I just spent 30 minutes catching up on all of this (had a deposition in Florida on Wednesday and have been completely out of the loop).
After watching Mullen's first 3 classes, I think you've hit on something: yes, he wants the top kids just like Clemson, Alabama, UGA, Ohio State and all of the other big boys....he makes a pitch, and so far has missed on most of the superstars. He's landed a few solid/high 4-stars (such as Dexter, Wingo, Copeland, Gouraige, EJ, and a few others). Where he needs to improve is hitting on the Plan B's & C's. Last year we only signed 1 DT - he should have had a couple of Plan B's waiting in the wings. This year: WR & RB. I'd much rather land a DT (in 2019) that needed a year or two to develop than completely whiffing. I'd rather see us take a 3-star UCF WR than whiff. I think that's fine with 2 or 3 of your takes in a 22+ member class - now if he was doing that with 8-10 kids it would be a problem. I'll give him a pass on year 1, but year 2 & 3 we've seen big gaps at certain positions.
The good thing is next year there are only a couple of big "needs" (WR & RB). It will be the first time in a long while that we can take a balanced class vs. loading up at certain positions.