All kidding aside, where do you see where have an advantage?
Only at the absolute most pivotal position - QB. We have a major advantage. Trask's receivers are not wide open all day or running for 60 yards after the catch very often. Maybe the receivers for Bama neutralize that advantage some by helping Jones out, but as good as they are, none are the matchup nightmare of Pitts. Not even D. Smith.
we need to run the ball when necessary to prevent 3rd and longs.
If we do that instead of striking as quickly and often as possible we will lose huge again. This is exactly the recipe for another Butteresque 41-14 loss.
SD is 100% correct here. It's almost like our own fans have not watched our games. We have such an efficient passing game that we must play to our strengths and plan to need at least 42+ to win. That is not ball control or playing to have short third downs. That is playing to have very few third downs. As
@soflagator pointed out, we need them playing with some pressure that comes from us pressing to score every down as though it is the last possession of the fourth quarter.
The team that wins this game doesn't have the better third down defense, it has the least total third downs per drive on offense.
I fully expect us to do what we normally do
Don't be so sure. When we played the two best offenses we have seen this season (Ole Miss and the collies), we were all a bit stunned how much Mullen was willing to go away from his tendencies and run a more traditional running game with more dynamic passing concepts (save for the EJ packages). We have moved away from that some, but even against the dwags we moved away from his reversion to option we have seen recently. I think the coaching may have been coasting. Whether that is smart or gets us away from playing crisply, is something we will find out.
Last point on the running game: early in the season, including against the pups, we were able to run off the left side of our line against better defenses than tinerc (thoguh the right side was always a mess - both Stewart and Delance). Since then, while I have not fully tracked the playside weighting, we are seemingly trying to force running right instead. It is nearly always a failure (option, slow developing stretches, or more traditional sets). Again, I wonder about whether we are trying to show false tendencies for Atlanta. I am certainly hoping so, because we could once functionally run off our left side.
Another way of looking at it is with common opponents. We have 6, so it's a decent sample size. The total point difference is 15(150 vs 135). They narrowly edged us in every contest, except A&M where they were much better, and OM where they were slightly worse. Still, a difference of about 2 points a game.
Great point and as with undervaluing of Trask's impact, this is understated. Even the margins of victory by Bama are more exemplary of Saban's style of focusing on the process and every play, block, footstep in pass protection of the right guard, etc. Saban just never stops, so their games have been more dominant even though their offense on a play to play basis is not too much better than ours.
Similarly, their defense is simply not good and they have only played one offense like ours - Ole Miss. Lane lit them up. Our offense is better than Ole Miss, and while its shocking our defense is better than anyone, with Campbell back, our defense is also better than most teams Bama has played.
Assuming we don't come out and try to do what at least half a dozen posters here want (run and slow the game down), we absolutely can win. Certainly not favored and unlikely to win most times if we played several times. But, a great QB is a major equalizer and we have one of the best we've ever had.