Super Bowl LVIII: San Francisco vs. Kansas City

[oxrageous]

As a suffering Bears fan, emphasis on long, I've engaged in this exact same discussion about 739 times over the past two months, during which time Bears fans have been at each other's throats over trading the first pick for draft capital versus taking Caleb Williams, who's clearly the better passer.

Justin Fields isn't a quarterback as much as he is an athlete, a great one at that. He's probably the best runner out of the pocket in the game today. But that doesn't make him an effective QB. It doesn't even make him a good quarterback. It makes him what he is, maddeningly hesitant as a passer, wildly inconsistent and awful in the red zone. Sound familiar, AR15 fans?

Being able to run from trouble has become so much of a crutch that it actually hurts Fields. He's way too undisciplined. Don't tell that to the Justinsexuals, who believe he's a Marvin Harrison Jr. draft pick away from greatness.

There's no doubt in my mind Chicago will be trading Fields. It's the right move.

 

[oxrageous]

They had two, bot got injured, JK Dobbins and Keaton Mitchel.

Combine them both together and they still suck balls.

 

[Detroitgator]

Not yours. The intro was great. Plan to get through the next chapter over lunch and then will try to finish tonight on my flight to Bali.

ProTip #8956: I would recommend reading it on the 16+ hour long haul flight you have to take to Tokyo, Taipei, Doha or Dubai to get there...

 

[soflagator]

ProTip #8956: I would recommend reading it on the 16+ hour long haul flight you have to take to Tokyo, Taipei, Doha or Dubai to get there...

Spirit has a direct from Gainesville to Jakarta. I water taxi from there.

 

[Detroitgator]

Spirit has a direct from Gainesville to Jakarta. I water taxi from there.

$39 is $39!!!

On the serious (but sad) side, when I go to the "ammunition end"/East Java, I fly into Bali, but never get to stay there.... If you're wondering, the "weapons end" is the west end, fly into Jakarta.

 

[TheDouglas78]

There's no doubt in my mind Chicago will be trading Fields. It's the right move.

the last statement is exactly why Chicago won't do it.

 

[soflagator]

the last statement is exactly why Chicago won't do it.

I could see it. But it would be for Tyrod Taylor and they’d give up the next 4 years 1st round picks.

 

[macNCheeseB]

I could see it. But it would be for Tyrod Taylor and they’d give up the next 4 years 1st round picks.

That is unfortunately so true. See the draft pick trades to get Trubisky trade a few years ago. We all shook our heads.

 

[Back Alley Gator]

OK, as a lifelong Lions fan, here are my thoughts/comments...

There is no "moral victory" here of getting to the NFC championship game. The loss sucks, period. And it doesn't have anything to do with the 4th down decisions. Detroit just failed to execute on plays that they had made all season, period (and Campbell talked about it in his presser, while being VERY careful not to mention a specific play or player, and that's very important… more on “leadership vs rah rah coach below). San Fran executed, like they had all season, and especially at critical moments, and Detroit didn't. End of season.

Disclaimer up front: I've said this before - I will state again that I'm the dumbest guy on this board when it comes to X's and O's (at least bottom percentile!), but I will also state again that I will put myself up against anyone on this board when it comes to what the Army calls "small unit leadership" and a football team falls into that category. A football team has sections, squads, and platoons that make up a rifle company or cavalry troop that ALL have to perform to win at the highest level.

Leader/Leadership vs. Rah Rah Coach/Peter Principle:

From my observation, many people here (and most everywhere) seem to put Dan Campbell in the same category as a Zook or Muschamp when it comes to emotion and as a “rah rah coach.” On that note, you would be PARTIALLY correct. But Zook and Muschamp are NOT leaders... they are guys that people will follow, but “rah rah” only gets you to a certain point and then things break down and your true small unit colors (warts) show. Zook and Muschamp lack competence and proved the Peter Principle when rising to be Head Coach of an organization. Campbell has not proved the Peter Principle, not even close. In fact, he’s done just the opposite and overachieved so far. Additionally, while very emotional off field, you actually don't see stupid/wasteful/even harmful “rah rah” emotion on the sideline from Campbell. He's very cool under pressure if you watch him closely. He's a leader, and he understands the strengths, and more importantly, weaknesses of his “sections, squads, and platoons” that make up his “rifle company.”

Big Picture:

In the big picture of things, this was Year 2 of "3 Years" for the rebuild. This was something that was VERY clearly stated up front… “3 years”… not like our UF “be patient rebuild” that lacks definition. In that sense, Campbell (and the supporting organization under Sheila and Holmes) is well ahead of schedule, but the weakness was exposed last night. Detroit’s offense is fine… can compete with anyone. Rookies that they thought would take time to develop had record, all-pro seasons… they are ahead of schedule. Detroit’s defense still has weak “sections,” Campbell (and the organization) KNOWS this, and he very carefully/subtly addressed this in the post-game presser last night with obvious great pain and while not naming a single individual… that will come later, individually, the way a LEADER does things. For example, I love Sutton’s effort in every game, but even he knows he’s far from a lock down corner, but there he is, every week, 1 on 1 with the opponents #1 receiver. Campbell tried to compensate for that all season, but with CJ out (back for the last 2 playoff games) of the 3 safety rotation, and Huston out (back last night after being out all season) of pass rushing, but it just wasn’t enough for the “fire teams and squads of that platoon” to collectively overcome a better team. I think it is for this reason, the collective shortcomings this defense had coming into the season, that Dan went for it on 4th down all season instead of “taking the points”, not because he’s an emotional child with balls bigger than his brain. It was a conscious decision to overcome a known weakness.

4th Downs – “Go For It” vs. “Take the Points”:

Going into the game last night, the Lions had gone for it on 4th and 3 or less;

• 20 of 24 times
• Converted on 17 out of 20 of those attempts
• 15-18 in regular season
• 2-2 in playoffs (1 each vs Rams and Buccs)
• The two plays in question were 4th and 2 and 4th and 3 respectively

This has been chalked up all season to “identity” and “it’s who we are” and “huge balls”… part of that is true, and it can be part of building team cohesion, which is critical in both the Army and a football team. But as the season went on, I firmly believe it was a very deliberate decision to compensate for a known weakness: the defense, and Badgley (our kicker) and here is why:

• Googlez says that on average, an NFL team gets 10-12 offensive possessions per game.
• Detroit effectively “took away” 17 possessions from its opponents by extending a drive. That's almost 2 complete games of possessions.
• That’s the equivalent of 17 INTs/fumble recoveries that don’t show up in the stats

And then this regarding out kicker…

• Badgley only had SIX field goal attempts all season, only two from 40+
• All six were in a dome, and yes, he made all six going into last night’s game
• He also missed 2 of 23 XP tries this season
• Badgley’s career stats from 40-49 yards is 77% (37 of 48)
• The two attempts last night would have been from 46 and 48 yards respectively
• "Analytics" for both those attempts last night gave a slight edge to going for it and not kicking (and that's without figuring in who the kicker actually is, it's just raw numbers/stats).
• The one FG he did kick before the half was from 21 yards out

When you look at it from Dan’s perspective, and given the known weakness on defense and kicking, and given the stats above going into the game, sure, just chalk it up to an “idiot with balls bigger than brains”… add to that the fact that the first attempt on 4th hit Reynolds in the hands and he dropped it… that was the real problem last night… we didn’t execute on 9-10 plays (half drops, other half letting Purdy run for those critical yards on busted plays, and the 51 yard "doink" catch off the Detroit defender who covered perfectly) when we needed too.

For me, this isn’t like the Lions of the 90’s or 2010’s where we SNUCK into the playoffs because we had a Barry Sanders or Stafford/Megatron that could overcome a ton of warts. We finally have ownership in the Ford family (and she was a Firestone, not a true Ford), a GM, and a Coach who know actually seem to know how to build and win… not just get a freak player or two. We’ll see what happens with personnel changes/the draft in the off season… You could see this break Dan’s heart in the presser that he knows they are going to have to replace guys who tried their hardest, did their best, were totally bought in, but just not good enough at the highest level.

That’s enough for now.

Whew. Wish you'd put this kinda effort into the Ukraine thread.

 

[GatorInGeorgia]

Analytics strikes again.

So true. These analytics guys have perpetrated an amazing scam and are laughing all the way to the bank. Meanwhile, you have coaches that have fallen for this shyyt hook, line & sinker who otherwise might have won something of consequence.

 

[MidwestChomp]

For as good a job as Dan Campbell has done this year with Detroit, he’s really shyyt the bed tonight. Passing up 2 makeable FGs between 45 & 48 yards to go for it both times on 4th down was just plain stupid. The first one was the worst, IMO, because they had all the momentum and just gave that away to the 49ers. It’s been all downhill since then.

The end of the game was idiotic. Down ten, he elects to run it with 3 time outs and burns one. Then elects to go for it on 4th down instead of kicking a FG! What a maroon...

 

[fischerwood]

OK, as a lifelong Lions fan, here are my thoughts/comments...

There is no "moral victory" here of getting to the NFC championship game. The loss sucks, period. And it doesn't have anything to do with the 4th down decisions. Detroit just failed to execute on plays that they had made all season, period (and Campbell talked about it in his presser, while being VERY careful not to mention a specific play or player, and that's very important… more on “leadership vs rah rah coach below). San Fran executed, like they had all season, and especially at critical moments, and Detroit didn't. End of season.

Disclaimer up front: I've said this before - I will state again that I'm the dumbest guy on this board when it comes to X's and O's (at least bottom percentile!), but I will also state again that I will put myself up against anyone on this board when it comes to what the Army calls "small unit leadership" and a football team falls into that category. A football team has sections, squads, and platoons that make up a rifle company or cavalry troop that ALL have to perform to win at the highest level.

Leader/Leadership vs. Rah Rah Coach/Peter Principle:

From my observation, many people here (and most everywhere) seem to put Dan Campbell in the same category as a Zook or Muschamp when it comes to emotion and as a “rah rah coach.” On that note, you would be PARTIALLY correct. But Zook and Muschamp are NOT leaders... they are guys that people will follow, but “rah rah” only gets you to a certain point and then things break down and your true small unit colors (warts) show. Zook and Muschamp lack competence and proved the Peter Principle when rising to be Head Coach of an organization. Campbell has not proved the Peter Principle, not even close. In fact, he’s done just the opposite and overachieved so far. Additionally, while very emotional off field, you actually don't see stupid/wasteful/even harmful “rah rah” emotion on the sideline from Campbell. He's very cool under pressure if you watch him closely. He's a leader, and he understands the strengths, and more importantly, weaknesses of his “sections, squads, and platoons” that make up his “rifle company.”

Big Picture:

In the big picture of things, this was Year 2 of "3 Years" for the rebuild. This was something that was VERY clearly stated up front… “3 years”… not like our UF “be patient rebuild” that lacks definition. In that sense, Campbell (and the supporting organization under Sheila and Holmes) is well ahead of schedule, but the weakness was exposed last night. Detroit’s offense is fine… can compete with anyone. Rookies that they thought would take time to develop had record, all-pro seasons… they are ahead of schedule. Detroit’s defense still has weak “sections,” Campbell (and the organization) KNOWS this, and he very carefully/subtly addressed this in the post-game presser last night with obvious great pain and while not naming a single individual… that will come later, individually, the way a LEADER does things. For example, I love Sutton’s effort in every game, but even he knows he’s far from a lock down corner, but there he is, every week, 1 on 1 with the opponents #1 receiver. Campbell tried to compensate for that all season, but with CJ out (back for the last 2 playoff games) of the 3 safety rotation, and Huston out (back last night after being out all season) of pass rushing, but it just wasn’t enough for the “fire teams and squads of that platoon” to collectively overcome a better team. I think it is for this reason, the collective shortcomings this defense had coming into the season, that Dan went for it on 4th down all season instead of “taking the points”, not because he’s an emotional child with balls bigger than his brain. It was a conscious decision to overcome a known weakness.

4th Downs – “Go For It” vs. “Take the Points”:

Going into the game last night, the Lions had gone for it on 4th and 3 or less;

• 20 of 24 times
• Converted on 17 out of 20 of those attempts
• 15-18 in regular season
• 2-2 in playoffs (1 each vs Rams and Buccs)
• The two plays in question were 4th and 2 and 4th and 3 respectively

This has been chalked up all season to “identity” and “it’s who we are” and “huge balls”… part of that is true, and it can be part of building team cohesion, which is critical in both the Army and a football team. But as the season went on, I firmly believe it was a very deliberate decision to compensate for a known weakness: the defense, and Badgley (our kicker) and here is why:

• Googlez says that on average, an NFL team gets 10-12 offensive possessions per game.
• Detroit effectively “took away” 17 possessions from its opponents by extending a drive. That's almost 2 complete games of possessions.
• That’s the equivalent of 17 INTs/fumble recoveries that don’t show up in the stats

And then this regarding out kicker…

• Badgley only had SIX field goal attempts all season, only two from 40+
• All six were in a dome, and yes, he made all six going into last night’s game
• He also missed 2 of 23 XP tries this season
• Badgley’s career stats from 40-49 yards is 77% (37 of 48)
• The two attempts last night would have been from 46 and 48 yards respectively
• "Analytics" for both those attempts last night gave a slight edge to going for it and not kicking (and that's without figuring in who the kicker actually is, it's just raw numbers/stats).
• The one FG he did kick before the half was from 21 yards out

When you look at it from Dan’s perspective, and given the known weakness on defense and kicking, and given the stats above going into the game, sure, just chalk it up to an “idiot with balls bigger than brains”… add to that the fact that the first attempt on 4th hit Reynolds in the hands and he dropped it… that was the real problem last night… we didn’t execute on 9-10 plays (half drops, other half letting Purdy run for those critical yards on busted plays, and the 51 yard "doink" catch off the Detroit defender who covered perfectly) when we needed too.

For me, this isn’t like the Lions of the 90’s or 2010’s where we SNUCK into the playoffs because we had a Barry Sanders or Stafford/Megatron that could overcome a ton of warts. We finally have ownership in the Ford family (and she was a Firestone, not a true Ford), a GM, and a Coach who know actually seem to know how to build and win… not just get a freak player or two. We’ll see what happens with personnel changes/the draft in the off season… You could see this break Dan’s heart in the presser that he knows they are going to have to replace guys who tried their hardest, did their best, were totally bought in, but just not good enough at the highest level.

That’s enough for now.

So you DON"T think SF just knew the Lions would go for it on 4th down and prepared their defense for that eventuality? Hmmm... I'm flummoxed

 

[78]

the last statement is exactly why Chicago won't do it.

You apparently know Bears history.

 

[Silverback Gator]

Not an interesting match up for me. Tired of KC, not interested in SF.

 

[Detroitgator]

So you DON"T think SF just knew the Lions would go for it on 4th down and prepared their defense for that eventuality? Hmmm... I'm flummoxed

Detroit went for it on 4th three times in the game... on the first attempt, the ball when right off of Reynolds' hands, with a defender a yard behind him. Please tell me how SF's defense "worked" on that one? It didn't. Detroit just didn't execute. The second attempt was well defended and Detroit was lucky not to throw an INT on that one. The final attempt was the last TD. Please tell me how SF's defense "worked" on that one? It didn't.

I understand you are flummoxed, I am not, other than the lack of execution on the first one.

 

[Spurffelbow833]

How does the #1 most in demand entertainer in the world suddenly have all the free time she needs to go to NFL games every Sunday? The answer is serious advance planning. It's just another phony storyline in Roger Goodell's WWE NFL. Travis Kelce ain't getting anything you and I aren't other than whatever Goodell is tossing his way for playing along. My fandom was broken forever by the non-interference call that sent the Rams to the Superbowl over the Saints.

 

[oxrageous]

How does the #1 most in demand entertainer in the world suddenly have all the free time she needs to go to NFL games every Sunday? The answer is serious advance planning. It's just another phony storyline in Roger Goodell's WWE NFL. Travis Kelce ain't getting anything you and I aren't other than whatever Goodell is tossing his way for playing along. My fandom was broken forever by the non-interference call that sent the Rams to the Superbowl over the Saints.

These stupid NFL conspiracy theories I've been hearing lately have lowered my IQ to drooling levels.

Taylor Swift I'm sure can pull off getting on a plane and flying to games to watch her boyfriend, as she's not on tour. I don't like the stupid sideshow either, but pretending like it's some diabolical NFL plan is ludicrous. The NFL is insanely popular already - why would they need to try and pull off a stunt like that anyway?

Sober up.

 

[Durty South Swamp]

These stupid NFL conspiracy theories I've been hearing lately have lowered my IQ to drooling levels.

Taylor Swift I'm sure can pull off getting on a plane and flying to games to watch her boyfriend, as she's not on tour. I don't like the stupid sideshow either, but pretending like it's some diabolical NFL plan is ludicrous. The NFL is insanely popular already - why would they need to try and pull off a stunt like that anyway?

Sober up.

This board is insanely popular, but you're a total slut for a buck

 

[Zambo]

How does the #1 most in demand entertainer in the world suddenly have all the free time she needs to go to NFL games every Sunday?

Just add it to the long list of things you don't understand.

 

[Detroitgator]

Just add it to the long list of things you don't understand.

Flummoxed even!