may be the best at it that there ever was. But these guys are passers. Now LJ is who he is and trying to be something else isn't the answer for him. I agree with those who say he should have taken off running earlier rather than hang in the pocket too long and take a sack. Even a 3 yard gain is miles better than getting sacked. But there is also no getting around the fact that an NFL quarterback has to be able to make the NFL throws no matter how well he can run.

As a suffering Bears fan, emphasis on long, I've engaged in this exact same discussion about 739 times over the past two months, during which time Bears fans have been at each other's throats over trading the first pick for draft capital versus taking Caleb Williams, who's clearly the better passer.

Justin Fields isn't a quarterback as much as he is an athlete, a great one at that. He's probably the best runner out of the pocket in the game today. But that doesn't make him an effective QB. It doesn't even make him a good quarterback. It makes him what he is, maddeningly hesitant as a passer, wildly inconsistent and awful in the red zone. Sound familiar, AR15 fans?

Being able to run from trouble has become so much of a crutch that it actually hurts Fields. He's way too undisciplined. Don't tell that to the Justinsexuals, who believe he's a Marvin Harrison Jr. draft pick away from greatness.
 

Concrete Helmet

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Leave how you were accidentally conceived outta this!
Don't worry buddy....it's hockey season....

Some fans attribute the Lions' woes to Layne, traded in 1958, who allegedly cursed them for 50 years. The curse's validity is questionable, as the quote was never verified and the Lions won a playoff game in 1991, but they have not claimed a championship or a conference title since 1957.
 

g8r.tom

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QB's who can't pass in the modern era don't win Super Bowls, unless they have historic defenses behind them (85 Bears, 00 Ravens, 02 Bucs). This fantasy that Jackson could just take off running every play and be a dominant champion is laughable. Defenses would simply adjust if he's not a threat to complete a pass.

Jackson has had an advantage over other playoff-loser QB's (like Romo and Dak) as he's ALWAYS had a top defense behind him, meaning he doesn't even have to score that many points to win and still comes up short.

What Baltimore SHOULD do is at least try and finally get an elite RB behind him to shoulder the load. Since Ray Rice, they have had a group of total stiffs carrying the ball.

They had two, bot got injured, JK Dobbins and Keaton Mitchel.
 

Detroitgator

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OK, as a lifelong Lions fan, here are my thoughts/comments...

There is no "moral victory" here of getting to the NFC championship game. The loss sucks, period. And it doesn't have anything to do with the 4th down decisions. Detroit just failed to execute on plays that they had made all season, period (and Campbell talked about it in his presser, while being VERY careful not to mention a specific play or player, and that's very important… more on “leadership vs rah rah coach below). San Fran executed, like they had all season, and especially at critical moments, and Detroit didn't. End of season.

Disclaimer up front: I've said this before - I will state again that I'm the dumbest guy on this board when it comes to X's and O's (at least bottom percentile!), but I will also state again that I will put myself up against anyone on this board when it comes to what the Army calls "small unit leadership" and a football team falls into that category. A football team has sections, squads, and platoons that make up a rifle company or cavalry troop that ALL have to perform to win at the highest level.

Leader/Leadership vs. Rah Rah Coach/Peter Principle:

From my observation, many people here (and most everywhere) seem to put Dan Campbell in the same category as a Zook or Muschamp when it comes to emotion and as a “rah rah coach.” On that note, you would be PARTIALLY correct. But Zook and Muschamp are NOT leaders... they are guys that people will follow, but “rah rah” only gets you to a certain point and then things break down and your true small unit colors (warts) show. Zook and Muschamp lack competence and proved the Peter Principle when rising to be Head Coach of an organization. Campbell has not proved the Peter Principle, not even close. In fact, he’s done just the opposite and overachieved so far. Additionally, while very emotional off field, you actually don't see stupid/wasteful/even harmful “rah rah” emotion on the sideline from Campbell. He's very cool under pressure if you watch him closely. He's a leader, and he understands the strengths, and more importantly, weaknesses of his “sections, squads, and platoons” that make up his “rifle company.”

Big Picture:

In the big picture of things, this was Year 2 of "3 Years" for the rebuild. This was something that was VERY clearly stated up front… “3 years”… not like our UF “be patient rebuild” that lacks definition. In that sense, Campbell (and the supporting organization under Sheila and Holmes) is well ahead of schedule, but the weakness was exposed last night. Detroit’s offense is fine… can compete with anyone. Rookies that they thought would take time to develop had record, all-pro seasons… they are ahead of schedule. Detroit’s defense still has weak “sections,” Campbell (and the organization) KNOWS this, and he very carefully/subtly addressed this in the post-game presser last night with obvious great pain and while not naming a single individual… that will come later, individually, the way a LEADER does things. For example, I love Sutton’s effort in every game, but even he knows he’s far from a lock down corner, but there he is, every week, 1 on 1 with the opponents #1 receiver. Campbell tried to compensate for that all season, but with CJ out (back for the last 2 playoff games) of the 3 safety rotation, and Huston out (back last night after being out all season) of pass rushing, but it just wasn’t enough for the “fire teams and squads of that platoon” to collectively overcome a better team. I think it is for this reason, the collective shortcomings this defense had coming into the season, that Dan went for it on 4th down all season instead of “taking the points”, not because he’s an emotional child with balls bigger than his brain. It was a conscious decision to overcome a known weakness.

4th Downs – “Go For It” vs. “Take the Points”:

Going into the game last night, the Lions had gone for it on 4th and 3 or less;
  • 20 of 24 times
  • Converted on 17 out of 20 of those attempts
  • 15-18 in regular season
  • 2-2 in playoffs (1 each vs Rams and Buccs)
  • The two plays in question were 4th and 2 and 4th and 3 respectively
This has been chalked up all season to “identity” and “it’s who we are” and “huge balls”… part of that is true, and it can be part of building team cohesion, which is critical in both the Army and a football team. But as the season went on, I firmly believe it was a very deliberate decision to compensate for a known weakness: the defense, and Badgley (our kicker) and here is why:
  • Googlez says that on average, an NFL team gets 10-12 offensive possessions per game.
  • Detroit effectively “took away” 17 possessions from its opponents by extending a drive. That's almost 2 complete games of possessions.
  • That’s the equivalent of 17 INTs/fumble recoveries that don’t show up in the stats
And then this regarding out kicker…
  • Badgley only had SIX field goal attempts all season, only two from 40+
  • All six were in a dome, and yes, he made all six going into last night’s game
  • He also missed 2 of 23 XP tries this season
  • Badgley’s career stats from 40-49 yards is 77% (37 of 48)
  • The two attempts last night would have been from 46 and 48 yards respectively
  • "Analytics" for both those attempts last night gave a slight edge to going for it and not kicking (and that's without figuring in who the kicker actually is, it's just raw numbers/stats).
  • The one FG he did kick before the half was from 21 yards out
When you look at it from Dan’s perspective, and given the known weakness on defense and kicking, and given the stats above going into the game, sure, just chalk it up to an “idiot with balls bigger than brains”… add to that the fact that the first attempt on 4th hit Reynolds in the hands and he dropped it… that was the real problem last night… we didn’t execute on 9-10 plays (half drops, other half letting Purdy run for those critical yards on busted plays, and the 51 yard "doink" catch off the Detroit defender who covered perfectly) when we needed too.

For me, this isn’t like the Lions of the 90’s or 2010’s where we SNUCK into the playoffs because we had a Barry Sanders or Stafford/Megatron that could overcome a ton of warts. We finally have ownership in the Ford family (and she was a Firestone, not a true Ford), a GM, and a Coach who know actually seem to know how to build and win… not just get a freak player or two. We’ll see what happens with personnel changes/the draft in the off season… You could see this break Dan’s heart in the presser that he knows they are going to have to replace guys who tried their hardest, did their best, were totally bought in, but just not good enough at the highest level.

That’s enough for now.
 
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Detroitgator

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Don't worry buddy....it's hockey season....

Some fans attribute the Lions' woes to Layne, traded in 1958, who allegedly cursed them for 50 years. The curse's validity is questionable, as the quote was never verified and the Lions won a playoff game in 1991, but they have not claimed a championship or a conference title since 1957.
Hey, the Pistons finally won their SIXTH game in 46 tries yesterday... so there is that!
 

soflagator

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Agreed... and on the Purdy note, he didn't beat Detroit with his arm, it was the 5 times that his pocket broke down and he ran that were critical. Not a single one of those runs was a designed play or option. No open receivers, pocket breaking down.... ran and no Detroit player in the middle to get him. Those 48 rushing yards were probably the most critical of the 413 total yards... every one of them extended a drive.

But he ran because he had to, and there was no one open. If there had been someone open, he would’ve connected with an accurate pass. Several clutch moments saw Jackson either over through a receiver or under throw them. And of course, the interception in the end zone was egregious.

And to be fair, Purdy doesn’t have a SB ring either. So who knows? Maybe he folds on that stage as well. But as has been said, at least he’s shown the ability to make the throws when needed.
 

Detroitgator

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But he ran because he had to, and there was no one open. If there had been someone open, he would’ve connected with an accurate pass. Several clutch moments saw Jackson either over through a receiver or under throw them. And of course, the interception in the end zone was egregious.

And to be fair, Purdy doesn’t have a SB ring either. So who knows? Maybe he folds on that stage as well. But as has been said, at least he’s shown the ability to make the throws when needed.
TLDR
 

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