- Oct 5, 2017
- 2,315
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Florida kicks off the home slate this Saturday with Will Muschamp's South Carolina Gamecocks. A team that I said in the preseason might fight Vandy for 1-9 and 0-10. Perhaps they will be looking ahead to that victory opportunity, just kidding.
In both of Dan Mullen's season at UF we have played close games that we took over with big runs (both in the play and scoring sense) in the second half to come away with a victory. However, I do not believe this year will be like that. If it is, it could spell trouble on the horizon. Or it may just be a Will Muschamp defense having success against a Dan Mullen offense, something we've seen numerous times throughout the last 15 seasons at various stops for both coaches.
Last week, Carolina lost in the most Will Muschamp way possible. He kicks a field goal with about 3:00 minutes to go instead of going for it on 4th and 13 because he is sure his team could stop Tennessee. Well, he was right. BUT then the punt happened, hit a Carolina player in the leg and Tennessee recovered the ball. Muschamp isn't happy, his old pal Mike Bobo isn't happy and the fans are not happy. Seem familiar?
Offense
Last week Trask and company put up a UF record for yards in a SEC game. One thing that I think has been understated is that the Ole Miss defense is not the Land Sharks of old. Last season they were 11th in points allowed and 12th in yards allowed. They returned just a few members of the worst passing defense in the SEC. This was good, however, because is allowed the offense to find its footing against an SEC team and show what they can do instead of starting with a possible struggle against a defense like Kentucky or Auburn.
I expect UF to challenge the #3 worst passing defense from last season through the air. Last week, Tennessee's Guano covered the Cocks for 259 yards through the air. That was a home game effort from Carolina. Sure, their top CB went off with injury and is expected back this week, but am I certain a groin injury won't impact his ability to keep up with Grimes, Toney, Pitts, Copeland, etc.? Nope. Speaking of Pitts, how will they try defending him? They are missing one starting linebacker and another is day-to-day with a knee injury, that's not good if you are going the physical route (though I wouldn't suggest that against Pitts anyway).
I also expect the Dan Mullen staple of trying to force the run. Last week, we actually saw quite a few good runs from the group and I believe the aforementioned issues at the LB spot for Carolina will also help us continue to improve the running game. For the record, South Carolina was the #3 worst run defense in the SEC last year and gave up 133 yards on the ground and 4.0 ypc last week. Chandler and Gray are not the running backs Pierce and Davis (who looked like his 2017 self) are. Add in Toney, Wright and even perhaps Lingard, and this running attack will be dangerous. Especially, when you consider they may drop seven or eight to try and slow down the pass.
I don't expect the offense to set a new record this week, but I do not think they will have to.
Defense
Last week, there were plenty of things that need fixing, but also there is some perspective shared be Top Billin, myself, and others that this is a good offense at Ole Miss that did this to plenty of teams last year and is only getting better with Kiffin. The good news is our offense is potent enough to make these defensive failures for some time.
Getting Shawn Davis and Brad Stewart back is a big piece to the puzzle. It limits Stiner's time on the field and perhaps after watching tape, maybe Dean will take more of a role as well from Stiner. I know, I shouldn't blame a lot on one kid, but then again, if you keep popping up on the other team's highlights, perhaps it can't be avoided. Another issue was one I think is also somewhat of an easy fix. Overall, Bogle and Cox played well for their experience level in Oxford. One part of their experience curve they can improve on quickly is not being so overaggressive and going too far up the field to create a gap for a QB to scramble. Hill is not Matt Corral, but better to give him a claustrophobic closing pocket than a running lane.
Shi Smith is a receiver worth watching, but I do not think it will be enough to overcome our defense. The Carolina rushing attack achieved just 89 yards against Tennessee with 2.9 ypc. That's bad. Even worse is their O-line might be jumbled before Saturday. Our aggressive defense (as long as they don't go into overaggressive territory) could have a field day. Returning Houston and Moon will also bolster the defensive rotations.
Prediction
It's a bad Will Muschamp team that we should easily win by multiple scores. I also just took a personality test at my wife's asking (Happy Birthday!) which gave me the personality type of Skeptic. Close longer than it should be.
Florida 38-South Carolina 21
SEC
Last week based on predictions in some thread which I don't remember I went 6-1 straight up (I'm terriible with the spread). Kentucky let me down while #PirateState didn't. Since the SEC has 70 games this season, I'll try to keep track with the goal of going no worse than 50-20.
Mizzou at Tennessee- Going with Tennessee. They are mediocre enough to overcome a team that just got beatdown by Bama.
A&M at Bama- That Vandy game shook the confidence in A&M, this game will break their spirit. P.S. I hope Bama drills them badly to lower ticket prices as we are currently the most expensive A&M ticket (2x what I could get into the A&M/Bama game for)...not that I'm going...yet. Or that it would be a weekend my wife is out of town already or if anyone wants to start a Truth to Kyle Field fund (j/k) or...Bama over A&M is what I guess I'm trying to say.
Ole Miss at Kentucky- Kentucky let me down last week, not giving them the chance this week. Getting Gatewood helps the offense, but it wasn't their offense (ok, a little was) who gave up 29 to Auburn. I like Corral and Ole Miss as an offense more than I do Nix and Auburn's. We will see. Ole Miss over Kentucky.
Arky at #PirateState- Arky surprised and gave me hope through 1 1/2 quarters last week, then bad everything, including bad Franks showed up and I had to turn my the game off on my phone. Luckily, #PirateState was giving me joy. #PirateState over Arky. P.S. Mike Leach has one of the best CFB accounts on the Twitter machine.
Auburn at UGA- UGA's offense didn't look good last week against Arky. Kevin Steele and company are on a whole new level. Though I like Ole Miss more than Nix and company, I do think they are more than capable of complimenting their defense while UGA remains to show that yet in my opinion. Although JT Daniels is cleared, I'm not sure it is enough. Auburn over UGA.
LSU at Vandy- Seriously, LSU can't be that bad can they? Sure I said in my Schedule preview I felt 6-4 might be a LSU best case scenario, but it is Vandy...I mean them playing A&M that close was a fluke, right? LSU over Vandy...I mean you have Vandy, Mizzou, Carolina and Arky...4-6 is achievable.
And at least we aren't FSU...Jacksonville State can't be playing for revenge a decade in the making and pull it off this time? Their starter is only a former Clemson back up...they will win this year...MAYBE.
Go Gators!
In both of Dan Mullen's season at UF we have played close games that we took over with big runs (both in the play and scoring sense) in the second half to come away with a victory. However, I do not believe this year will be like that. If it is, it could spell trouble on the horizon. Or it may just be a Will Muschamp defense having success against a Dan Mullen offense, something we've seen numerous times throughout the last 15 seasons at various stops for both coaches.
Last week, Carolina lost in the most Will Muschamp way possible. He kicks a field goal with about 3:00 minutes to go instead of going for it on 4th and 13 because he is sure his team could stop Tennessee. Well, he was right. BUT then the punt happened, hit a Carolina player in the leg and Tennessee recovered the ball. Muschamp isn't happy, his old pal Mike Bobo isn't happy and the fans are not happy. Seem familiar?
Offense
Last week Trask and company put up a UF record for yards in a SEC game. One thing that I think has been understated is that the Ole Miss defense is not the Land Sharks of old. Last season they were 11th in points allowed and 12th in yards allowed. They returned just a few members of the worst passing defense in the SEC. This was good, however, because is allowed the offense to find its footing against an SEC team and show what they can do instead of starting with a possible struggle against a defense like Kentucky or Auburn.
I expect UF to challenge the #3 worst passing defense from last season through the air. Last week, Tennessee's Guano covered the Cocks for 259 yards through the air. That was a home game effort from Carolina. Sure, their top CB went off with injury and is expected back this week, but am I certain a groin injury won't impact his ability to keep up with Grimes, Toney, Pitts, Copeland, etc.? Nope. Speaking of Pitts, how will they try defending him? They are missing one starting linebacker and another is day-to-day with a knee injury, that's not good if you are going the physical route (though I wouldn't suggest that against Pitts anyway).
I also expect the Dan Mullen staple of trying to force the run. Last week, we actually saw quite a few good runs from the group and I believe the aforementioned issues at the LB spot for Carolina will also help us continue to improve the running game. For the record, South Carolina was the #3 worst run defense in the SEC last year and gave up 133 yards on the ground and 4.0 ypc last week. Chandler and Gray are not the running backs Pierce and Davis (who looked like his 2017 self) are. Add in Toney, Wright and even perhaps Lingard, and this running attack will be dangerous. Especially, when you consider they may drop seven or eight to try and slow down the pass.
I don't expect the offense to set a new record this week, but I do not think they will have to.
Defense
Last week, there were plenty of things that need fixing, but also there is some perspective shared be Top Billin, myself, and others that this is a good offense at Ole Miss that did this to plenty of teams last year and is only getting better with Kiffin. The good news is our offense is potent enough to make these defensive failures for some time.
Getting Shawn Davis and Brad Stewart back is a big piece to the puzzle. It limits Stiner's time on the field and perhaps after watching tape, maybe Dean will take more of a role as well from Stiner. I know, I shouldn't blame a lot on one kid, but then again, if you keep popping up on the other team's highlights, perhaps it can't be avoided. Another issue was one I think is also somewhat of an easy fix. Overall, Bogle and Cox played well for their experience level in Oxford. One part of their experience curve they can improve on quickly is not being so overaggressive and going too far up the field to create a gap for a QB to scramble. Hill is not Matt Corral, but better to give him a claustrophobic closing pocket than a running lane.
Shi Smith is a receiver worth watching, but I do not think it will be enough to overcome our defense. The Carolina rushing attack achieved just 89 yards against Tennessee with 2.9 ypc. That's bad. Even worse is their O-line might be jumbled before Saturday. Our aggressive defense (as long as they don't go into overaggressive territory) could have a field day. Returning Houston and Moon will also bolster the defensive rotations.
Prediction
It's a bad Will Muschamp team that we should easily win by multiple scores. I also just took a personality test at my wife's asking (Happy Birthday!) which gave me the personality type of Skeptic. Close longer than it should be.
Florida 38-South Carolina 21
SEC
Last week based on predictions in some thread which I don't remember I went 6-1 straight up (I'm terriible with the spread). Kentucky let me down while #PirateState didn't. Since the SEC has 70 games this season, I'll try to keep track with the goal of going no worse than 50-20.
Mizzou at Tennessee- Going with Tennessee. They are mediocre enough to overcome a team that just got beatdown by Bama.
A&M at Bama- That Vandy game shook the confidence in A&M, this game will break their spirit. P.S. I hope Bama drills them badly to lower ticket prices as we are currently the most expensive A&M ticket (2x what I could get into the A&M/Bama game for)...not that I'm going...yet. Or that it would be a weekend my wife is out of town already or if anyone wants to start a Truth to Kyle Field fund (j/k) or...Bama over A&M is what I guess I'm trying to say.
Ole Miss at Kentucky- Kentucky let me down last week, not giving them the chance this week. Getting Gatewood helps the offense, but it wasn't their offense (ok, a little was) who gave up 29 to Auburn. I like Corral and Ole Miss as an offense more than I do Nix and Auburn's. We will see. Ole Miss over Kentucky.
Arky at #PirateState- Arky surprised and gave me hope through 1 1/2 quarters last week, then bad everything, including bad Franks showed up and I had to turn my the game off on my phone. Luckily, #PirateState was giving me joy. #PirateState over Arky. P.S. Mike Leach has one of the best CFB accounts on the Twitter machine.
Auburn at UGA- UGA's offense didn't look good last week against Arky. Kevin Steele and company are on a whole new level. Though I like Ole Miss more than Nix and company, I do think they are more than capable of complimenting their defense while UGA remains to show that yet in my opinion. Although JT Daniels is cleared, I'm not sure it is enough. Auburn over UGA.
LSU at Vandy- Seriously, LSU can't be that bad can they? Sure I said in my Schedule preview I felt 6-4 might be a LSU best case scenario, but it is Vandy...I mean them playing A&M that close was a fluke, right? LSU over Vandy...I mean you have Vandy, Mizzou, Carolina and Arky...4-6 is achievable.
And at least we aren't FSU...Jacksonville State can't be playing for revenge a decade in the making and pull it off this time? Their starter is only a former Clemson back up...they will win this year...MAYBE.
Go Gators!
was for the thread title. 
