- Sep 8, 2014
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TBLT? I get some 60 cent equity? Is that it or do you mean TLT or TBT which are Treasury ETF's?
TBLT, toughbuilt industries.
TBLT? I get some 60 cent equity? Is that it or do you mean TLT or TBT which are Treasury ETF's?
TBLT, toughbuilt industries.
Okay, but why is it a 65 cent stock in the construction business when SWK, MAS, WHR, HD, LOW, and many others are blowing up? Is it b/c they had slowing sales of their Kneepads b/c hookers were out of work during the KUNG FLU?
Dollar down, crude way up, 10 yr way up... all bullish for MARKETS... stop saying "economy!" I fear the "economy" is no where near as good as you think, but the market is. ;)Holy smokes....looks like hydroxy chloroquine works on the China flu and the economy....
I don't believe the economy is as bad as some might want us to believe ...yes we were shutdown but people had cash in their pockets from the last 2.5-3 years....call it rose colored glasses but when I hear things like boat/RV/swimming pool sales and such are at all time highs I'm not buying doom and gloom. I was in the recreational business(boat sales) from 2004-2010 and when late 2006-2007 hit it was literally like someone turned the lights off. Refi's and home sales just stopped, home improvement stopped, new car sales stopped....everything just stopped. It didn't take 8 months either, it was virtually overnight.Dollar down, crude way up, 10 yr way up... all bullish for MARKETS... stop saying "economy!" I fear the "economy" is no where near as good as you think, but the market is. ;)
Oh I get it, and I'm with ya.... but everything you listed is "debt," and yes, "debt" is being issued at EVERY level like never before, I mean never, not even close.I don't believe the economy is as bad as some might want us to believe ...yes we were shutdown but people had cash in their pockets from the last 2.5-3 years....call it rose colored glasses but when I hear things like boat/RV/swimming pool sales and such are at all time highs I'm not buying doom and gloom. I was in the recreational business(boat sales) from 2004-2010 and when late 2006-2007 hit it was literally like someone turned the lights off. Refi's and home sales just stopped, home improvement stopped, new car sales stopped....everything just stopped. It didn't take 8 months either, it was virtually overnight.
People are still spending money and consumer confidence was at a yearly high the other day...we'll know the outcome going forward on Nov.4th until then watch the newsfeed on your browser.
Trump pledges 'biggest tax cut ever' if he wins election in November
I have no doubts we will come tumbling down but I need a few more years to position myself better for the fall. There are 3 different types of people in a true sustained recession/depression. The sinkers, the swimmers, and the salvagers.Oh I get it, and I'm with ya.... but everything you listed is "debt," and yes, "debt" is being issued at EVERY level like never before, I mean never, not even close.
You know what else is subtle and I haven't seen like this since 2004-5? "Checks" attached to my credit card statements to buy schit... HELOC type ads in the mail.... I haven't seen credit card checks in literally 10 years.
I don't believe the economy is as bad as some might want us to believe
Dollar down, crude way up, 10 yr way up... all bullish for MARKETS... stop saying "economy!" I fear the "economy" is no where near as good as you think, but the market is. ;)
One danger is that the real unemployment number is much lower than the government number because many not seeking jobs are still calculated in... no one wants to work because of the Federal tack-on to unemployment proceeds over the summer. Many getting $875/week to do nothing, often more than 2x what they made while working. Just anecdotal but I'm seeing clients struggling to find unskilled/semi-skilled labor or office support even at $15-17 with comprehensive benefits.
You'd think the problem will right itself eventually if no changes to the social safety net... they'll have no choice. But so far it hasn't happened.
I bought the dip... we'll see how that goes!
I bought the dip... we'll see how that goes!
No change to this update going into today and Friday. Support is 3360 right now for potential push up into 3450-3500 range.I meant to post my update last night, but here is now (again, based on SP500):
- dollar down, crude way up, 10 yr way up = market bullish.
- Dow Transports still in upward trend channel. Support is still 11080. No sign of bearishness yet.
- R2000 on the weekly chart has a bullish pattern looking like it put in a bottom.
- NASDAQ is not showing a bottom, but that's the only down note right now.
- We are still in a bit of a gray area on my "skinny/shallow" vs. "moderate" retracement scenarios.
- It is increasingly looking like we got the "shallow" retracement (not what I was hoping for) to the 3236 level.
- That 3236 is now key support for SP500. It is a "Dow Theory Sell Signal" and another key support metric.
- As long as we remain above 3236, we are still bullish and will likely slowly push up to 35-3600 and new highs.
- If we close below 3236, we likely get the "moderate" scenario. I think the "deep" scenario is irrelevant unless we do get the "moderate" first.
- We're still in an uncertain phase... with either the "shallow" or "moderate" scenarios, I see us pushing up to 3500 range, then pulling back a bit... that is where we will get confirmation on "skinny" vs "moderate," because that pullback will either then bounce back up and keep climbing (skinny) or fall further to around 3050 level (moderate).
- I'm still wary, and yes, feel like I'm "missing out" a bit, but I haven't lost any money in this either.. trade at your own risk! ;)
It's working ok so far... added UCO yesterday when oil was lagging the market. As for Dems, yes, Wall Street wants them more than Trump for the reasons you state. I said in one of my updates months ago that like it or not, Biden is actually better for the MARKETS than Trump because there is no question that there would be more debt than "merely" Trump level debt. ;)Well done, for now, LOL. Perhaps keep those stops tight just in case Prez Tweeter decides against even targeted Stimulate Me Money which has this market up, today at least? Funny thing I heard 2 days ago about the idea of the DUMS sweeping in Nov. would all but guarantee a HUGE spending bill, upwards of 10 TRILLION, had the markets up on that day. That might be the beginning of the end. Awesome for markets short term, but that would stoke the inflation that has been missing from the FED's purview.