2023 Investing Thread

[Concrete Helmet]

How does EDV work? I looked it up on Yahoo, but tell me about it and why it's a good option now w/ these rates?

Rising rates put downward pressure on the price of long term bonds so when investors anticipate topping rates they will usually want to get into long duration bonds to capture the capital gains from what they anticpate to be dropping rates in the near future.....This happened in 2018/2019 when Trump threw a temper tantrum and Powell pivoted on his rate increases.

It's like timing the stock market or metals which usually both react the same way to falling rates. BTW there is no guarantee that this will happen sooner than later but consensus seems to be that 5.25% is about as high as the Fed dares to go.

 

[BMF]

Rising rates put downward pressure on the price of long term bonds so when investors anticipate topping rates they will usually want to get into long duration bonds to capture the capital gains from what they anticpate to be dropping rates in the near future.....This happened in 2018/2019 when Trump threw a temper tantrum and Powell pivoted on his rate increases.

It's like timing the stock market or metals which usually both react the same way to falling rates. BTW there is no guarantee that this will happen sooner than later but consensus seems to be that 5.25% is about as high as the Fed dares to go.

Okay - so how does EDV go up or down? In July of 2020 it hit all-time high of $175, and is at it's all-time low right now.

 

[Concrete Helmet]

Okay - so how does EDV go up or down? In July of 2020 it hit all-time high of $175, and is at it's all-time low right now

The higher the yield the lower the price....in theory it's like buying a stock....you want to buy when the price is lowest to be in position for the rate drop which will drive the price up.

It's starting to happen...read this

MSN

 

[soflagator]

Meanwhile me with my high yielding S.American and Lithium stocks

Between my original buy, then the two dollar cost average moves later, my nailing of the Chemours trade was as textbook as it was legendary.

 

[FireFoley]

Okay - so how does EDV go up or down? In July of 2020 it hit all-time high of $175, and is at it's all-time low right now.

Crete has explained it correctly, but simply put when rates rise, bond prices go down and vice versa. A bond has a price and the stated interest rate is based on when it is issued or sold and that price is called Par (usually 100, but can vary on certain instruments). After issuance if rates drop a lot, the price of your bond will go well above par b/c people will be willing to pay more for that higher stated interest rate. A bond priced above Par is called trading at a Premium. If rates rise a lot, the price of your bond will drop, b/c who would buy a bond with a lower stated interest rate when newer bonds are yielding more, thus it will trade below Par, know as trading at a discount.

In 2020 almost all rates were Zero or near Zero, thus high bond prices. Today rates are at 15 year highs, thus much lower bond prices.

 

[Concrete Helmet]

Maybe @FireFoley can help break this down for us a little. I mentioned a couple weeks ago that the Treasury was flooding the market which led to the recent spikes in overall bond rates. I had heard this was usually done before the printing and buying(QE) starts.
Are the dealers playing Chicken with the FED by slowing their buying? Or am I reading something wrong here? See the story below in the link.

MSN

 

[Altitude Gator]

Gotta close out my 401(k) from my old job from two years ago. Was going to open self-directed IRA and invest in metals, but not sure now if they aren't towards the top of their run.

 

[FireFoley]

The 5 YR auction was even weaker today, thus sending the 10 yr. near 5% again. I am not sure the dealers are playing possum b/c Primary Dealers have to take any excess that does not get sold at auction regardless of price. Now hedge funds, insurance co's. etc. are clearly demanding a lower price for what they want each auction. Add on top of that the increased amounts at each auction now, less buyers as it appears China has dropped out and is a net seller and now even Japan appears not to be buying in any quantity as the 10 yr. JGB has reached near 1%. That may seem low, but remember the currency differential as the Yen is about 150 to the dollar. So with the currency that weak, converting yen just to buy US Treasurys at some rate is not feasible or profitable.

 

[Concrete Helmet]

Gotta close out my 401(k) from my old job from two years ago. Was going to open self-directed IRA and invest in metals, but not sure now if they aren't towards the top of their run.

Take this FWIW, not advice....I thought about this several years back and the 2 things I couldn't get past were this...

1. If you're talking about a physical gold/silver IRA remember that the metals contained in that IRA HAVE to be kept at a specified vault.... not in your possession.

2. They become taxable when they are disbursed to you.

It is my understanding that with Gold(not sure about silver) you can sell up to 25 oz of bullion(coins not bars) at a time WITHOUT paying any taxes AS LONG as it's from a sovereign mint, Rand, Perth, US, Royal Canadian, British Royal and so on...

Not sure if any of this has changed so look into it if you are truly interested but there have also been some nightmare stories in the financial press about some peoples assets not being there when they were requested.

 

[no1g8r]

With the Turkish 3 year bond paying 30% plus, does anyone have any idea how to throw some speculative cash at it?

Asking for a friend, of course. I’d never do something that crazy on my own.

 

[FireFoley]

With the Turkish 3 year bond paying 30% plus, does anyone have any idea how to throw some speculative cash at it?

Asking for a friend, of course. I’d never do something that crazy on my own.

Call your brokerage firm and they should be able to conduct the transaction for you. But not sure just plunking your cash in US Treasuries at 5% risk free is not a better option, considering you would have to convert to Turkish Lira first and then convert back to dollars upon exiting your Turkish bonds.

The Turkish lira hold at a record low of 28.1 per USD in late October, after the central bank of Turkey raised interest rates for a fifth straight time as expected. The central bank hiked borrowing costs by 500bps to 35%, aiming to address high inflation as a component of a wider strategic shift in monetary policy. Since June, the central bank has redirected its focus from fostering economic growth to fight inflation, leading to a significant policy rate increase of 2,650 basis points. However, persistent depreciation of the Turkish lira, coupled with escalating taxes and fees, has pushed inflation higher, eroding the savings of Turkish citizens even in the face of a more stringent monetary policy. The lira has devalued by over 50% against the USD since the beginning of 2023, and inflation continues to hover above 60%.​

 

[no1g8r]

Call your brokerage firm and they should be able to conduct the transaction for you. But not sure just plunking your cash in US Treasuries at 5% risk free is not a better option, considering you would have to convert to Turkish Lira first and then convert back to dollars upon exiting your Turkish bonds.

The Turkish lira hold at a record low of 28.1 per USD in late October, after the central bank of Turkey raised interest rates for a fifth straight time as expected. The central bank hiked borrowing costs by 500bps to 35%, aiming to address high inflation as a component of a wider strategic shift in monetary policy. Since June, the central bank has redirected its focus from fostering economic growth to fight inflation, leading to a significant policy rate increase of 2,650 basis points. However, persistent depreciation of the Turkish lira, coupled with escalating taxes and fees, has pushed inflation higher, eroding the savings of Turkish citizens even in the face of a more stringent monetary policy. The lira has devalued by over 50% against the USD since the beginning of 2023, and inflation continues to hover above 60%.​

Hmm. I think the rule here is, “the more math involved, the less attractive the investment brcomes”. I’ll consider it to be svoassingvthought, nothing more. At least, that’s what my friend is thinking right now.

Thanks for the insight!

 

[Concrete Helmet]

Interesting indeed however with the US Dollar mauling every other currency around the world and Europe/China sucking wind it would be a matter of timing before considering the risk. Like everything else in the investment world right now it all hinges on the FED......We need a recession badly but in my opinion the data that would indicate that is being manipulated by those in power. Then we have to factor in the reality that the Fed is almost always 6 months to a year behind due to the lag effect of the data they use.

I don't see anything that outweighs the safety of the 5% plus return being given in Treasuries at this time. There may be some hope in the near future though now that the 2 year and 10 year are starting to unf vck themselves.....less that a 20 basis point inversion this morning.

 

[FireFoley]

Interesting indeed however with the US Dollar mauling every other currency around the world and Europe/China sucking wind it would be a matter of timing before considering the risk. Like everything else in the investment world right now it all hinges on the FED......We need a recession badly but in my opinion the data that would indicate that is being manipulated by those in power. Then we have to factor in the reality that the Fed is almost always 6 months to a year behind due to the lag effect of the data they use.

I don't see anything that outweighs the safety of the 5% plus return being given in Treasuries at this time. There may be some hope in the near future though now that the 2 year and 10 year are starting to unf vck themselves.....less that a 20 basis point inversion this morning.

Be sure to check out late Monday afternoon when the Treasury announces it's funding needs and how much they will auction next quarter. Me thinks that could have an affect on rates. Stay tuned.

 

[FireFoley]

Be sure to check out late Monday afternoon when the Treasury announces it's funding needs and how much they will auction next quarter. Me thinks that could have an affect on rates. Stay tuned.

Treasury announced today that the remaining amount to be sold the remainder of the year will be slightly less that what was "expected" due to higher tax receipts. Rates went down slightly initially but then crept back up. They announced a slightly greater amount needed for the 1st quarter of 2024. The bigger issue will come Wednesday when they break down the amounts for each duration.

 

[wrpgator]

Symbol CVM

https://cel-sci.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/CEL-SCI_shareholder_letter_from_CEO_Oct2023.pdf

I own 5500 shares and will be adding.

 

[BMF]

Symbol CVM

https://cel-sci.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/CEL-SCI_shareholder_letter_from_CEO_Oct2023.pdf

I own 5500 shares and will be adding.

This stock is up 10% today.

 

[Gator By Marriage]

This stock is up 10% today.

I have no idea where this stock is going and @wrpgator may make a killing - and I hope he does - but if you are interested, the stock price has a fascinating history. Check out the price from the late 80’s

 

[wrpgator]

I have no idea where this stock is going and @wrpgator may make a killing - and I hope he does - but if you are interested, the stock price has a fascinating history. Check out the price from the late 80’s

Since the 80s there have been many splits. In the last several years short interest has been high, typical of low cap bio stocks going through phased trials lasting years. The Reddit anti-short effort a few years ago caused a spike. Lots of illegal naked shorting going on while the SEC looks the other way ($$). Successful ph 3 trial concluded showing significant survival benefit over the existing standard of care for head & neck cancers—with no side effects—no side effects! The potential for treating other cancers has been suggested but they need a revenue stream to fund more research. This can only come after approval. FDA tends to dither but it has been designated “orphan drug” status, and their manufacturing plant had been completed. Yes, I hope to make money on this. But after hearing the “C” diagnosis twice myself, I’m really looking for a breakthrough utilizing one’s own immune system to fight cancer, in lieu of killing the immune system with chemo.
Hope you have a chance to read the letter from the CEO I posted above.
A short-squeeze may be developing. Yesterday CVM opened at $1.56, now close to a buck ninety on good volume.

 

[Gator By Marriage]

Since the 80s there have been many splits. In the last several years short interest has been high, typical of low cap bio stocks going through phased trials lasting years. The Reddit anti-short effort a few years ago caused a spike. Lots of illegal naked shorting going on while the SEC looks the other way ($$). Successful ph 3 trial concluded showing significant survival benefit over the existing standard of care for head & neck cancers—with no side effects—no side effects! The potential for treating other cancers has been suggested but they need a revenue stream to fund more research. This can only come after approval. FDA tends to dither but it has been designated “orphan drug” status, and their manufacturing plant had been completed. Yes, I hope to make money on this. But after hearing the “C” diagnosis twice myself, I’m really looking for a breakthrough utilizing one’s own immune system to fight cancer, in lieu of killing the immune system with chemo.
Hope you have a chance to read the letter from the CEO I posted above.
A short-squeeze may be developing. Yesterday CVM opened at $1.56, now close to a buck ninety on good volume.

I was serious when I said I hope you make a killing. I really meant that. If they really have made a breakthrough on a cancer drug - any cancer - that’s awesome news. Cancer killed my mother, my BIL, and my father died with it, not of it, so like many here it’s personal for me. Nonetheless, even with splits, that stock’s prices have had amazing highs and lows.