Let's talk about expectations

[ThreatMatrix]

I think it's time we had a talk about expectations; historical and immediate.

Historical expectations
Because we are Florida with a great tradition in a great state and a great state for recruiting I think it's reasonable for us to expect:
1) To make it to Atlanta every year. Any year that we don't is a down year.
2) To win the f' ing game. Now realistically expecting to win every year might be a bit much so I'll go with 3 out of four.
3) By virtue of winning the SEC I expect us to make it through the playoffs. Winning the SEC and not making it to the NC game is another disappointing year. Let's call that 3 out of 4.
4) Win the NC at least half the time we appear.

I think that gives us (.75 x.75 x .5) = 28% chance of winning the NC each year or once every 4 years.

Immediate expectations
So let's talk about when we can get back to historical expectations.
Everything else being equal we have to talk about talent (i.e. recruiting). Now discounting that a good coach can win with lesser talent and visa versa let's look where we stand and how soon can we get back to even.
1) Currently (last 4 years) we've averaged ~16th (23rd, 14th, 9th, 17th)
2) Arguably our first hurdle is UGAy ~5th (6th, 9th, 3rd, 1st)
3) The next hurdle is Alabama ~3rd (2nd, 1st, 1st, 7th)

So, on talent alone, how long will it take to have a class averaged around 5th? From a numbers stand point it would take four years of 5th or better classes. A 15th ranked class this year doesn't get us any closer. It's sad to think that we use to expect top 5 classes and we're now struggling to break 15th.

Now the good news is Georgia is Georgia and we own their sorry dawg bytch asses so we should be able to get to Atlanta sooner. But winning that game is a taller order. It's going to be along haul.

 

[MJMGator]

So we’ve won 3 NCs in roughly 100 years, but we should expect to be in it no less than every 4 years?

 

[Captain Sasquatch]

This OP is weirder than the 4800 yard thread.

 

[78]

Not quite sure where you're going with this, Threat.

 

[diehardg8r]

Lets expect competent coaches, top 10 recruiting and facilities and lets not forget....the fans also should be held accountable. This BS of half the upper deck being empty is unacceptable. If i lived within 3 hours of Gville my ass and kids would be at EVERY home game. Quit making excuses and get yo azz in the stadium.

 

[GatorStud]

As we stagger out of the irrelevant wilderness, my expectation is the eye test showing we are twice as good from when the year started and a subsequent blue chip recruiting buzz rekindles. Win/Loss, I like to see us win 8. It looks like a better athlete culture of successful priorities and effort is back in the house... some personal accountability, take care of your business. If my team seems stabilized at season end instead of schizophrenic and self-absorbed... then my friends, I give DM a on Season 1. Go Gators!!

 

[AugustaGator]

We got people expecting we should beat LSU this year.

 

[78]

No one cares much about expectations when you're rebuilding. You begin looking big, big picture. Are you getting better? Are you heading in the right direction? Is there reason to feel optimistic about next season?

We're moving in the direction, decisively so, after five games. That's about all I'm ready to commit to say at this point.

 

[Durty South Swamp]

I expect to be competitive, to get highly ranked recruit classes, to be a team that is circled on everyone's schedule as a point of concern, to play hard, to play well, and to own the swamp and make the opponent dread coming there.

 

[deuce]

Fan expectations have very little to do with reality...

 

[gardnerwebbgator]

We beat LSU Saturday, we could get to 10 wins. We lose, then the 8-4 possibility seems solid.

Let's win the next two and make UGA sweat about the WLOCP, especially if they lose in Baton Rouge next week.

 

[78]

Success in sports comes so hard, it's so fleeting, that the average fan really has no clue what it takes to reach the top much less stay there.

You watch what happens in Tuscaloosa when Saban leaves. It'll be epic.

 

[oxrageous]

There's no way he was sober when he typed that up.

 

[InstiGATOR1]

So we’ve won 3 NCs in roughly 100 years, but we should expect to be in it no less than every 4 years?

No, UF has won 4 NC since in 33 years. That is about half the rate the original poster suggests, but really is was 4 NC between 1984 and 2008 when Fooley got full control to hire coaches the coached like he wanted, foolishly so make that 4 out of 23.

I know that in the 25 years from 1984 through 2008, UF won the SEC title 11 times or 44% of the time. I know in the 26 years from 1992 when the SEC went to a championship game through 2017 UF won the East (really won it and went to the championship game) 12 times or about 46% of the time.

These are the modern standards of UF. What happened in single platoon football when SEC teams played random schedules going decades without facing each other and Florida had 3 electoral votes is irrelevant to the expectations today of the flagship public university in the 3rd largest state in the country. UF along with aTm have best situation in the SEC and should have the highest expectations.

 

[Swamp Donkey]

I expect to see some improvement, and a top recruiting class.... or immediate corrective action to the recruiting staff.

 

[AugustaGator]

No one cares much about expectations when you're rebuilding. You begin looking big, big picture. Are you getting better? Are you heading in the right direction? Is there reason to feel optimistic about next season?

We're moving in the direction, decisively so, after five games. That's about all I'm ready to commit to say at this point.

That's all I've said too, but I'm going to laugh at the **** storm that will happen if we lose.

 

[Concrete Helmet]

I expect to be competitive, to get highly ranked recruit classes, to be a team that is circled on everyone's schedule as a point of concern, to play hard, to play well, and to own the swamp and make the opponent dread coming there.

This....as much as I love the banners that the program has won I just want to be Florida again.....The team that NOBODY really wanted to play and especially at home. The team that could open a can of whoop ass at the drop of a dime on anyone at any given time...The team that was always at least 2 deep at any position of the field and held in the highest regard by any recruit in the nation....

 

[jaywalker72]

I just want to have fun watching and attending Gator games.

 

[78]

That's all I've said too, but I'm going to laugh at the **** storm that will happen if we lose.

It really comes to are you going to focus on the big picture or be game to game judgmental? Lord knows I've done enough of the latter in my lifetime.

 

[ThreatMatrix]

Not quite sure where you're going with this, Threat.

I was meandering.

Really it's quite depressing if we're waiting to win the SEC since currently that means beating the team that's the favorite to win the NC. We all want to be in the NC conversation every year, but we are so far behind in talent that it is going to take a while. This recruiting class is even more important than most of us want to admit. In the end I blame Chump for turning us into a laughing stock and taking the luster off the program. Had the next coach been competent we might have recovered sooner but....

instead here we are just hoping to look better each week and not embarrass ourselves. SMH.