On the AR issue, we will see what Indy runs, but I think it is hard to deny AR would have been better in a more traditional spread concept last year. I expect the Colts to lean into that as NFL teams rise or fall based on the QB, who they hope to have for 5-10 years if successful. Whereas, the long-term future of UF's program is not tied to running what AR does best, even if last season would have had better results. AR goes pro either way, and until the NIL fiasco, Napier had back to back highly rated QBs coming in to the system he was showing on the field.
Napier chose system over player in what he likely saw as a wasted year. He apparently loves and believes in that system. If he misplaces that belief, he will be fired. Right now the results are not great. Playing the tighter splits, running play action, and having one receiver so far behind the line on those deep motions, all crowd the middle of the field in a way that is not helpful to a mobile QB. Limited receiver options (often just 2-3 receiver plays), also hurts AR as it requires less DBs to cover and permits easier spying/coverage to protect against the scramble. But, the same concepts can help when you get better WRs and an experienced QB. Those tighter splits can result in greater isolation on the outside for WRs that can create separation. To that point, more than a Mertz v Lagway v AR comparison, it is possible the WRs make a larger impact in the offense than the QBs over the next two years.
Ultimately, I think NFL teams could see, just like us, that the scheme did not help AR. AR also had his own seeming emotional/mental toughness issues to work through that could have existed even in a more tailored system.
Whether the decision to push his offense instead of tailor it to AR is a good decision long-term, will play out over the next 2 years. If it doesn't show up by then, year 4 will be a brutal waiting period even with Lagway being on campus for a year. Lagway shows amazing flashes, but also some real consistency and accuracy problems too, without being as good of a runner.
Last point - if Simmons shows up first, I don't think Lagway ever plays at UF. Simmons looks very legit on film.