Where’s the evidence he can recruit?
I decided to dig more on this question. I'm not telling you what to think, but I'm just putting the facts out there.
1. His classes at FAU are the highest ranked classes in program history. I checked this with Rivals. And FAU has no football history whatsoever. Taggart, who was also supposed to be a good recruiter, has not recruited as well as Kiffin did.
2. I think a good indicator of current recruiting ability would be to look at the state of Mississippi last cycle and this cycle. Last year, the state of Mississippi only had a grand total of 6 players ranked 4* or higher in the 2021 class. Saban, Orgeron (who would likely be on Kiffin's staff FWIW), and Cristobal took the top 3. So there were really 3 4* recruits for MSU and Ole Miss to fight over. MSU got two of them and Ole Miss got the last one, Luke Altmer, who Kiffin flipped from FSU before signing day.
However, Ole Miss did sign 6 4* players from out of state last year, showing that Kiffin can find players out of the state if he can't find them in state. And most of these players are from areas UF has regularly plucked talent from.
He also found 3 4* players to come be a part of his transition class before he even coached a game at Ole Miss. They came on board after Kiffin accepted the job at Ole Miss. I checked that with rivals as well.
3. This year there are 10 recruits ranked 4* or higher in the state of Mississippi. Kirby and Saban have secured commitments from two of them. So that leaves 8 recruits that Kiffin could realistically land. Manny Diaz has a commitment from one. Ole Miss has secured pledges from 4 of the top 10. MSU has 2 of the top 10. The last of the top 10 appears to be a battle between FSU and Ole Miss. If 4* players are the goal in the state of Mississippi, then so far this year Kiffin's getting about half of the ones he's expected to compete for after Kirby and Saban have gotten theirs.
He is doing better this year in the state of Mississippi than Mullen did on a regular basis at MSU FWIW.