- Oct 5, 2017
- 2,315
- 6,299
For the last pre-season post I wanted to briefly look at our schedule. It is tough no doubt, but what I rarely hear or see people talk about is the context of where games fall on the schedule and where games fall in the context of opponent’s schedule. Sometimes it doesn’t matter. Sometimes a middling SEC team that took Alabama to the fourth quarter in 2022 in between two rivalry games (if you count one as a rival) is different than if they were sandwiched between Vandy and a cupcake. Sometimes a trip to probably near freezing temperatures looks different when it is after 3 physical match ups and before a big rivalry game than it would in mid-October.
I see a lot of toss up games on the schedule. Games we probably could, and many we should, win, but also I think there is a decent argument for us to lose as well. Essentially, if I didn’t feel 65-70 or more % sure, I marked toss toss up. Funny enough, I decided to see what ESPN’s FPI said about each game right now and overall, they were about the same as I was. I’m not sure if that’s a good or bad thing.
Utah- Toss Up
The short version is where last year Utah was the away team who had heavy roster turnover facing some climate conditions most of their team had never experienced. This year, the Gators are the away team who had heavy roster turnover facing some climate conditions most of their team had never experienced. Yes, there are several places where the turnover is addition by subtraction. However, as a first full real game together in a stadium where the home team has not lost with fans present in 5 years, it can be considered a toss-up.
McNeese St.- Win
Not much to say, Ox will buy the moving van for Billy if we were to lose this one. The question of this game is not winning and losing, but how long does it take to get the back ups in to get valuable game reps.
Tennessee- Toss Up
Tennessee comes to the Swamp with Joe Milton as QB. How much impact will the crowd and more aggressive defensive scheme make along with the deeper DL? Is Milton the same guy who took Clemson to the woodshed in the Orange Bowl or the guy who has lost the starting job at multiple schools? This game could go all sorts of ways. The night game and home field advantage definitely favors Florida, but Heupel’s offensive prowess in a balanced attack (ran for less than 1 yard per game in 2022 compared to Florida) could favor UT. This game is a toss-up at this stage.
Charlotte-Win
Another moving van special. Again, it’s a matter of when we can rest the starters and get valuable in game reps to our young guys.
Kentucky-Toss Up
The Gators have not played well in Lexington since 2013, and even that was a 3 point second half slog. I miss the days of knowing we would crush Kentucky and it looks like those days are coming again, but for this year, there are still questions and Kentucky has upgraded from last year’s team that beat the Gators. Granted, that game falls at the hands of AR. Hopefully, the Utah and UT games show we shouldn’t worry about this game. Until I see a dominant performance against a good team, this game will be a toss up in what is sure to be a hostile opponent.
Vandy-Win
You can’t lose to Vandy at Florida, much less twice in a row. At home, seeking revenge against Vandy (what a disgusting statement that is) I think the Gators put this one away easily. If not, be prepared for lots of noise.
South Carolina-Toss Up
Yes, we killed them last year. We also were killed by them the year before. They were playing a TE at RB against us last year. They also switched playcallers after our game and had a very impressive end to their season with wins over UT and Clemson. A new OC in town, but there are questions about what Spencer Rattler is. The Gamecocks have a few tough games before us, but also have a buy the week before. We’ve not played great in Williams-Brice since 2007. It is sneakily of the best environments in the SEC for football. Like UK, I miss this being an automatic win. I think the Gators can and should win it, but at them moment I still believe this is a toss-up.
Georgia-Loss
Though I think there is an outside chance we could win this like how Mizzou gave UGA a run last year, I think more than likely the talent and experience gap is still too great for the upset to be likely.
Arkansas-Toss Up
The Gators are 5-5 the week after UGA in the last 10. They are 1-1 against Arky in such match ups. The win was 2020 in Sam Pittman’s first year with Feleipe Franks as the Hogs QB. This year, the Hogs return the SEC’s best returning QB/RB duo in KJ Jefferson and Rocket Sanders. Last year the Hogs were the 2nd best rushing attack in the SEC and have a bye week before the Gators while the Gators get a physical match up with UGA the week before. It may come down to Florida Offense vs. Arky’s defense. A game the Gators should win, but it is also in trap game territory coming between UGA and LSU. Those are the reasons why this game is a toss-up. Decent chance at a win, but I can’t say a sure win.
LSU-Loss
Going into Death Valley after the Tigers trip to Tuscaloosa is a big help for the Gators. If it weren’t for the two physical matches the previous two weeks for the Gators it would mean more. I would not be shocked if CBS uses one of their double SEC dates for this weekend with Ole Miss-UGA possibly being one with Florida-LSU being the other. I’d say there’s a decent chance this game is played at night in Death Valley. LSU was a one score game last year and with a 3rd down stop before the 4th quarter we probably win. LSU got better as the season went on and started a good number of true freshmen who now return with a ton of experience. Although it is close to a toss-up, I feel this one leans more towards a loss.
Mizzou- Toss Up
SEC scheduling benefits us here, not as good as the up, down, up, down, up, down, up first 7 games, but in that Mizzou faces UGA and UT in the two weeks prior to the Gators trip to CoMo in late November. However, the Gators have never played well in CoMo and generally have not played well in cold weather. Mizzou returns two of the top rated DT’s and one of the top rated LB’s in the SEC. I don’t think they are special, I just am not sure of the shape the Gators will be in after 3 physical match ups before being on the road here. A game that we should be favored and with a different situation I’d mark as a win or sure. The circumstances are why this game is a toss up and why I’m sure others have it marked as a loss.
FSU-Toss Up
I don’t believe in FSU. I think they did get better from last year and I think we’ve mostly gotten better. They face Miami the week we face LSU. However, they get a cupcake before their trip to the Swamp and we get a 4th straight physical SEC game. I like our running game and defense against FSU. I think the passing game can be threatening as well. Like Mizzou though, the circumstances are why I have this game as a toss up at the moment.
*****
I honestly believe there is a bell curve from 3-9 to 10-2, where these are the extreme results with low chances on either end. For kicks, I'll say how those might take place, I think there is less than a 5% chance of either.
One extreme, 3-9 (absolute worst-case scenario) would be the Gators winning the cupcakes and Vandy and losing to everyone else. A tough loss to Utah and to a good Josh Heupel Tennessee team results in a 2-2 playing desperately in Kentucky on the road where we’ve struggled and lose another one score game. Then we beat Vandy before falling in Williams-Brice in another wacko Carolina game like the ones we’ve seen for the better part of a decade (and there have been a number of wacko games with results going to both teams). After the bye we lose to UGA and have a hangover at Arky before Death Valley does its thing. Under this scenario, a 3-7 team making a trip to CoMo would probably not have as much motivation and worn from 3 physical games drops a fourth. A 3-8 probably doesn’t come out hot against FSU and drops that game. Again, I believe there is a very, very low chance this happens, but figure I’d acknowledge the extremes.
The other extreme, 10-2 (absolute best-case scenario for this season in my mind) would see the Gators probably beating every team but UGA and LSU if I had to pick two losses. The Gators would do well in SLC and come out on top, possibly by multiple scores if Rising and Kuithe struggle in their attempt to play. The Gators defense stifles the next three opponents including forcing Milton into a lot of errant throws, some of which are returned for 6. Although the score may not be as lopsided, think of the defensive performance in 2007 and how the defense set up a big victory in Gainesville. The Gators go to Lexington, harass Leary behind another disappointing UK OL and the balance is shifted in this series for the foreseeable future. The Gators destroy Vandy before showing that last year’s big victory over the Gamecocks was not a fluke (especially considering the score in 2021 and how scores from year to year mean nothing). Out of the bye week, the talent gap leads to a close loss to UGA in a 4th quarter game. The Gators maintain focus and beat Arky wearing black. The next week, the Gators succumb to three straight physical games and the Death Valley in a close loss reminiscent of 2007 in that the game is a 4-quarter game and sometimes magic just happens against you. We go to CoMo and get back on track and take advantage of a less talented team that just went through a gauntlet themselves. We finish against FSU and victimize Travis like we should’ve last year if only we could make tackles. Seriously, 2 tackles are the difference in that game. Both scrambles to the ½ yard line become field goal attempts if we don’t let him escape multiple defenders in the back field. That’s at least 8 points (more if a FG was missed).
I think the most probable record is 6-6 or 7-5 (6.5 is the difference between 3 and 10 wins). We have upgraded talent and I think if we had this receiving group last year we would’ve won more games as well. I think there are some questions about this team, especially at OL (who have not had many practices full contact all together at all since Mazz got injured in the Spring and Leonard and Kingsley have had issues in fall camp after Mazz was cleared), LB and safety. I am not sure those questions are all answered the best in 2023 and we lose some games we shouldn’t like UK/Carolina/Arky/Mizzou while winning some of them. The last 5 games is about as tough of a 5 game stretch as I’ve seen for UF. I think Utah and UT are dangerous teams that we at least need to split. FSU I believe is overrated and will come down to where we are going into the game. I feel good if we have at least 6 wins. Anything less and I think my questions are answered negatively, we have injuries, and/or our youth and inexperience makes it a tough game. I don’t think wins against UGA and LSU are likely, but we’ve been surprised before.
I recently asked for people’s line for success and disappointment on the Twitter machine and the most common answer was 7-5. I think that is a good dividing line, either way, no losing season. A losing season I believe would hurt recruiting as negative recruiting from other coaches could flip a few guys.
My current pick for this season is 7-5, but next year would need a major jump. I’ve said before and I’ll say again, this season is 2007. The season you take lumps playing a ton of young guys because the next season, it will be time to prove something and now you have a lot of experience. We've heard the goal is to shock the world, Billy has said we don't know what he knows yet, hopefully, we learn what he knows and we do shock the world. I'm just waiting to see it to believe it.
I see a lot of toss up games on the schedule. Games we probably could, and many we should, win, but also I think there is a decent argument for us to lose as well. Essentially, if I didn’t feel 65-70 or more % sure, I marked toss toss up. Funny enough, I decided to see what ESPN’s FPI said about each game right now and overall, they were about the same as I was. I’m not sure if that’s a good or bad thing.
Utah- Toss Up
The short version is where last year Utah was the away team who had heavy roster turnover facing some climate conditions most of their team had never experienced. This year, the Gators are the away team who had heavy roster turnover facing some climate conditions most of their team had never experienced. Yes, there are several places where the turnover is addition by subtraction. However, as a first full real game together in a stadium where the home team has not lost with fans present in 5 years, it can be considered a toss-up.
McNeese St.- Win
Not much to say, Ox will buy the moving van for Billy if we were to lose this one. The question of this game is not winning and losing, but how long does it take to get the back ups in to get valuable game reps.
Tennessee- Toss Up
Tennessee comes to the Swamp with Joe Milton as QB. How much impact will the crowd and more aggressive defensive scheme make along with the deeper DL? Is Milton the same guy who took Clemson to the woodshed in the Orange Bowl or the guy who has lost the starting job at multiple schools? This game could go all sorts of ways. The night game and home field advantage definitely favors Florida, but Heupel’s offensive prowess in a balanced attack (ran for less than 1 yard per game in 2022 compared to Florida) could favor UT. This game is a toss-up at this stage.
Charlotte-Win
Another moving van special. Again, it’s a matter of when we can rest the starters and get valuable in game reps to our young guys.
Kentucky-Toss Up
The Gators have not played well in Lexington since 2013, and even that was a 3 point second half slog. I miss the days of knowing we would crush Kentucky and it looks like those days are coming again, but for this year, there are still questions and Kentucky has upgraded from last year’s team that beat the Gators. Granted, that game falls at the hands of AR. Hopefully, the Utah and UT games show we shouldn’t worry about this game. Until I see a dominant performance against a good team, this game will be a toss up in what is sure to be a hostile opponent.
Vandy-Win
You can’t lose to Vandy at Florida, much less twice in a row. At home, seeking revenge against Vandy (what a disgusting statement that is) I think the Gators put this one away easily. If not, be prepared for lots of noise.
South Carolina-Toss Up
Yes, we killed them last year. We also were killed by them the year before. They were playing a TE at RB against us last year. They also switched playcallers after our game and had a very impressive end to their season with wins over UT and Clemson. A new OC in town, but there are questions about what Spencer Rattler is. The Gamecocks have a few tough games before us, but also have a buy the week before. We’ve not played great in Williams-Brice since 2007. It is sneakily of the best environments in the SEC for football. Like UK, I miss this being an automatic win. I think the Gators can and should win it, but at them moment I still believe this is a toss-up.
Georgia-Loss
Though I think there is an outside chance we could win this like how Mizzou gave UGA a run last year, I think more than likely the talent and experience gap is still too great for the upset to be likely.
Arkansas-Toss Up
The Gators are 5-5 the week after UGA in the last 10. They are 1-1 against Arky in such match ups. The win was 2020 in Sam Pittman’s first year with Feleipe Franks as the Hogs QB. This year, the Hogs return the SEC’s best returning QB/RB duo in KJ Jefferson and Rocket Sanders. Last year the Hogs were the 2nd best rushing attack in the SEC and have a bye week before the Gators while the Gators get a physical match up with UGA the week before. It may come down to Florida Offense vs. Arky’s defense. A game the Gators should win, but it is also in trap game territory coming between UGA and LSU. Those are the reasons why this game is a toss-up. Decent chance at a win, but I can’t say a sure win.
LSU-Loss
Going into Death Valley after the Tigers trip to Tuscaloosa is a big help for the Gators. If it weren’t for the two physical matches the previous two weeks for the Gators it would mean more. I would not be shocked if CBS uses one of their double SEC dates for this weekend with Ole Miss-UGA possibly being one with Florida-LSU being the other. I’d say there’s a decent chance this game is played at night in Death Valley. LSU was a one score game last year and with a 3rd down stop before the 4th quarter we probably win. LSU got better as the season went on and started a good number of true freshmen who now return with a ton of experience. Although it is close to a toss-up, I feel this one leans more towards a loss.
Mizzou- Toss Up
SEC scheduling benefits us here, not as good as the up, down, up, down, up, down, up first 7 games, but in that Mizzou faces UGA and UT in the two weeks prior to the Gators trip to CoMo in late November. However, the Gators have never played well in CoMo and generally have not played well in cold weather. Mizzou returns two of the top rated DT’s and one of the top rated LB’s in the SEC. I don’t think they are special, I just am not sure of the shape the Gators will be in after 3 physical match ups before being on the road here. A game that we should be favored and with a different situation I’d mark as a win or sure. The circumstances are why this game is a toss up and why I’m sure others have it marked as a loss.
FSU-Toss Up
I don’t believe in FSU. I think they did get better from last year and I think we’ve mostly gotten better. They face Miami the week we face LSU. However, they get a cupcake before their trip to the Swamp and we get a 4th straight physical SEC game. I like our running game and defense against FSU. I think the passing game can be threatening as well. Like Mizzou though, the circumstances are why I have this game as a toss up at the moment.
*****
I honestly believe there is a bell curve from 3-9 to 10-2, where these are the extreme results with low chances on either end. For kicks, I'll say how those might take place, I think there is less than a 5% chance of either.
One extreme, 3-9 (absolute worst-case scenario) would be the Gators winning the cupcakes and Vandy and losing to everyone else. A tough loss to Utah and to a good Josh Heupel Tennessee team results in a 2-2 playing desperately in Kentucky on the road where we’ve struggled and lose another one score game. Then we beat Vandy before falling in Williams-Brice in another wacko Carolina game like the ones we’ve seen for the better part of a decade (and there have been a number of wacko games with results going to both teams). After the bye we lose to UGA and have a hangover at Arky before Death Valley does its thing. Under this scenario, a 3-7 team making a trip to CoMo would probably not have as much motivation and worn from 3 physical games drops a fourth. A 3-8 probably doesn’t come out hot against FSU and drops that game. Again, I believe there is a very, very low chance this happens, but figure I’d acknowledge the extremes.
The other extreme, 10-2 (absolute best-case scenario for this season in my mind) would see the Gators probably beating every team but UGA and LSU if I had to pick two losses. The Gators would do well in SLC and come out on top, possibly by multiple scores if Rising and Kuithe struggle in their attempt to play. The Gators defense stifles the next three opponents including forcing Milton into a lot of errant throws, some of which are returned for 6. Although the score may not be as lopsided, think of the defensive performance in 2007 and how the defense set up a big victory in Gainesville. The Gators go to Lexington, harass Leary behind another disappointing UK OL and the balance is shifted in this series for the foreseeable future. The Gators destroy Vandy before showing that last year’s big victory over the Gamecocks was not a fluke (especially considering the score in 2021 and how scores from year to year mean nothing). Out of the bye week, the talent gap leads to a close loss to UGA in a 4th quarter game. The Gators maintain focus and beat Arky wearing black. The next week, the Gators succumb to three straight physical games and the Death Valley in a close loss reminiscent of 2007 in that the game is a 4-quarter game and sometimes magic just happens against you. We go to CoMo and get back on track and take advantage of a less talented team that just went through a gauntlet themselves. We finish against FSU and victimize Travis like we should’ve last year if only we could make tackles. Seriously, 2 tackles are the difference in that game. Both scrambles to the ½ yard line become field goal attempts if we don’t let him escape multiple defenders in the back field. That’s at least 8 points (more if a FG was missed).
I think the most probable record is 6-6 or 7-5 (6.5 is the difference between 3 and 10 wins). We have upgraded talent and I think if we had this receiving group last year we would’ve won more games as well. I think there are some questions about this team, especially at OL (who have not had many practices full contact all together at all since Mazz got injured in the Spring and Leonard and Kingsley have had issues in fall camp after Mazz was cleared), LB and safety. I am not sure those questions are all answered the best in 2023 and we lose some games we shouldn’t like UK/Carolina/Arky/Mizzou while winning some of them. The last 5 games is about as tough of a 5 game stretch as I’ve seen for UF. I think Utah and UT are dangerous teams that we at least need to split. FSU I believe is overrated and will come down to where we are going into the game. I feel good if we have at least 6 wins. Anything less and I think my questions are answered negatively, we have injuries, and/or our youth and inexperience makes it a tough game. I don’t think wins against UGA and LSU are likely, but we’ve been surprised before.
I recently asked for people’s line for success and disappointment on the Twitter machine and the most common answer was 7-5. I think that is a good dividing line, either way, no losing season. A losing season I believe would hurt recruiting as negative recruiting from other coaches could flip a few guys.
My current pick for this season is 7-5, but next year would need a major jump. I’ve said before and I’ll say again, this season is 2007. The season you take lumps playing a ton of young guys because the next season, it will be time to prove something and now you have a lot of experience. We've heard the goal is to shock the world, Billy has said we don't know what he knows yet, hopefully, we learn what he knows and we do shock the world. I'm just waiting to see it to believe it.
good write up, thanks. I could quibble on the reasons why for each game, but overall I totally agree… just about everything going into this is “toss up” with a healthy dose of “it depends”
