- Sep 8, 2014
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Good article by Will Miles from Read and Reaction site:
Kyle Trask and the Next Step
Improvements so Florida can win the SEC East
Kyle Trask and the Next Step - Read and Reaction
Kyle Trask was one of the primary reasons that Florida went 11-2 in 2019.
Between rescuing the team after coming in for an injured Feleipe Franks against Kentucky to having Florida in a position to tie the game at 35 in the fourth quarter against LSU, Gators fans got more than they ever could have imagined out of Trask coming into the season. His passer rating of 156.1 ranked 16th in the country, and his completion percentage (66.9) ranked 13th.
So why is there so much noise from Gators fans to see what Emory Jones can do?
Well, my yards above replacement (YAR) metric tells a little bit different story, with Trask placing just slightly above average (YAR = 0.09). That’s because his 8.3 yards per attempt were only slightly more than the 2019 average (7.75) and he added negative value in the running game (63 attempts for 8 yards).
Still, it’s hard to ignore that when pressed into action, Trask led the Gators to wins. With a relatively easy schedule, the expectation is that he’ll lead the Gators to bigger and better things in 2020.
So where does he need to improve to make that happen?
The Burrow Comparison
Anyone who’s read my writing knows that I loved Joe Burrow as a transfer out of Ohio State.
The reason was simple. Burrow had a really high completion percentage in high school over multiple years and I believe that indicates a QB who knows how to read a defense. It looked like I would be wrong after Burrow had an up-and-down debut season in 2018, but obviously that prediction looked pretty good in 2019.
The reason I bring up Burrow is that Kyle Trask had a really high completion percentage in high school, albeit in limited time. Then, Trask went out in his first year starting and that completion percentage translated on the field for the Gators.
So should we expect a massive jump in performance between year one and two like LSU just saw with Burrow?
Well……no.
The disappointing – and surprising – thing for me about Burrow in 2018 was how inaccurate he was. He only completed 57.8 percent of his passes and had only one game above 57.1 percent in his first nine. But he then finished the season completing 67 percent of his passes over the last four games.
But the other thing is that his jump in accuracy came with another jump as well. His yards per completion in the first nine games was 12.5. It jumped to 14.4 in his last four. So not only was he much more accurate, but he was more accurate further down the field.
The same jump is not nearly as visible for Trask. In his first eight games – which included Auburn, LSU and Georgia – he averaged 12.2 yards per completion. In his final four games (Vandy, Missouri, FSU and Virginia), he averaged 12.7.
It is still an increase, but not remotely in the same league.
The other thing is that Trask completed 67 percent of his passes in the first eight games and 67 percent in the final four. That’s a really good completion percentage, but the reason that Burrow got so much better was that he got more accurate and threw the ball downfield more successfully.
That’s the real reason that a Burrow-like leap isn’t likely in the cards for Trask. There just isn’t anywhere to go.
Even if he improves his completion percentage considerably – let’s say up to 73 percent – while maintaining his yards per completion at 12.4, that still only lifts his YAR up to 0.73. That’s closer to the performances of Nebraska’s Adrian Martinez or Penn State’s Sean Clifford than Burrow or Tua.
Of course, Penn State still won a bunch of games last year. Trask doesn’t have to be – and shouldn’t be expected – to progress like Burrow. Small improvements in a few places could really make a big difference in 2020.
The QB Running Game
This is the one place where the Emory Jones supporters should get their wish.
Jones was used sporadically in 2019 and often just ran the ball. He was effective doing it as well, rushing for 6.1 yards per attempt (on 42 carries). If you add Jones’ stats to Trask’s line, Gators QBs had a YAR of 0.31 in 2019, indicating that Jones’ use did bring value to the team and that he was more efficient than Trask in his limited time.
But one thing we shouldn’t overlook is the game against Virginia. In the Orange Bowl, Trask ran for 37 yards on 8 carries. That was his most yards rushing in the entire year and came after a month off following the regular season.
It’s easy to forget looking back, but Trask went down with what looked like a gruesome knee injury against Auburn. He was able to come back into that game and didn’t miss any additional time, but anyone who’s sprained their knee knows that running at SEC defensive linemen isn’t on the top of the wish list as you heal.
The yardage is less important than what Trask can accomplish by being an effective runner. Everyone remembers the fourth-and-1 pass on the opening drive against Georgia that fell incomplete to Kyle Pitts. Lots of fans asked why Mullen didn’t run the ball on that play, but this play on second down is the reason.
Trask has to pull this ball from Perine. The defensive end crashes and catches Perine from behind. The entire point of leaving him unblocked is for Trask to occupy him. If he crashes, Trask needs to keep the ball and run for the first down.
Trask did that against Virginia, pulling the ball when necessary.
Here, the Cavaliers’ defensive end crashed down the line. Trask then scoots inside before the defensive back can get him and puts his head down to get a first down.
If Trask can average just 3.0 yards per rush (he averaged 4.6 vs. the Cavaliers) and Florida gets exactly what they got from him in the passing game last season, his season YAR would be 0.52, or solidly above average.
Add Jones’ contributions from 2019 to that total and you’re starting to approach elite-level status.
Improvements in the Passing Game
Of course, to be truly elite, Trask is going to have to improve in the passing game.
As mentioned previously, he likely isn’t going to do that with accuracy. Instead, he’s going to have to be more efficient when going downfield. And that may be a problem.
If you don’t know about it yet, check out www.secstatcat.com and go waste hours of your life. It’s a nerd’s dream with sortable stats for QBs that allows you to quickly look at how Trask played in lots of different situations.
Not counting South Carolina – since it was played in a downpour – Trask only had three games with a negative YAR: Auburn, Georgia and Missouri. What we see when comparing to the season overall tells us some interesting things.
Breakdown of Kyle Trask’s 2019 throws overall, inside the numbers and outside the numbers. (compiled by Read and Reaction from SECStatCat)
What we see is that the amount that Trask went downfield overall remained relatively constant, as he threw 20+ yards downfield 10 percent of the time and between 10-20 yards 27 percent for the season vs. 11 and 25 percent in the three poor performances.
But the interesting thing is how those numbers changed when I split them into being inside the numbers or from the numbers outside. For the season, Trask threw deep (20+ yards) down the middle of the field 5 percent of the time, but didn’t make one deep attempt in his poor performances.
However, he went deep outside the numbers 22 percent of the time in his poor performances versus 16 percent during the season. It appears as though the defense was forcing him to throw deep and to the outside.
Kyle Trask and the Next Step
Improvements so Florida can win the SEC East
Kyle Trask and the Next Step - Read and Reaction
Kyle Trask was one of the primary reasons that Florida went 11-2 in 2019.
Between rescuing the team after coming in for an injured Feleipe Franks against Kentucky to having Florida in a position to tie the game at 35 in the fourth quarter against LSU, Gators fans got more than they ever could have imagined out of Trask coming into the season. His passer rating of 156.1 ranked 16th in the country, and his completion percentage (66.9) ranked 13th.
So why is there so much noise from Gators fans to see what Emory Jones can do?
Well, my yards above replacement (YAR) metric tells a little bit different story, with Trask placing just slightly above average (YAR = 0.09). That’s because his 8.3 yards per attempt were only slightly more than the 2019 average (7.75) and he added negative value in the running game (63 attempts for 8 yards).
Still, it’s hard to ignore that when pressed into action, Trask led the Gators to wins. With a relatively easy schedule, the expectation is that he’ll lead the Gators to bigger and better things in 2020.
So where does he need to improve to make that happen?
The Burrow Comparison
Anyone who’s read my writing knows that I loved Joe Burrow as a transfer out of Ohio State.
The reason was simple. Burrow had a really high completion percentage in high school over multiple years and I believe that indicates a QB who knows how to read a defense. It looked like I would be wrong after Burrow had an up-and-down debut season in 2018, but obviously that prediction looked pretty good in 2019.
The reason I bring up Burrow is that Kyle Trask had a really high completion percentage in high school, albeit in limited time. Then, Trask went out in his first year starting and that completion percentage translated on the field for the Gators.
So should we expect a massive jump in performance between year one and two like LSU just saw with Burrow?
Well……no.
The disappointing – and surprising – thing for me about Burrow in 2018 was how inaccurate he was. He only completed 57.8 percent of his passes and had only one game above 57.1 percent in his first nine. But he then finished the season completing 67 percent of his passes over the last four games.
But the other thing is that his jump in accuracy came with another jump as well. His yards per completion in the first nine games was 12.5. It jumped to 14.4 in his last four. So not only was he much more accurate, but he was more accurate further down the field.
The same jump is not nearly as visible for Trask. In his first eight games – which included Auburn, LSU and Georgia – he averaged 12.2 yards per completion. In his final four games (Vandy, Missouri, FSU and Virginia), he averaged 12.7.
It is still an increase, but not remotely in the same league.
The other thing is that Trask completed 67 percent of his passes in the first eight games and 67 percent in the final four. That’s a really good completion percentage, but the reason that Burrow got so much better was that he got more accurate and threw the ball downfield more successfully.
That’s the real reason that a Burrow-like leap isn’t likely in the cards for Trask. There just isn’t anywhere to go.
Even if he improves his completion percentage considerably – let’s say up to 73 percent – while maintaining his yards per completion at 12.4, that still only lifts his YAR up to 0.73. That’s closer to the performances of Nebraska’s Adrian Martinez or Penn State’s Sean Clifford than Burrow or Tua.
Of course, Penn State still won a bunch of games last year. Trask doesn’t have to be – and shouldn’t be expected – to progress like Burrow. Small improvements in a few places could really make a big difference in 2020.
The QB Running Game
This is the one place where the Emory Jones supporters should get their wish.
Jones was used sporadically in 2019 and often just ran the ball. He was effective doing it as well, rushing for 6.1 yards per attempt (on 42 carries). If you add Jones’ stats to Trask’s line, Gators QBs had a YAR of 0.31 in 2019, indicating that Jones’ use did bring value to the team and that he was more efficient than Trask in his limited time.
But one thing we shouldn’t overlook is the game against Virginia. In the Orange Bowl, Trask ran for 37 yards on 8 carries. That was his most yards rushing in the entire year and came after a month off following the regular season.
It’s easy to forget looking back, but Trask went down with what looked like a gruesome knee injury against Auburn. He was able to come back into that game and didn’t miss any additional time, but anyone who’s sprained their knee knows that running at SEC defensive linemen isn’t on the top of the wish list as you heal.
The yardage is less important than what Trask can accomplish by being an effective runner. Everyone remembers the fourth-and-1 pass on the opening drive against Georgia that fell incomplete to Kyle Pitts. Lots of fans asked why Mullen didn’t run the ball on that play, but this play on second down is the reason.
Trask has to pull this ball from Perine. The defensive end crashes and catches Perine from behind. The entire point of leaving him unblocked is for Trask to occupy him. If he crashes, Trask needs to keep the ball and run for the first down.
Trask did that against Virginia, pulling the ball when necessary.
Here, the Cavaliers’ defensive end crashed down the line. Trask then scoots inside before the defensive back can get him and puts his head down to get a first down.
If Trask can average just 3.0 yards per rush (he averaged 4.6 vs. the Cavaliers) and Florida gets exactly what they got from him in the passing game last season, his season YAR would be 0.52, or solidly above average.
Add Jones’ contributions from 2019 to that total and you’re starting to approach elite-level status.
Improvements in the Passing Game
Of course, to be truly elite, Trask is going to have to improve in the passing game.
As mentioned previously, he likely isn’t going to do that with accuracy. Instead, he’s going to have to be more efficient when going downfield. And that may be a problem.
If you don’t know about it yet, check out www.secstatcat.com and go waste hours of your life. It’s a nerd’s dream with sortable stats for QBs that allows you to quickly look at how Trask played in lots of different situations.
Not counting South Carolina – since it was played in a downpour – Trask only had three games with a negative YAR: Auburn, Georgia and Missouri. What we see when comparing to the season overall tells us some interesting things.
Breakdown of Kyle Trask’s 2019 throws overall, inside the numbers and outside the numbers. (compiled by Read and Reaction from SECStatCat)
What we see is that the amount that Trask went downfield overall remained relatively constant, as he threw 20+ yards downfield 10 percent of the time and between 10-20 yards 27 percent for the season vs. 11 and 25 percent in the three poor performances.
But the interesting thing is how those numbers changed when I split them into being inside the numbers or from the numbers outside. For the season, Trask threw deep (20+ yards) down the middle of the field 5 percent of the time, but didn’t make one deep attempt in his poor performances.
However, he went deep outside the numbers 22 percent of the time in his poor performances versus 16 percent during the season. It appears as though the defense was forcing him to throw deep and to the outside.
