Actually if you look at AU's record, the MSU game is the outlier. They scored 27 against Oregon in a game that definitely could have gone either way. In fact Oregon lead the entire game until 9 seconds left, basically the final play. They only managed 24 points at home against Tulane. They beat up on Kent State at home then won a close one at aTm where they weren't very effective in the passing or running game, but did enough and waited for Jimbo to do what Jimbo do.
The MSU game was the outlier. They finally had a game where they got the passing game clicking, but MSU's defense played embarrassingly bad in that game. It was a road game for MSU and AU jumped on them early and there was no chance to recover.
Of course the MSU game is the most recent data, and it is that blowout (against a mediocre team) that has convinced everyone how great AU is and what swung us from projected slight favorites in this game to slight underdogs, but if you take a closer look a their record it's not as impressive as it's being made out to be.
We will be the best defense they have faced, so why are we expecting them to score like they did at home against MSU rather than how they did against Oregon, aTm, and even Tulane? I say if we can score close to 30 points we should win.