2022 NCAA Pick 'Em Thread: Thanks for playing!

[NOLAGATOR]

 

[NVGator]

Why not -100?

 

[TN G8tr]

Holy Shyt. What a thread from yesterday. Damn gang, football season is here. Have a drink, get laid, and make some picks. Rules are rules.

This is gonna be good.

 

[NOLAGATOR]

Holy Shyt. What a thread from yesterday. Damn gang, football season is here. Have a drink, get laid, and make some picks. Rules are rules.

This is gonna be good.

You can get away with that...it's your......

 

[TaterGator]

Vegas spreads have zero to do with how they think the game will turn out. It only has to do with how they think people will bet. They have to try to get even money on both sides.

 

[NOLAGATOR]

Vegas spreads have zero to do with how they think the game will turn out. It only has to do with how they think people will bet. They have to try to get even money on both sides.

So if 75% of the betters pick Bama to beat UGA...explain a spread of -6.5 for Bama?

The spread DOES reflect actual probability.

 

[TaterGator]

So if 75% of the betters pick Bama to beat UGA...explain a spread of -6.5 for Bama?

The spread DOES reflect actual probability.

If 75% of people pick Bama at - 6.5 then they move it to 7 or 7.5 to even out the money genius. Why else would they move the line? You think they suddenly started believing the score would be different? Think math, money, business. Not football.

 

[TaterGator]

So if 75% of the betters pick Bama to beat UGA...explain a spread of -6.5 for Bama?

The spread DOES reflect actual probability.

 

[oxrageous]

The point of the spread (at least in this Pick 'Em) is to try and make every single game a toss-up. Simple as that.

 

[NOLAGATOR]

No worries...but if people still choose differently...so be it especially this early on. It rarely finishes as most predict.

 

[NVGator]

Vegas spreads have zero to do with how they think the game will turn out. It only has to do with how they think people will bet. They have to try to get even money on both sides.

Vegas spreads have EVERYTHING to do with what they think the scoring outcome will be. Why TF do you think they have an O/U? Total points?

Yes, their job is to place a line to get even money on both sides but they miss, a lot.

 

[neteng]

Im so scared to ask this but Im confused and Im not on hard drugs. I even went back, read the rules and Im still confused on a couple things. I preface the next few questions that I have with the following statements:

I do not want my money back, Im excited about this contest and I dont really care at all where the spread is coming from since we all are picking with it.

Question 1
-Are we picking against the spread or are we picking for just the W or L?

Question 2
-Is the spread changing up to game time or is it set once the week opens up for picks?

 

[NVGator]

Im so scared to ask this but Im confused and Im not on hard drugs. I even went back, read the rules and Im still confused on a couple things. I preface the next few questions that I have with the following statements:

I do not want my money back, Im excited about this contest and I dont really care at all where the spread is coming from since we all are picking with it.

Question 1
-Are we picking against the spread or are we picking for just the W or L?

Question 2
-Is the spread changing up to game time or is it set once the week opens up for picks?

1. You are picking with the spread. Ox sometimes embellishes on them.

2. Once the spread is set, it’s set. It doesn’t change.

 

[Pablos Tunnel]

An example of a wasted pick this week is FSU/LSU. So far, 100% of everyone has taken LSU, and that annoys me. This is the case even with me doubling the spread to LSU -6.5. The real line is LSU -3. This is an example where I should have made it LSU -14.5 or the like.

I object to your manipulation of the open market spreads to satisfy your desire to redistribute wealth within the message board economy.

 

[Pablos Tunnel]

1. You are picking with the spread. Ox sometimes embellishes on them.

Embellishes!

 

[oxrageous]

Embellishes!

You also looking for a refund?

 

[MJMGator]

 

[TaterGator]

Vegas spreads have EVERYTHING to do with what they think the scoring outcome will be. Why TF do you think they have an O/U? Total points?

Yes, their job is to place a line to get even money on both sides but they miss, a lot.

Gee, let me think... Why would they have an over under? Maybe cause people will bet on it so they can make money. How is that any different? Again, they don't gaf what the actual point total will be, only getting even money on each side of the bet.

 

[NVGator]

Gee, let me think... Why would they have an over under? Maybe cause people will bet on it so they can make money. How is that any different? Again, they don't gaf what the actual point total will be, only getting even money on each side of the bet.

Do you have any idea how accurate the point spread actually is historically? Vegas cares very much about it. You clearly don’t have a clue.

 

[neteng]

Maybe yall are both right and this is a like a left vs right twix commercial? The odds follow the betting and the betting follows the odds. The betting lines open up and then they start to change based on the betting until there is enough data to converge. I dunno, just throwing it out there...