Anybody taking advantage of Coronavirus?
- Thread starter ThreatMatrix
- Start date
- Feb 1, 2017
- 3,927
- 6,834
Gold just broke resistance, let's see if it bounces back if it doesn't $1800 gold is in the offing.
- Feb 1, 2017
- 3,927
- 6,834
Bouncing back nicely now.
- Nov 19, 2014
- 9,330
- 15,048
- Feb 1, 2017
- 3,927
- 6,834
Yes I meant supportMe thinks you mean Support, but who's counting?
- Nov 19, 2014
- 9,330
- 15,048
No rush into treasurys, no rush into gold and I see some stable stocks also coming down. Credit spreads are not widening so I don;t sense this anything more than day 2 of way overpriced stocks finally coming down a bit. Remember this is a 3 day weekend. Less that half of the traders are at their desk or even working so liquidity is scarce. There will be air pockets on days like this
- Jul 15, 2014
- 28,632
- 47,616
Update:
- Still all cash... ain't in a rush to do anything, especially going into a long weekend. Will wait for confirmation next week of where we are going.
- OVERALL, I'm still bullish, because of one, single, monosyllabic word: Fed.
- This dip fully pierced the "box" of support (FULL pun intended!) I said ran from 3450 down to 3375. We PIERCED the support. What is important is where we CLOSE today.
- Close ABOVE 3375, support has held, it was a normal pullback to the moving averages, and bulls LIKELY remain in charge (but I'll wait for confirmation next week, ain't worried about missing out on squat). If this scenario holds, we probably start pushing up again towards that Rule of 7's 3rd (of 3) probable target of 3612.
- Close BELOW 3375, support is officially broken and bears are in charge (but I'll wait for confirmation...) and we've likely entered the Wave 2 down.
- Let's see where we close.
- Will try to do an update on Monday going into Tuesday open.
- Enjoy your communist holiday weekend!
- Jul 29, 2014
- 22,230
- 23,518
Nice recovery at the end of the day for some damage control.....Now if it hadn't been for the 10yr going balls deep and dry into my LT sh!t.....someone needs to slap that MFer back into back into reality next week...
- Jul 15, 2014
- 28,632
- 47,616
- Jul 29, 2014
- 22,230
- 23,518
Revenge of the nerds and Itchy trigger fingers I guess. I got rid of an S&P500 ETF that admittedly I got into a little late on Thursday at noon but hung on to everything else most of which was bought in late March. Like you've been saying this really isn't unexpected but everyone who didn't ditch in the last couple of weeks needs to watch the top of the tower for falling bricks next couple of weeks.But the payrolls report! How did this happen!!
September is typically the slowest month of the year in almost any industry and it is historically reflected in stocks not to mention election years historically have a drag on Wall Street. I'll ditch if I have too but it's hard to let go of ETF's that that you are $100 plus a share up on...a lot of room for resettling there before throwing the baby out with the bath water.
- Jul 15, 2014
- 28,632
- 47,616
Pro tip (that was very, very, hard to actually do personally): if your greatest regret in trading life is, "I wish I wouldn't have sold so soon," you've likely made plenty, and, more importantly, kept everything, you started with. I could care less if we gap up 2.5% on Tuesday morning open and I "miss" out on that gain, I "missed" out on the 6% (or whatever it was) fall this past weak. And given that I only use leveraged ETFs (in either direction), those %'s would be magnified at least 2x (if not 3x).
We are in a band of support right now with the SP500... right smack in the middle of the band. The center of the band is 3412 and we are at 3415. Now, I think it is more likely that support holds and we break upward and push even as high as 3612, but when in the band, you wait for confirmation on which direction we are going. Given the world today, and given last week and where the market is sitting right now, no way in hell I wanted to leave stuff hanging out there going into a 3 day weekend in what you correctly point out is a slow time of year trading wise... volume is THIN which means the market can get pushed one way or the other VERY easily.
And no, I'm no "genius" let alone an "arrogant **** genius" when it comes to trading. I spent plenty of years losing money because I was an arrogant **** who thought he was smart enough to be tricky instead of following some very basic rules/systems just trading the major indexes and sectors/commodities with leveraged ETFs... and learning when to just sit the fcuk out and wait (which is the HARDEST of all to do).
- Jun 12, 2014
- 9,589
- 18,795
Founding Member
because this seems to be the hot thread at the moment, i'll post this here, with just about every vehicle manufacturer going to have electric models, whoever hits the market with the best battery will be in a strong position
VW One-Ups Tesla With a Revolutionary Battery Breakthrough
VW One-Ups Tesla With a Revolutionary Battery Breakthrough
- Jul 15, 2014
- 28,632
- 47,616
Update:
I will likely go long again tomorrow, but not in a big way until we get confirmation. Then I'll go in big again, whether it's bullish or bearish.
- This is the week where we get confirmation as to whether last week was a normal correction, or a sign that we topped.
- In order to have a major correction that indicates we have topped (like the Wave 2 I talk about), we need to see three things:
- Overbought conditions.
- what I call a "bearish divergence" between rising market price, but falling overbought RSI conditions.
- a break (i.e. close) below the rising trend channel (the regression channel).
- So far, only #1 above has happened and we got a normal pullback to the 21 EMA, and it held. We'll see if we get #2 and #3 now.
- In 1971, the market pulled back to the 21 EMA several times as it continued to rise, then we finally got #'s 2 and 3 before the major correction.
- 10 yr up again. Bullish.
- Dow Transports still in upward channel and rising again. Bullish.
- Russel 2000 still in upward channel.
- Dollar still showing no real signs of life. It's been making "lower highs" each time it has rallied recently, and no where near hitting the resistance level it needs to break through to show any real strength. Bullish.
- Still have not hit the original Rule of 7's 3rd (and final) probable target of 3612. We came close'ish" at 3580, but we didn't hit it.
- So, all indications are that bulls are still in charge for now.
- Most likely: we have not topped yet:
- Key support is 3349. As long as the SP500 stays above 3349, bulls are in charge.
- Market would push up to 3612, possibly overshoot to 3653.
- If this happens, we probably get another pullback to the 21 EMA, which would be at about 3580, then we reassess.
- Less likely: we have topped:
- Assuming we have topped.
- Would likely see a bounce up towards 3500-3540, then sellers would take control and push us down BELOW last week's low at 3349 and lower. A break of 3349 would be the #3 above (break lower out of rising regression channel) and we would be in the big Wave 2 correction.
I will likely go long again tomorrow, but not in a big way until we get confirmation. Then I'll go in big again, whether it's bullish or bearish.
- Nov 19, 2014
- 9,330
- 15,048
Good stuff @Detroitgator, as I am watching a lot of overall trends as a way of trying to get into certain positions I want to enter or increase/decrease. the technicals are the technicals and it really does not matter what takes them there, but perhaps some political wrangling not only here but from Britain might add some volatility. I am watching the dollar closely as most everyone has been bearish (myself included) but outside of the pound. euro and yuan, the dollar is hanging in there (especially against the yen). Not only Britain but Japan and China politics could cause some action in the dollar. Also the 10 yr. going up should be good for stocks, but it had a good move late in the week. 79 basis points in the recent intraday high, so i would be interested to see if it breaks 80 basis points with a move up in the dollar, what stocks might do in the short term. Still summer, still light volume, so you never know when you might get filled on some crazy orders so it does not hurt to have them out there.
- Nov 19, 2014
- 9,330
- 15,048
BTW @Detroitgator guess I now know why the VIX was staying elevated and actually going higher even on days when the market was going straight up. Remember I mentioned a week or so ago I noticed that but was just watching and wondering. Well guess we found out with that rumor of MasaSon and Softbank keeping Options premium high, LOL.
- Jul 29, 2014
- 22,230
- 23,518
Need to see someone other than the 4 or 5 that have pushed this surge and I don't trust the people at the top for them during political season...
- Jul 15, 2014
- 28,632
- 47,616
Irrelevant on all counts, seriously.
- Jul 29, 2014
- 22,230
- 23,518
It all matters. Headlines, elections, polls, splitting stocks and buying/selling power of the big market players and their influence on the system. Look at your probable timelines and predictions through the next couple of month's. IMO the if's, and's, and but's will be filled in by the headlines and the people who influence them.
- Jul 15, 2014
- 28,632
- 47,616
I'd agree, if we had a free market.
