Anybody taking advantage of Coronavirus?

[URGatorBait]

Impressive. Is that on rate of return, or just the balance after contributions? My 401k performance is about -8.5% or so YTD.

Just the balance.
Unfortunately with building this business with my buddy, I haven't been able to put very much away. Hopefully we are now getting close enough that he can start paying me more and I can start putting away a good amount again, because up to this point I've added virtually nothing since I rolled my 401k from my last employer to the current IRA.
In that time though (3 years) My IRA has grown by about 60% at it's peak and went up a nice chunk in Jan.
So while I am still off about 12% from it's peak this year I'm still technically up on the year lol

I guess I need to just suck it up and make a better effort of just putting small amounts in there religiously so I can catch more as it increases over time.

 

[BMF]

Just the balance.
Unfortunately with building this business with my buddy, I haven't been able to put very much away. Hopefully we are now getting close enough that he can start paying me more and I can start putting away a good amount again, because up to this point I've added virtually nothing since I rolled my 401k from my last employer to the current IRA.
In that time though (3 years) My IRA has grown by about 60% at it's peak and went up a nice chunk in Jan.
So while I am still off about 12% from it's peak this year I'm still technically up on the year lol

I guess I need to just suck it up and make a better effort of just putting small amounts in there religiously so I can catch more as it increases over time.

Nice work. Agree about making an effort to put more in now....this is the "buy low" (prior to the "sell high) period. My work 401k (TSP/military 401k) is maxed out, so I changed up my contributions from less conservative to more aggressive (to buy more of the stock funds while the market is down). I also upped my non-retirement contributions (and moved some cash over to my brokerage to buy some stocks while they're down). Now I'm just keeping my fingers crossed!

 

[URGatorBait]

Nice work. Agree about making an effort to put more in now....this is the "buy low" (prior to the "sell high) period. My work 401k (TSP/military 401k) is maxed out, so I changed up my contributions from less conservative to more aggressive (to buy more of the stock funds while the market is down). I also upped my non-retirement contributions (and moved some cash over to my brokerage to buy some stocks while they're down). Now I'm just keeping my fingers crossed!

Yea my positions are all on the aggressive side but to varying degrees.

 

[BMF]

Airlines take a beating today, most are down 8-12%. Buffet sold all of his airline shares.

 

[FireFoley]

Airlines take a beating today, most are down 8-12%. Buffet sold all of his airline shares.

Just goes to show you that not even the Oracle or his minions are always correct. With the size positions they establish in the names they buy, they have access to the CEO's 24/7, yet they have loser's also. Look Buffet has been ultra successful but recently the airlines, his WFC position and that nightmare Kraft Heinz deal have made him look almost human.

 

[FireFoley]

It would be VERY tempting to short the June Crude e-mini contracts, which are $21.50/barrel as I type this. The minis contracts are 500 barrels, so each $0.025 tick is $12.50. I doubt June contracts, which close May 18th, will close above $15, if that (I'm thinking $12 is most likely) due to it taking time to work through the oversupply. That works out to profit potential of over $3000 per contract. The likelihood of it swinging far in the other direction, and closing above the current $21.50/barrel price seems quite low.

I'd be tempted if I hadn't sworn off of commodities futures a few years ago, after making a few costly mistakes.

So on April 20th you proposed this trade and literally the next day, June Crude futures dropped like 8/bux a barrel. You were Dead on Ballz accurate. But lets say you thought they were going negative just like the May contract did, and did not cover and decided to let it go. Well today is May 4th and the June Crude contract settled around $21/barrel. Yes you were correct, but as we talked about just when everyone thinks something is going to happen, BOOM they fvkk you at the drive thru. so now what? 2 weeks before expiration and Crude is exactly where it was 2 weeks ago?

 

[no1g8r]

So on April 20th you proposed this trade and literally the next day, June Crude futures dropped like 8/bux a barrel. You were Dead on Ballz accurate. But lets say you thought they were going negative just like the May contract did, and did not cover and decided to let it go. Well today is May 4th and the June Crude contract settled around $21/barrel. Yes you were correct, but as we talked about just when everyone thinks something is going to happen, BOOM they fvkk you at the drive thru. so now what? 2 weeks before expiration and Crude is exactly where it was 2 weeks ago?

I would have taken profits at $12, for a $3k+ gain per contract, as I identified before. But if I had not, I would continue holding them closer to expiration. The May contracts plunged a few days ahead of expiration, briefly going negative. I don’t think we are a lot better off this time, but would probably still target around $12-$14.

 

[Detroitgator]

I would have taken profits at $12, for a $3k+ gain per contract, as I identified before. But if I had not, I would continue holding them closer to expiration. The May contracts plunged a few days ahead of expiration, briefly going negative. I don’t think we are a lot better off this time, but would probably still target around $12-$14.

Then actually do it this time, let us know what you actually do and when you actually get out, include a couple of screen shots of the realized gains, and let's compare it to the theoretical. ;)

 

[no1g8r]

Then actually do it this time, let us know what you actually do and when you actually get out, include a couple of screen shots of the realized gains, and let's compare it to the theoretical. ;)

Thanks, but no thanks.

 

[BMF]

Oil is up to $24 today. How???

 

[URGatorBait]

Oil is up to $24 today. How???

Economy is back baby

 

[no1g8r]

Oil is up to $24 today. How???

Everybody thinking that the state re-openings are going to drive up demand a lot. And it will, but there is still the problem of over-supply right now, even with the OPEC reductions. The problem right now is that there are just is not enough room to store it, so as the June contract expiration date (19 May) gets closer, I think we'll see it go down a bit as folks unload contracts to avoid having to take possession of physical oil, with no place to put it. But if funding is approved to top off the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, that could take care of a lot of the storage problem, and help prop up the prices. They had to cancel an order for 77 million barrels in early April because $3 billion in funding wasn't included in the $2 trillion stimulus package. So the government has hinted at leasing out some of their storage space to companies needing a place to store it. That would also help keep oil prices up.

 

[FireFoley]

Commodity futures can be very dangerous trading instruments. Sure production is way down all over the world, including the US, so that helps. Perhaps demand is picking up a bit. but as noted there is no shortage of supply. But take it from someone who spent a lot of time on the commodities exchange, sometimes they know how people are positioned and they will put you thru the ringer until you can;t take it anymore. Not saying that is happening, but part of this has to be a short squeeze.

On that note, we talked a little last week how there was about 2 days of the "dash for trash" stocks, etc. Well that is over. The same 5 stocks plus a few others are the ones that are going up again.

 

[FireFoley]

I did not know where to put this post as I am just musing, but as the day wore on not even the 5-10 stocks that go up everyday could stay green and it dragged the Nasdaq lower for the first time in a week. Well I look around and I am starting to see potential areas that I would like to get involved. Coke sub 40, Verizon sub 50, ABBV sub 80, AEP sub 70 and there are more. Sure these are boring stocks but they would all be 5+% dividends at those prices and able to sleep at night stocks needing no money from any government. Sure I am older so this enters my thinking.

Also entering my thinking are bank stocks. They are flush with money this time around, yet they are going to get pressure from the politicians to cut their dividends. Sure that would be a downer but they would have so much money lying around if they did that on top of their already stopped buybacks and not loaning any money out, can you say TAKEOVERS??? WFC has got issues, but they also got a stock price 60% lower than where it was. USB is by far the safest and most conservative regional bank in the country with ZERO overseas exposure. Take a look at that stock. If I was JPM I would buy both WFC and USB and just write a fvkking check. What are the idiots in Washington going to say, NO? Not a chance with all the shyt going on. Already a rumor that PNC just raised a lot of money by disposing their stake in Blackrock to possibly make an acqusition, perhaps a conservatve regioanl bank......?

 

[FireFoley]

LOL, in the above post I mention the banks, not as in pounding the table buy them, but just as maybe consolidation. Well today is bank day on the markets. Near 2pm, JPM up 4.5%, Wells up 8%, BofA up6%, USB up5.5%, and so on. I give it the rest of the day and maybe 2 hours tomorrow and they will return to shyt. LOL

 

[FireFoley]

I would have taken profits at $12, for a $3k+ gain per contract, as I identified before. But if I had not, I would continue holding them closer to expiration. The May contracts plunged a few days ahead of expiration, briefly going negative. I don’t think we are a lot better off this time, but would probably still target around $12-$14.

So today is May 14th and June Crude Futures just broke above $27/barrel. Settlement and last day of trading is Tuesday May 19th, so already it is not the most active contract. So what now? Are they going to squeeze the remaining shorts the next 3 days and carry them out in body bags or are we going to have a flush similar to last month, but clearly not below zero?

 

[Detroitgator]

LOL, in the above post I mention the banks, not as in pounding the table buy them, but just as maybe consolidation. Well today is bank day on the markets. Near 2pm, JPM up 4.5%, Wells up 8%, BofA up6%, USB up5.5%, and so on. I give it the rest of the day and maybe 2 hours tomorrow and they will return to shyt. LOL

Well, I'm betting on the "melt up", so yesterday afternoon, I stuck my toe in the water with the FANG's and JPM. Will add more to all on next pull back. And I'm not doing this long term hold, just into what I think will be a melt up. I also bought 2 more bitcoins yesterday.

 

[no1g8r]

So today is May 14th and June Crude Futures just broke above $27/barrel. Settlement and last day of trading is Tuesday May 19th, so already it is not the most active contract. So what now? Are they going to squeeze the remaining shorts the next 3 days and carry them out in body bags or are we going to have a flush similar to last month, but clearly not below zero?

Well, the CFTC issued an advisory yesterday that shows that they believe the possibility is there:

"The Divisions of Market Oversight (DMO), Swap Dealer and Intermediary Oversight (DSIO), and Clearing and Risk (DCR) (collectively, the Divisions) issue this advisory to remind DCMs, FCMs, and DCOs that they are expected to prepare for the possibility that certain contracts may continue to experience extreme market volatility, low liquidity and possibly negative pricing."
​

But they also did quite a few things to try to keep a repeat of the scenario from happening, including compelling USO to exit their June contracts a couple of weeks ago and to roll into July, August, and September contracts. I've been getting notices in my trading accounts that no new June contracts could be initiated, only the closing of existing positions.

With that said, there is still a fair bit of open interest, about 135,000 contracts, and about 3.300 in the e-minis. So there is still potential for the June contracts to plunge, depending a lot on the availability of storage space in Cushing. Projections as of April 17th were that with the buildup at that time of 5 million barrels per week, that Cushing's storage would be 100% filled by mid-May. We know that the buildup has slowed some over the past 3 weeks, so they will be in the red zone, but not likely at full capacity (but they weren't at full capacity in April, either, the available capacity was already committed).

So back when I said that I would be tempted to short the June e-mini contracts, trading was at $21.50. Had I done that and I had to exit the contracts right now, I'd be down around $2600 per contract. If I had them now I wouldn't exit them today, I'd hang on until at least tomorrow, if not Monday. I would like to think I would have exited them long before now, when there was good money to be made for someone not getting too greedy, or at least when they swung back against my original thinking and I was heading into the red.

There's a reason why I don't trade commodities these days. A little market intervention can easily turn a high confidence trade into a loser.

 

[FireFoley]

Well, the CFTC issued an advisory yesterday that shows that they believe the possibility is there:

"The Divisions of Market Oversight (DMO), Swap Dealer and Intermediary Oversight (DSIO), and Clearing and Risk (DCR) (collectively, the Divisions) issue this advisory to remind DCMs, FCMs, and DCOs that they are expected to prepare for the possibility that certain contracts may continue to experience extreme market volatility, low liquidity and possibly negative pricing."
​

But they also did quite a few things to try to keep a repeat of the scenario from happening, including compelling USO to exit their June contracts a couple of weeks ago and to roll into July, August, and September contracts. I've been getting notices in my trading accounts that no new June contracts could be initiated, only the closing of existing positions.

With that said, there is still a fair bit of open interest, about 135,000 contracts, and about 3.300 in the e-minis. So there is still potential for the June contracts to plunge, depending a lot on the availability of storage space in Cushing. Projections as of April 17th were that with the buildup at that time of 5 million barrels per week, that Cushing's storage would be 100% filled by mid-May. We know that the buildup has slowed some over the past 3 weeks, so they will be in the red zone, but not likely at full capacity (but they weren't at full capacity in April, either, the available capacity was already committed).

So back when I said that I would be tempted to short the June e-mini contracts, trading was at $21.50. Had I done that and I had to exit the contracts right now, I'd be down around $2600 per contract. If I had them now I wouldn't exit them today, I'd hang on until at least tomorrow, if not Monday. I would like to think I would have exited them long before now, when there was good money to be made for someone not getting too greedy, or at least when they swung back against my original thinking and I was heading into the red.

There's a reason why I don't trade commodities these days. A little market intervention can easily turn a high confidence trade into a loser.

You were 100% correct 24 hours after your first prediction as oil tanked. And yes the USO made changes as to how they purchase futures contracts. I am just musing that maybe others were correct initially also, but got caught up with a profit and decided to press and wait for possibly negative prices? As we have talked many times in commodity futures, usually what will F**K the most amateurs is typically what happens. I was just making some conversation :)

 

[no1g8r]

You were 100% correct 24 hours after your first prediction as oil tanked. And yes the USO made changes as to how they purchase futures contracts. I am just musing that maybe others were correct initially also, but got caught up with a profit and decided to press and wait for possibly negative prices? As we have talked many times in commodity futures, usually what will F**K the most amateurs is typically what happens. I was just making some conversation :)

Same here. If we hadn’t had that conversation I likely wouldn’t have watched the action so closely. It’s been a good distraction.