Crete, any number released by any gov't agency, the BLS or other, has to be taken with a grain of salt. And the monthly jobs release has the widest margin of error by far for many reasons. Lack of responses, the BS seasonality factors, the birth/death model, how many of these jobs are 2nd or 3rd jobs for existing people etc. There is absolutely no reason for the FED to lower rates other than all the talking heads saying real rates are too high. But financial conditions are so loose all lowering rates will do is make them easier and we stay in this cycle forever. The biggest issue that I completely disagree on is how they interpret inflation. Yes it is going up more slowly or possibly not going up at all, but that is disinflation, not deflation. Show me anywhere that prices are coming down in any meaningful way. In my area, the things people purchase most often are not coming down in price, and even though I saw and onion for $3/lb, it used to be $1.49/lb. And I do not think think that workers wages increased 100%. Houses up close to 100% in my area, though that is the only thing in my area that is truly deflating, yet from a 100+% increase the past 3 years, The problem they have is interest rates on monthly payments for the majority of people. that is their only impetus for lowering the O/N rate. CC rates 25+%, auto loans 15+%. That is where they have issues b/c these affect a good majority of people.
