Anybody taking advantage of Coronavirus?

[Detroitgator]

So I am thinking about the thread title and it was valid, but ever since about 3 weeks ago and the FED stepped in to calm the credit markets, I am not getting many opportunities to take advantage anymore. Since the credit markets have calmed and all the preferreds have rallied and the interest rates have been stable, the volatility has just slowed to a crawl in the stock market. Anyone finding anything out there? Perhaps we will have to wait until after all the businesses run thru their grant money and then the real layoffs start late in the year and the unemployment readings will be more reliable.Unemployment will never be 3.5% again but 20+% or whatever it is now is also not realistic.

Not sure your timeframe or how you would play them, but if you look at the actual holdings in XLE (the producers, like CVX, XOM...) they have NOT taken the beating that Oil itself did, in fact, they've risen. I'm watching for their price to hit their 50 SMA (almost there) and then there might be something solid to them. I did get a "highly speculative" (as opposed to "early buy" or "trade!") alert the other day for MRO.

 

[FireFoley]

Not sure your timeframe or how you would play them, but if you look at the actual holdings in XLE (the producers, like CVX, XOM...) they have NOT taken the beating that Oil itself did, in fact, they've risen. I'm watching for their price to hit their 50 SMA (almost there) and then there might be something solid to them. I did get a "highly speculative" (as opposed to "early buy" or "trade!") alert the other day for MRO.

You are not wrong but those stocks bottomed out long before the BS that just went on in oil. CVX traded below 60 and rallied 30 bux/share. XOM traded sub 30 and rallied 15+bux. Sure they might eventually go up another 30 or so dollars, but I was more referring to the intraday moves seemed to slowed to a crawl. When I have my trading hat on, sure I am okay with breakouts and breakdowns, but for longer term. I shy away from confirmation b/c by doing that I would have missed KO at sub 40, missed CVX, missed JPM sub 80. Bit your mention of the XLE is worth taking note b/c even yesterday with crude getting smacked again, many of the big integrated and E&P co.'s went up. I did notice that KMI had earnings tonite. Not great, not bad. But it will be interesting to see how these pipelines report. many of them are MLP's and are over owned by income seekers because of their high payouts. But their stock prices are down way way way more than the dividend payout.

 

[BMF]

Speaking of the need to prop up oil...

Most people don't know, but the "Navy" ships that the Iranians keep f*cking with are a part of what's called "Patrol Forces Southwest Asia" (PATFORSWA) - it's 10 ships, 4 Navy & 6 Coast Guard cutters. This last time they 'swarmed' our ships they supposedly came with feet (like less than 10 feet, which is ridiculous) of one of the Coast Guard cutters. I did a deployment in 2005-2006 w/ PATFORSWA, doing shoreside security and port security. They were f*cking with us back then. I'm not advocating for any type of war (because it wouldn't be much of a war, except for us targeting some of their strategic military installations) - but if one of our ships does fire on them I hope to God it's a CG cutter. It'll be historic!

 

[SeabeeGator]

Most people don't know, but the "Navy" ships that the Iranians keep f*cking with are a part of what's called "Patrol Forces Southwest Asia" (PATFORSWA) - it's 10 ships, 4 Navy & 6 Coast Guard cutters. This last time they 'swarmed' our ships they supposedly came with feet (like less than 10 feet, which is ridiculous) of one of the Coast Guard cutters. I did a deployment in 2005-2006 w/ PATFORSWA, doing shoreside security and port security. They were f*cking with us back then. I'm not advocating for any type of war (because it wouldn't be much of a war, except for us targeting some of their strategic military installations) - but if one of our ships does fire on them I hope to God it's a CG cutter. It'll be historic!

I think they renamed it. Can’t remember the number exactly but I want to say CJTF 151 maybe? And I think they’ve been harassing anything that passes, which is... not smart. They were when I was there last year at least.

 

[BMF]

I think they renamed it. Can’t remember the number exactly but I want to say CJTF 151 maybe? And I think they’ve been harassing anything that passes, which is... not smart. They were when I was there last year at least.

They've been doing it for 15 years! It's gotten worse every year it seems. Their "Navy" is an absolute joke. We could probably get a bunch of us from GC here and commandeer a few bigger boats at the local marina and take out the Iranian 'navy'!

 

[bradgator2]

So I had some United Technologies before their merger with Raytheon. One of the spin offs from the merger was CARR... as in Carrier the AC company. So I was automatically given some. (The other one is the elevator company OTIS)

Of course I get news articles on anything in the portfolio. There are some pretty flashy articles about CARR. A Barrons article is even calling it a once in a generation opportunity. My eyes gloss over real quick when some of these articles quickly start going over my head. Anyway... any opinions on it?

no opinions? That cant be. Not with all the ass holes in here

Up 16% since I made this post

(the Angels Envy might have me made post this)

 

[FireFoley]

no opinions? That cant be. Not with all the ass holes in here

Up 16% since I made this post

(the Angels Envy might have me made post this)

16%? Is that a Victory Lap or a Cackle?

Nicely done. Isn't Carrier the company that was moving to Mexico until prez Tweeter came in and gave them a bunch of tax breaks? But I don;t know much about them other than they do A/C's. I am sure they do more. As far as Otis. well are people going to get into crowded elevators anymore? But I must say when I hear Otis, I can only think of one thing. Saw them at the Bandshell in the mid 80's

 

[bradgator2]

16%? Is that a Victory Lap or a Cackle?

Nicely done. Isn't Carrier the company that was moving to Mexico until prez Tweeter came in and gave them a bunch of tax breaks? But I don;t know much about them other than they do A/C's. I am sure they do more. As far as Otis. well are people going to get into crowded elevators anymore? But I must say when I hear Otis, I can only think of one thing. Saw them at the Bandshell in the mid 80's

That rings a bell now that you mention it. It’s never something I would have looked at before it magically appeared in my account.

 

[Detroitgator]

Oil... is schitting the bed... Lying about a deal between Russia and KSA failed, mini, likely coordinated "false flag" crisis with Iran failed...

But they are working overtime to prop up the 10 yr right now...

 

[FireFoley]

Well as we talked about earlier, even tho oil dumped again today, the oil stocks went higher. Sure a day or 2 does not a trend make, and I just checked today's action and it was a complete dash for trash. All the stuff that has been complete dog dykk was up today and a lot. Perhaps this is just a one or two day thing, or maybe there is a shift back to retail, chemicals, oil, etc. I kind of doubt it. Probably won;t be long, but those 5 stocks that make up 21% of the S&P 500 all report earnings this week. They took a breather today and might all week, but will be interesting to see how these 5 do starting next week. I would not be opposed to the "garbage stocks" taking the lead for a while. I own my share of them and sure I love the dividends, but it would be nice to have them go higher on occasion, LOL

 

[Detroitgator]

Well as we talked about earlier, even tho oil dumped again today, the oil stocks went higher. Sure a day or 2 does not a trend make, and I just checked today's action and it was a complete dash for trash. All the stuff that has been complete dog dykk was up today and a lot. Perhaps this is just a one or two day thing, or maybe there is a shift back to retail, chemicals, oil, etc. I kind of doubt it. Probably won;t be long, but those 5 stocks that make up 21% of the S&P 500 all report earnings this week. They took a breather today and might all week, but will be interesting to see how these 5 do starting next week. I would not be opposed to the "garbage stocks" taking the lead for a while. I own my share of them and sure I love the dividends, but it would be nice to have them go higher on occasion, LOL

Much like with each unemployment report, the Fed will take care of earnings reports no matter what they are... market up!

As for oil, I'm with ya, but there is zero demand and abundance of supply (with storage space running out). Again, the "market is not the economy" thing. And again, yes, energy sector is now under the umbrella of the Fed... their stocks will be fine, even if there is no market for their commodity... total disconnect.

This all goes back to what I said at the outset, "The Fed is buying everything and will own entire sectors." That's what is happening... doesn't matter what the ECONOMY is doing, or what actual oil is doing, it is all market BULLISH as long as the Fed is pumping.

10 yr also up, bullish.

Also, Fed speaks Thursday... QE to infinity... bullish.

None of it connected to reality, but reality nonetheless...

Ya trade the market in front of you, not what ya think. :)

 

[bradgator2]

So, here are my purchases since March:
DIS +20%
JBLU +12%
CARR +26%
CCL +38%
RCL +9% (luckily bought more at a lower price)
BA +45%
AXP + 30%
XOM +15%
RTX +17%
AAL +11%
CIT +18%

No losers so far.... a long way to go though. All of those are normal brokerage account. My 401k is currently "only" down 3.8% YTD and still positive 3.2% for last 12 months.

 

[FireFoley]

So, here are my purchases since March:
DIS +20%
JBLU +12%
CARR +26%
CCL +38%
RCL +9% (luckily bought more at a lower price)
BA +45%
AXP + 30%
XOM +15%
RTX +17%
AAL +11%
CIT +18%

No losers so far.... a long way to go though. All of those are normal brokerage account. My 401k is currently "only" down 3.8% YTD and still positive 3.2% for last 12 months.

Another Victory lap!!!

 

[bradgator2]

Another Victory lap!!!

I'm game for a little more. Any recommendations? I never would have considered half of those before covid. Obviously DIS, BA, XOM, AXP, RTX are big dogs that I could finally afford at a discounted price. I was thinking about a defense ETF. Either XAR or PPA

 

[FireFoley]

I'm game for a little more. Any recommendations? I never would have considered half of those before covid. Obviously DIS, BA, XOM, AXP, RTX are big dogs that I could finally afford at a discounted price. I was thinking about a defense ETF. Either XAR or PPA

Just breaking your BALLZ. Victory Laps are sometimes followed by body bags, LOL

Why an ETF? You already have RTX. Why pay a fee when you can buy a stock for nothing and not pay some silly fee? You can pick one you might like whether its more RTX, LMT, NOC, GD. the less money you give the machines, the more goes into your pocket.

I am not buying anything here really. I think the market is way way ahead of the numbers, but as @Detroitgator keeps saying, the FED is there to make sure the drops are shallow. Vaccine, no vaccine, theraputic, no theraputic the virus is here to stay. I think the next challenge will be 12 months or more from now when all the free money is gone whether thru unemployment or mortgage forbearance, it will be interesting how many of the 20-30 plus millions that got furloughed actually go back to work. That will be the real truth.

 

[bradgator2]

Just breaking your BALLZ. Victory Laps are sometimes followed by body bags, LOL

Why an ETF? You already have RTX. Why pay a fee when you can buy a stock for nothing and not pay some silly fee? You can pick one you might like whether its more RTX, LMT, NOC, GD. the less money you give the machines, the more goes into your pocket.

I am not buying anything here really. I think the market is way way ahead of the numbers, but as @Detroitgator keeps saying, the FED is there to make sure the drops are shallow. Vaccine, no vaccine, theraputic, no theraputic the virus is here to stay. I think the next challenge will be 12 months or more from now when all the free money is gone whether thru unemployment or mortgage forbearance, it will be interesting how many of the 20-30 plus millions that got furloughed actually go back to work. That will be the real truth.

in these times, I’ll take every lap I can get. Just hope I am standing at the end of the marathon.

 

[Detroitgator]

Still bullish, nothing's changed

 

[URGatorBait]

My IRA is up YTD

 

[FireFoley]

Still bullish, nothing's changed

Well just as I predicted the dash for trash came to a screeching halt and Goog, MSFT, and FB were off to the races again today before the overall market hit them a bit. After the close both AMZN and Apple reported so so in my opinion, so they are down in the after market. I presume that won;t last thru the entire day Friday.

 

[Zambo]

My IRA is up YTD

Impressive. Is that on rate of return, or just the balance after contributions? My 401k performance is about -8.5% or so YTD.