Recruiting 2020 Recruiting Thread: Gervon Dexter gets 5th Star on Rivals

Discussion in 'Main Sports Forum' started by LongTooth, Jul 31, 2018.

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  1. jaywalker72

    jaywalker72 Current Status: Dumper
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    I remember Spurrier missing on Manning when dude chose poorly and we hung four losses on him.

    Will be a shame if history repeats itself with Beck and the Dwags.

    (Edited to make clear my intent that Florida made Manning’s career less than ultimate by beating them all four times and costing him a Heisman and would look forward to doing that again.)
     
    #1561 jaywalker72, Mar 5, 2019
    Last edited: Mar 5, 2019
    • UFHealthGator

      UFHealthGator Well-Known Member
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      Definitely wouldn't be a shame.
       
      • Swamp Donkey

        Swamp Donkey That's the sound your mother made last night
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        Real tired of year after year nonstop excuses.

        Wait til next year. Wait til he have football facilities in 2025-2030.

        Wait til next year. We sound like Tinerc.
         
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        • Slevin

          Slevin Law’s Alter-Ego

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          And here is swonkeys yearly March meltdown a full 11 months before signing day
           
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          • gatormandan

            gatormandan Donk Killa
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            Yeah, we will suck forever.
             
            • Fishon

              Fishon Senior Member
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              he's such a goddamn baby
               
              • Durfish

                Durfish Feed me!
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                Except it's been 12 years since Tennessee has had a 10 win season. We're not Tennessee. We don't sound like Tennessee. Nobody here is saying we have to wait until 2030 to have a good year.

                BUT...we DO have to wait until next year. Because, well, it's the next year.
                 
                • BMF

                  BMF Bad Mother....
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                  I haven't looked at his ypc, but the point is that - according to the article Miles wrote - there is a direct correlation to a HS QBs completion percentage to his success in college. If AR is having a problem w/ the intermediate throws, I'm sure that's something Mullen can work on. As Law loves to point out - this offense doesn't throw downfield very often. AR is an athlete, so I'm sure Mullen can work it out. Hopefully AR can redshirt, fix whatever may be wrong w/ his passing mechanics (and accuracy)....then be ready to compete w/ the Jones' in a year or two.
                   
                  • t-gator

                    t-gator too sexy for my shirt

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                    So there's a silver lining in this after all. We can go poach fsu's QB commit. That would be hilarious. Let them go another 2 or 3 years before they actually sign one.
                     
                  • Slevin

                    Slevin Law’s Alter-Ego

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                    The 2020 Swonkey meltdown appreciation thread is going to be a good one
                     
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                    • t-gator

                      t-gator too sexy for my shirt

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                      Kinda reminds of the dance party some of you were having over the 2023 class a few weeks before signing day
                       
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                      • Slevin

                        Slevin Law’s Alter-Ego

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                        What
                         
                        • BMF

                          BMF Bad Mother....
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                          True....but I hope it doesn't come to that and we land AR. At this point, I'm worried AR will be a 'scorned lover' and say "f*ck you" and leave Gainesville out of spite. Hopefully Johnson & Mullen can get him back.
                           
                          • t-gator

                            t-gator too sexy for my shirt

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                            Does Simms suck ? Haven't really looked into it?
                             
                          • BMF

                            BMF Bad Mother....
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                            Here's a doom and gloom article from Will Miles regarding the Beck commit to UGA....and the amount of talent they've amassed:

                            Carson Beck’s commitment is a sign of the oncoming Georgia blitz

                            Carson Beck’s commitment is a sign of the oncoming Georgia blitz - Read and Reaction

                            If we look at Georgia coming into the 2019 season, those numbers for Smart’s squad are 18 5-stars, 58 4-stars, 22 3-stars and a national recruiting average of 3.0.

                            Based on the analysis I cited by 247Sports regarding how often players get drafted into the NFL based on star ranking (62% for 5-stars, 23% for 4-stars and 5% for 3-stars), this should translate to 25.9 players from this particular team who will eventually end up being drafted into the NFL.

                            25.9 is an entire roster of starters, plus four more guys. So yes, Justin Fields is no longer at Georgia, but that hardly matters. The talent level in Athens is ridiculous.

                            In fact, the 2019 roster that Smart will bring into the season is slightly better than Saban’s. Over the past four seasons, the Tide have signed 14 5-stars, 68 4-stars and 20 3-stars. That should translate into 25.7 players drafted into the NFL.

                            So if you would feel nervous about your team facing Alabama, you should feel the same way about Georgia, because the Bulldogs have the exact same amount of talent – and more top-end talent – than the Tide.

                            Implications for Florida – and the rest of the SEC East
                            Dan Mullen has definitely increased the talent level at Florida. But that increase has had its limits.

                            As it stands, Florida will come into 2019 having signed 0 5-stars, 50 4-stars and 42 3-stars over the past four recruiting cycles. That translates to 14.1 players drafted. The good news is that is the second most talent in the SEC East. But the bad news is that it is still just sixth in the SEC overall.

                            [​IMG]
                            Talent level from previous four recruiting cycles for each team in the SEC. (Will Miles/Read and Reaction)

                            The difference in talent between Florida and Georgia (11.8) is larger than the difference between Florida and Vanderbilt (8.9).

                            Additionally, the Bulldogs signed seven 5-star players in the 2018 recruiting cycle. Along with the losses of Nick Chubb, Sony Michel and other stars from the 2017 team that made it to the national championship game, those players were young in 2018. That meant that some thought that 2018 was the year for someone to “get” Georgia.

                            Florida lost 36-17 even though Kirby Smart made a ton of decisions that could be called questionable, at best. At some point, players matter.

                            For the 2019 schedule, just based on talent alone, Florida should defeat everyone in the SEC East except for Georgia. The problem is that the Gators also play Auburn and LSU from the West, both ranked ahead by this analysis. Florida State – for all of its issues right now – also ranks ahead of the Gators on pure talent alone.

                            Coaching and Development
                            I actually do believe that Dan Mullen develops talent better than his peers.

                            In fact, out of 169 3-star players that he recruited to Mississippi State from 2007-2015, 8.3 percent of those players were drafted, compared to 5.9 percent nationally. So if we apply that 2.4 percent increase across the board to 5, 4, and 3-star recruits, that raises the expected number of Florida players to be drafted to 16.3.

                            That is a significant increase. It puts Florida ahead of Texas A&M and Auburn and nipping at LSU’s heels.

                            Georgia last season had an expected draft number of 24.1. The Bulldogs lost to two teams with less overall talent (LSU, 18.2; Texas, 16.9) and one team with more talent (Alabama, 25.6). That means that a team with more talent can lose.

                            But it also likely means that there is a threshold where you have to get to in order to really be able to compete with a more talented team.

                            Takeaway
                            That’s why the commitment of Carson Beck to Georgia is such a problem.

                            It’s not that Florida lost out on one high-level recruit. It’s not that Florida absolutely has to have him to succeed at the QB position. Mullen likely already has someone he can get to play really well. It’s that a team that is loaded with talent continues to add elite talent, this time from the Gators backyard.

                            Georgia has 15 returning starters in 2019. And the Bulldogs are going to add the true impact of the 2018 recruiting class now that it has a full year of experience.

                            ESPN may be selecting another Clemson/Alabama tilt for the championship again in 2019, but if I had to put my money on someone, I’d put my money on Georgia.

                            They’ve had Alabama on the ropes for two straight years – with slightly inferior talent – the past two seasons. This year, there is no such excuse.

                            That may mean that we’ll find out that Kirby Smart just isn’t a good in-game coach. It may mean that we find out that the impact of Dan Mullen on his players was significantly understated at Mississippi State because he had to do so much with so many 3-star players.

                            Or it may mean that we find out that in the end, talent eventually wins out.

                            And if that’s true, then everyone is going to be looking up at Georgia for the foreseeable future.
                             
                          • CGgater

                            CGgater Gainesville Native
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                            Didn’t follow recruiting back then, other than the NSD summary and signee profiles after it was over. Did pm actually turn down an offer from SOS? If true (considering how everyone likes to say he’s such a smart qb) he might just be the STUPIDEST college QB in history and he deserves the 0-4 and heisman loss, too.
                             
                          • BMF

                            BMF Bad Mother....
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                            No, he's decent - but raw (needs coaching/development). But he'd be a similar pick up as AR & the Jones', just much lower ranked. He's 6'3 200-ish, so similar size as Jalen Jones (bigger than EJ out of HS). He's a mid-range 3-star for now, w/ an unimpressive offer list (outside of FSU: BC, Bowling Green, Colorado State, Cincinatti, other G5 schools and a few P5). I'm guessing he climbs the rankings some.
                             
                            • t-gator

                              t-gator too sexy for my shirt

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                              I wish our Uaa would would see this trend and start making some moves. For the life of me, I just don't get it.
                               
                            • BMF

                              BMF Bad Mother....
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                              What trends/moves?
                               
                            • Swamp Donkey

                              Swamp Donkey That's the sound your mother made last night
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                              Yeah..... this was the most clownish part of the whole thing.
                               
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