Here's a good free article on the FSU 247 site by Bud Elliot - he also excludes IMG kids not from Florida:
More than half of Florida's top recruits are again leaving state
More than half of Florida's top recruits are again leaving state
(some highlights from the article):
For the class of 2021, the IMG Academy players excluded from the analysis are (along with their home state): J.J. McCarthy (Illinois),
Greg Crippen (Massachusetts),
Lovasea Carroll (Georgia),
Malik McClain (Alabama), and
JC Latham (Wisconsin). Removing those five means the state has 52 four- and five-star players who are from Florida.
A rolling four-year average also provides an interesting look.
2005-08: 60% of Florida blue-chips stayed in-state.
2009-12: 52%
2013-16: 47%
2017-20: 47%
It has been even more drastic for top-100 players leaving the state. For four classes running, top-100 players from Florida have left the state more often than they have stayed home.
Again, a rolling four-year average also provides an interesting look.
2005-08: 66% of Florida top-100 recruits stayed in-state.
2009-12: 58%
2013-16: 56%
2017-20: 44%
There is some reason to believe that this is related to all three in-state schools making coaching changes in that span, while out-of-state schools have been more stable. While Florida has had three excellent years so far under
Dan Mullen, the program was largely irrelevant since current recruits reached middle school. Florida State has been on a steady decline since winning the national championship in 2013. And Miami joined the ACC in 2004 and has not sniffed a conference crown in the 16 seasons since.
The trend exists for a reason. Out-of-state programs like Alabama, Georgia, LSU, and Clemson have been better than the Florida schools over the last half-decade to a decade.
But things do look to be moving in the right direction for Florida and Miami, at least.
CLASS OF 2021
So who did the best job recruiting the state of Florida so far in 2021? Did the in-state schools do a better job of keeping the best players in-state? Of the 52 four- and five-stars in the 247Sports Composite from Florida, 48 are committed or have signed.
And of those 48, only 20 are going to in-state schools. This is one of the lowest percentages in recent memory, and a concern for the teams in the state of Florida. Here is the breakdown by school.
- 11 Miami
- 6 Florida
- 5 Alabama
- 3 Clemson
- 3 Mississippi
- 3 Florida State
- 2 LSU
- 2 Auburn
- 2 Texas A&M
- 2 Notre Dame
- 1 UGA
- 1 Oklahoma
- 1 Maryland
- 1 USC
- 1 Michigan
- 1 Arizona State
- 1 Arkansas
- 1 Georgia Tech
Miami is the top Florida recruiter
Miami clearly made a big jump in in-state recruiting in 2021. The main reason for this is the relationships coach
Manny Diaz and his staff have made with local prospects over the years, as well as the improved play from the Hurricanes on the field. But the Hurricanes also benefitted from the recruiting lockdown, in that local prospects were unable to take paid visits to schools throughout the nation, but could go visit the Miami campus, even
if they could not meet with coaches in-person. Signing 11 four- and five-star prospects from Florida is almost as much as its last two hauls combined (13).
Florida was good, but fans want more
The Florida Gators signed five four- and five-stars from the state and have an additional player committed who has yet to sign. Five-star cornerback
Jason Marshall is a special player. Four-stars like defensive linemen
Tyreak Sapp, safety
Corey Collier, receiver
Marcus Burke, and tight end
Gage Wilcox could also be difference makers. The Gators beat out Alabama for Marshall and Sapp.
But Florida fans want more.
Dan Mullen has been the most successful head coach hired in the Early Signing Period era (other than internal promotions like
Ryan Day and
Lincoln Riley). He's done an excellent job on the field and a good job on the recruiting trail. But Florida fans are frustrated over landing just two of the state's 14 four-star wide receivers, and none of the top eight receivers from Florida in the 247Sports Composite, especially following such a good year throwing the football on the field.
Florida fans are also frustrated over losses like linebacker
Xavian Sorey to Georgia and
Keanu Koht to Alabama.
Florida could end up with four-star safety
Terrion Arnold when he makes his pick next month, but the Gators are just a few elite players short of dominating the state.
