- Oct 5, 2017
- 2,315
- 6,299
A lot of this was researched and written prior to the loss at LSU. Numbers have been updated to reflect where UF is as of the 2021 bye week.
A few weeks ago, I saw a tweet by a writer saying it was unfair to compare Zook and Mullen. The writer cited the overall records of the coaches to validate his point. As anyone following me knows, I don’t like numbers without context. Strength of schedule should be factored when comparing teams and coaches. As a result, I decided to look deeper into the numbers to see if Zook and Mullen are comparable or if such comparisons are indeed unfair. I also researched strength of schedule and other comparable statistics to get a better grasp on each coach’s tenure.
Mullen is 33-12, a .733 win percentage as of this writing. Zook after his last game coaching the Gators was 23-14, a .622 win percentage. There is no doubt that the overall record favors Mullen, but the strength of schedule each coach faced is worth examining.
Strength of Schedule
Top 25 Record
To compare the strength of schedule, I used the AP final rankings for each season. I used the final rankings in an attempt to counteract inaccurate preseason rankings. Preseason rankings allow for a bad team to be highly ranked at the beginning of the season and finish unranked. Conversely, teams can go from unranked to finishing in the top 15, such as Ole Miss in 2003 and Kentucky in 2018. For example, I don’t consider Ron Zook’s win at #4 Tennessee in 2002 to be a victory over a top 5 team because Tennessee finished 8-5 and unranked. However, I consider the win over Auburn in 2002 a ranked win since the Tigers finished 14th in the AP poll, even though they were unranked when the Gators beat them. I understand it is a fair critique that sometimes teams can tank late in the season due to injuries in key positions; see Florida in 2013. There are also teams who can build a good record to begin the season only to fall off once they start playing the meat of their schedule. Bowl games are being counted as they count towards a coach’s overall record.
Zook finished his tenure 5-11 (.316) against teams that finished ranked in the final AP top 25 rankings. In 2002, Zook finished 2-3 against ranked teams. The biggest of those wins, and arguably his biggest win at UF, was against the Georgia Bulldogs who finished the season ranked #3. That team would finish 13-1 and were kept out of the BCS National Championship Game due to their lone loss of the season to Zook’s Gators. In 2004, Zook faced a ridiculous 7 teams that finished in the top 15 (no that’s not a typo, the Gators faced almost half of the top 15) and finished with a dismal 2-5 record against those teams. His biggest win of the season, and other arguable biggest win at UF, was against eventual the National Champion LSU Tigers lead by Nick Saban. Yes, Ron Zook beat Nick Saban in a National Title year. In 2004, Zook was fired after his 7th SEC regular season loss and would end his career with 8 SEC losses. That year Zook finished 1-3 against the top 25 with the lone win coming on the road in his final game against FSU. Zook faced 16 teams that finished ranked in 3 years.
As of this writing, and predicting Kentucky finishes ranked, Mullen is 4-9 (.308) against teams that finished ranked in the AP top 25 rankings. He has a #1 Georgia team coming up so that number will change. In 2018, Mullen was 2-2 against teams finishing ranked. His biggest win was a home game against an LSU team that finished at #6. In 2019, Mullen was 1-2 against teams that finished ranked with the lone victory coming at home against an Auburn team that finished ranked #14 and was led by true freshman QB Bo Nix. In 2020, in an All-SEC 10 game schedule, Mullen finished 1-3 against ranked teams with the lone victory being against an UGA team without a quality QB that finished #7. Mullen through 3 seasons finished with 7 SEC regular season losses, the number Zook had when he was fired. Mullen through 3 ½ yards ahs faced arguably 13 teams that have/will finish ranked.
Zook not only faced more teams that finished ranked in the AP poll in less time but had a similar winning percentage. Based on that, it would be fair to compare Zook and Mullen.
Record Against Top 10 and Top 5
After comparing their records against teams finishing in the top 25, it is good to examine each coach’s record against the top teams they faced. Zook went 3-5 (.375) against the top 10 and 2-2 (.500) against the top 5. If not for the Meltdown in Miami, he would have been 4-4 against the top 10 and 1-2 against the top 5 as Miami finished #5 in 2003. Mullen is 2-5 (.286) against the top 10 and 0-4 (.000) against teams finishing in the top 5. An interesting note is that Zook won multiple away games against teams that finished ranked, but Mullen has yet to accomplish that feat. The closest he came was the win at Mississippi State in 2018, a team that would finish 8-5 and would’ve been ranked if not for an Outback Bowl loss to Iowa.
Zook had a better record against teams finishing in the top 10 and beat not only teams finishing in the top 5, but a Nick Saban National Title team. When talking the biggest games against the biggest teams, it is unfair to Ron Zook to compare him to Dan Mullen. If we drop bowl games, Zook would be .500 against the top 10 and Mullen would still be .000 against the top 5.
Non-Conference Schedule
Ron Zook faced tougher non-conference schedules than Dan Mullen. Through five seasons, Ron Zook faced five extra top 25 teams than Mullen did in 3 seasons. This is explained by the non-conference schedules each coach faced. Ron Zook faced five regular season non-conference top 25 teams, two of which were top 5 Miami teams including Miami’s BCS National Championship Game losing team (with a questionable PI call). Dan Mullen feasted in 2018 and 2019 against four FBS non-conference opponents who finished unranked including a 6-7 Miami and the first two FSU teams with losing records in decades. Mullen also faced four FCS teams in his first two season, but Zook only faced one such team. In 2020, Mullen faced an all-SEC schedule and instead of non-conference games Arkansas and Texas A&M were added. A&M finished ranked #4 while Arkansas finished unranked. It should be noted the 2004 season was an 11-game season after 2002 and 2003 were special (at the time) twelve game seasons due to how the calendar worked out. Even if these were counted as non-conference teams for the sake of comparison, Zook would still have the tougher non-conference schedule.
I cannot say for sure if Mullen would’ve won all four non-conference games Zook lost against those Miami and FSU teams. I can assume, based on his current record against teams finishing in the top 5, he would’ve lost them, but that is not a guarantee. However, if you replace those Miami teams with FCS teams, Zook would’ve improved his record. Mullen still could’ve beaten those FSU teams, and we can talk about the Swindle, but I believe Zook would’ve beaten Taggart’s FSU teams.
If you take Zook’s two FSU losses and the Miami losses away and replace them with two FCS wins and two Taggart FSU wins, his winning percentage becomes .730. As stated above, Mullen’s is .733 currently.
Examining the context of coaching records matters. When comparing the strength of non-conference schedules, it balances each coaches winning percentage if you assume Mullen does go 8-0 while Zook also goes 8-0 due to the easier schedule. When looking at this, Mullen and Zook are comparable.
SEC Record
Zook only lost two conference games in his first two seasons. In his third season, he was fired after losing a third SEC game in the season. He only lost to a team finishing .500 or worse once, and that was the Mississippi State loss that got him fired. Mullen lost seven SEC games through three seasons, matching Zook’s number that he was fired at, though Zook ending at 8 (which Mullen also ended at in season three). Mullen will likely finish year 4 with two losses to two LSU teams that finish .500 or worse. You can write off his losses to Alabama. However, Zook beat the SEC’s top team two years in a row. At some point, you must win the big games. The records speak for themselves and show that these coaches are comparable at this point.
Non-Record Comparisons
Recruiting
According to 24/7, Zook’s three recruiting classes finished 10th, 1st, and 5th. Mullen’s first three classes finished 14, 9th, and 9th before last year’s 12th place finish. Now, as I’ve pointed out elsewhere, comparing Mullen’s recruiting to prior coaches is a bit of a misnomer. Ever since 2014 when Jeremy Foley declared, “As you look around our facilities, we’re not into bells and whistles…We’re always looking to upgrade our facilities, but we’re not getting into an arms race” the Gators have lagged behind many other schools in facilities. For years I was in denial myself regarding the impact of facilities in recruiting, but now recognize their impact. One of the key moments that helped solidify this belief was a video of our players seeing the renovated locker room in 2019 and one player in the background proclaiming, “we ain’t in the poor house no more.”
Don’t get me wrong, Mullen’s recruiting needs to improve, but when Zook and subsequent coaches were getting high level classes the facilities at UF were comparable with those found at other schools. That changes in 2022. However, using the pure numbers, Zook and Mullen are comparable in recruiting.
Offensive Stats
One of the biggest defenses of Dan Mullen is how great the Gators’ offenses are. I agree with this assessment. In 2020, we broke passing records that had stood for decades. However, our running offense was nowhere near as potent as it was when those records were set either. Dan Mullen’s teams have finished ranked 6th, 4th and 3rd in total offense in the SEC during his first three seasons at UF. His teams have finished 5th, 4th, and 2nd in points per game in the SEC. By comparison, Ron Zook’s teams finished 1st, 4th, and 1st in total offense in the SEC during his three seasons at UF. Zook’s teams finished 7th, 4th, and 2nd in points per game in the SEC. What these numbers tell me is that when comparing each coach to their eras, they both had great offenses. These numbers tell me that offensively, these two coaches are comparable. What is more impressive to me is when factoring strength of schedule, that the one who faced five ranked non-conference opponents still finished in the same position or better offensively in the SEC for the most part.
Situation They Walked Into
The situations that both coaches walked into when taking over UF were each problematic, but each in their own way. Zook took over a program where Steve Spurrier admitted he left the cupboard bare. He did have Heisman finalist returning as well as other offensive pieces. However, the next season he was forced to rely on a true freshman QB and a true sophomore the next year learning under his second Offensive Coordinator in two years. He also was following THE legend of Florida football.
Mullen walked into a team with no strength and conditioning program to speak of and no offensive success in 8 years. He did turn around the offense in year one. However, his success in his first three seasons came mostly with players that had either been left by McElwain or committed to McElwain including two QB’s who had been out of high school for several years and had SEC experience. He has had success filling holes with the transfer portal, but the long-term success of this is questionable. Arguably the situation was harder, but there were some who believed with the talent left behind he could win 10 games immediately.
Conclusion
After looking deeper, it appears Dan Mullen is more comparable to Ron Zook than most would believe by simply comparing winning percentages. That’s why looking at quality of opponents is worth doing before writing off a comparison. It’s like comparing McElwain and Mullen and saying McElwain was the better coach because Mac went to Atlanta in both his full seasons. Yes, Mullen has been to Atlanta and Zook never went. The difference was Mullen didn’t have a Swindle in the Swamp to ruin a tiebreaker.
I am not commenting on whether Mullen or Zook is a better coach. I am commenting on their Florida tenures which are more similar than they are different. It is hard to say where UF would be if Mullen had Zook’s schedule, but it is also hard to say how Mullen’s recruiting would be with facilities comparable to the rest of major college football.
For Mullen to not be comparable with a guy whose name has, unfairly in my opinion, become a slur with Gators fans, he needs to win something. Do what Zook did and win top 5 games, do what Zook did and don’t let undefeated juggernauts of teams mean an automatic loss, and do what Zook did and bring in top recruiting classes. Zook’s players wore their support for their fired coach while practicing for the bowl game. Mullen’s players openly post on Twitter about seniority and all but criticize coaches when asked questions by the media. In that, they are not comparable.
The numbers show that the two are comparable, time for Mullen to prove that its not and win something that matters.
A few weeks ago, I saw a tweet by a writer saying it was unfair to compare Zook and Mullen. The writer cited the overall records of the coaches to validate his point. As anyone following me knows, I don’t like numbers without context. Strength of schedule should be factored when comparing teams and coaches. As a result, I decided to look deeper into the numbers to see if Zook and Mullen are comparable or if such comparisons are indeed unfair. I also researched strength of schedule and other comparable statistics to get a better grasp on each coach’s tenure.
Mullen is 33-12, a .733 win percentage as of this writing. Zook after his last game coaching the Gators was 23-14, a .622 win percentage. There is no doubt that the overall record favors Mullen, but the strength of schedule each coach faced is worth examining.
Strength of Schedule
Top 25 Record
To compare the strength of schedule, I used the AP final rankings for each season. I used the final rankings in an attempt to counteract inaccurate preseason rankings. Preseason rankings allow for a bad team to be highly ranked at the beginning of the season and finish unranked. Conversely, teams can go from unranked to finishing in the top 15, such as Ole Miss in 2003 and Kentucky in 2018. For example, I don’t consider Ron Zook’s win at #4 Tennessee in 2002 to be a victory over a top 5 team because Tennessee finished 8-5 and unranked. However, I consider the win over Auburn in 2002 a ranked win since the Tigers finished 14th in the AP poll, even though they were unranked when the Gators beat them. I understand it is a fair critique that sometimes teams can tank late in the season due to injuries in key positions; see Florida in 2013. There are also teams who can build a good record to begin the season only to fall off once they start playing the meat of their schedule. Bowl games are being counted as they count towards a coach’s overall record.
Zook finished his tenure 5-11 (.316) against teams that finished ranked in the final AP top 25 rankings. In 2002, Zook finished 2-3 against ranked teams. The biggest of those wins, and arguably his biggest win at UF, was against the Georgia Bulldogs who finished the season ranked #3. That team would finish 13-1 and were kept out of the BCS National Championship Game due to their lone loss of the season to Zook’s Gators. In 2004, Zook faced a ridiculous 7 teams that finished in the top 15 (no that’s not a typo, the Gators faced almost half of the top 15) and finished with a dismal 2-5 record against those teams. His biggest win of the season, and other arguable biggest win at UF, was against eventual the National Champion LSU Tigers lead by Nick Saban. Yes, Ron Zook beat Nick Saban in a National Title year. In 2004, Zook was fired after his 7th SEC regular season loss and would end his career with 8 SEC losses. That year Zook finished 1-3 against the top 25 with the lone win coming on the road in his final game against FSU. Zook faced 16 teams that finished ranked in 3 years.
As of this writing, and predicting Kentucky finishes ranked, Mullen is 4-9 (.308) against teams that finished ranked in the AP top 25 rankings. He has a #1 Georgia team coming up so that number will change. In 2018, Mullen was 2-2 against teams finishing ranked. His biggest win was a home game against an LSU team that finished at #6. In 2019, Mullen was 1-2 against teams that finished ranked with the lone victory coming at home against an Auburn team that finished ranked #14 and was led by true freshman QB Bo Nix. In 2020, in an All-SEC 10 game schedule, Mullen finished 1-3 against ranked teams with the lone victory being against an UGA team without a quality QB that finished #7. Mullen through 3 seasons finished with 7 SEC regular season losses, the number Zook had when he was fired. Mullen through 3 ½ yards ahs faced arguably 13 teams that have/will finish ranked.
Zook not only faced more teams that finished ranked in the AP poll in less time but had a similar winning percentage. Based on that, it would be fair to compare Zook and Mullen.
Record Against Top 10 and Top 5
After comparing their records against teams finishing in the top 25, it is good to examine each coach’s record against the top teams they faced. Zook went 3-5 (.375) against the top 10 and 2-2 (.500) against the top 5. If not for the Meltdown in Miami, he would have been 4-4 against the top 10 and 1-2 against the top 5 as Miami finished #5 in 2003. Mullen is 2-5 (.286) against the top 10 and 0-4 (.000) against teams finishing in the top 5. An interesting note is that Zook won multiple away games against teams that finished ranked, but Mullen has yet to accomplish that feat. The closest he came was the win at Mississippi State in 2018, a team that would finish 8-5 and would’ve been ranked if not for an Outback Bowl loss to Iowa.
Zook had a better record against teams finishing in the top 10 and beat not only teams finishing in the top 5, but a Nick Saban National Title team. When talking the biggest games against the biggest teams, it is unfair to Ron Zook to compare him to Dan Mullen. If we drop bowl games, Zook would be .500 against the top 10 and Mullen would still be .000 against the top 5.
Non-Conference Schedule
Ron Zook faced tougher non-conference schedules than Dan Mullen. Through five seasons, Ron Zook faced five extra top 25 teams than Mullen did in 3 seasons. This is explained by the non-conference schedules each coach faced. Ron Zook faced five regular season non-conference top 25 teams, two of which were top 5 Miami teams including Miami’s BCS National Championship Game losing team (with a questionable PI call). Dan Mullen feasted in 2018 and 2019 against four FBS non-conference opponents who finished unranked including a 6-7 Miami and the first two FSU teams with losing records in decades. Mullen also faced four FCS teams in his first two season, but Zook only faced one such team. In 2020, Mullen faced an all-SEC schedule and instead of non-conference games Arkansas and Texas A&M were added. A&M finished ranked #4 while Arkansas finished unranked. It should be noted the 2004 season was an 11-game season after 2002 and 2003 were special (at the time) twelve game seasons due to how the calendar worked out. Even if these were counted as non-conference teams for the sake of comparison, Zook would still have the tougher non-conference schedule.
I cannot say for sure if Mullen would’ve won all four non-conference games Zook lost against those Miami and FSU teams. I can assume, based on his current record against teams finishing in the top 5, he would’ve lost them, but that is not a guarantee. However, if you replace those Miami teams with FCS teams, Zook would’ve improved his record. Mullen still could’ve beaten those FSU teams, and we can talk about the Swindle, but I believe Zook would’ve beaten Taggart’s FSU teams.
If you take Zook’s two FSU losses and the Miami losses away and replace them with two FCS wins and two Taggart FSU wins, his winning percentage becomes .730. As stated above, Mullen’s is .733 currently.
Examining the context of coaching records matters. When comparing the strength of non-conference schedules, it balances each coaches winning percentage if you assume Mullen does go 8-0 while Zook also goes 8-0 due to the easier schedule. When looking at this, Mullen and Zook are comparable.
SEC Record
Zook only lost two conference games in his first two seasons. In his third season, he was fired after losing a third SEC game in the season. He only lost to a team finishing .500 or worse once, and that was the Mississippi State loss that got him fired. Mullen lost seven SEC games through three seasons, matching Zook’s number that he was fired at, though Zook ending at 8 (which Mullen also ended at in season three). Mullen will likely finish year 4 with two losses to two LSU teams that finish .500 or worse. You can write off his losses to Alabama. However, Zook beat the SEC’s top team two years in a row. At some point, you must win the big games. The records speak for themselves and show that these coaches are comparable at this point.
Non-Record Comparisons
Recruiting
According to 24/7, Zook’s three recruiting classes finished 10th, 1st, and 5th. Mullen’s first three classes finished 14, 9th, and 9th before last year’s 12th place finish. Now, as I’ve pointed out elsewhere, comparing Mullen’s recruiting to prior coaches is a bit of a misnomer. Ever since 2014 when Jeremy Foley declared, “As you look around our facilities, we’re not into bells and whistles…We’re always looking to upgrade our facilities, but we’re not getting into an arms race” the Gators have lagged behind many other schools in facilities. For years I was in denial myself regarding the impact of facilities in recruiting, but now recognize their impact. One of the key moments that helped solidify this belief was a video of our players seeing the renovated locker room in 2019 and one player in the background proclaiming, “we ain’t in the poor house no more.”
Don’t get me wrong, Mullen’s recruiting needs to improve, but when Zook and subsequent coaches were getting high level classes the facilities at UF were comparable with those found at other schools. That changes in 2022. However, using the pure numbers, Zook and Mullen are comparable in recruiting.
Offensive Stats
One of the biggest defenses of Dan Mullen is how great the Gators’ offenses are. I agree with this assessment. In 2020, we broke passing records that had stood for decades. However, our running offense was nowhere near as potent as it was when those records were set either. Dan Mullen’s teams have finished ranked 6th, 4th and 3rd in total offense in the SEC during his first three seasons at UF. His teams have finished 5th, 4th, and 2nd in points per game in the SEC. By comparison, Ron Zook’s teams finished 1st, 4th, and 1st in total offense in the SEC during his three seasons at UF. Zook’s teams finished 7th, 4th, and 2nd in points per game in the SEC. What these numbers tell me is that when comparing each coach to their eras, they both had great offenses. These numbers tell me that offensively, these two coaches are comparable. What is more impressive to me is when factoring strength of schedule, that the one who faced five ranked non-conference opponents still finished in the same position or better offensively in the SEC for the most part.
Situation They Walked Into
The situations that both coaches walked into when taking over UF were each problematic, but each in their own way. Zook took over a program where Steve Spurrier admitted he left the cupboard bare. He did have Heisman finalist returning as well as other offensive pieces. However, the next season he was forced to rely on a true freshman QB and a true sophomore the next year learning under his second Offensive Coordinator in two years. He also was following THE legend of Florida football.
Mullen walked into a team with no strength and conditioning program to speak of and no offensive success in 8 years. He did turn around the offense in year one. However, his success in his first three seasons came mostly with players that had either been left by McElwain or committed to McElwain including two QB’s who had been out of high school for several years and had SEC experience. He has had success filling holes with the transfer portal, but the long-term success of this is questionable. Arguably the situation was harder, but there were some who believed with the talent left behind he could win 10 games immediately.
Conclusion
After looking deeper, it appears Dan Mullen is more comparable to Ron Zook than most would believe by simply comparing winning percentages. That’s why looking at quality of opponents is worth doing before writing off a comparison. It’s like comparing McElwain and Mullen and saying McElwain was the better coach because Mac went to Atlanta in both his full seasons. Yes, Mullen has been to Atlanta and Zook never went. The difference was Mullen didn’t have a Swindle in the Swamp to ruin a tiebreaker.
I am not commenting on whether Mullen or Zook is a better coach. I am commenting on their Florida tenures which are more similar than they are different. It is hard to say where UF would be if Mullen had Zook’s schedule, but it is also hard to say how Mullen’s recruiting would be with facilities comparable to the rest of major college football.
For Mullen to not be comparable with a guy whose name has, unfairly in my opinion, become a slur with Gators fans, he needs to win something. Do what Zook did and win top 5 games, do what Zook did and don’t let undefeated juggernauts of teams mean an automatic loss, and do what Zook did and bring in top recruiting classes. Zook’s players wore their support for their fired coach while practicing for the bowl game. Mullen’s players openly post on Twitter about seniority and all but criticize coaches when asked questions by the media. In that, they are not comparable.
The numbers show that the two are comparable, time for Mullen to prove that its not and win something that matters.
