Anyone else see history about to repeat itself?

We're looking at moving and buying a place in the Johnson County, KS area (currently renting in FL).

I really don't want to get stuck with a place that drops 20% or more in value within a year of moving in.

We're not looking to be in KC long-term. Just want to spend 2-3 years with our grandkids while they're young.

If we do buy, will probably look at something that needs updating and that we can rent once we've moved out if selling it doesn't make sense..

 

Do you see this happening in the coastal areas of Florida as well? I am asking because Mrs. G is interested in moving back to the west coast of Florida at some point (she grew up in St. Pete) and we have started looking at land and houses in the Pinellas and Pasco areas. Our hope is something on the water with gulf or bay access. The vacant lots we've looked at have really appreciated over the last couple of years.

 

I am ready to build a detached garage/barn/workshop. It aint happening in my county in Florida. Builders are WAY too busy for a "small" project like that.

Several new lot owners in my neighborhood are ready to custom build and their projects are 6 months behind before the ground is even touched.

One person is ready to build a pool. They are scheduled a full year out.

 

CH, I think we're going to see a downturn, but nothing like 2006-2010. It'll be much more mild. Builders are going to take a hit that are building large subdivisions, but more than likely they'll have to cut their prices and take less of a profit.

Another thing right now is building costs are through the roof due to the cost of lumber and other construction supplies.

There is no doubt going to be another stimulus, which will continue to protect foreclosures and dead beat renters. But once that ends...the flood gates will open.

I'm looking to move - hopefully - within 6-9 months. I think I'll be safe here in the DC area and if prices are still high in Florida when we move we plan to rent. I'm sitting on a ton of cash (for me, at least) and we're ready to buy at least three rental properties in the $300K-$400K range. I'm hoping for a downturn so that will be more like $250K-$350K.

 

I'd hold off right now, if you can wait. Building costs are super high and everyone (builders) are busy AF. Give it until next summer and you may be in a much better position. Concrete is right that there's a bust coming (again - I don't think it's going to be as severe as 2006-2010, but it's coming).

 

Oh absolutely. I really dont have a choice anyway. But I have zero issues waiting a year or two.

 

My wife wants to move to the Tampa/St Pete area. I'd prefer to build, but she wants an older (renovated) home (like in the Hyde Park area of Tampa - or downtown area of St. Pete). I want a lot on an ally so I can build a garage apartment on it - to rent out for revenue. I told her if we move by next summer we're likely going to rent, and she seems fine with it. So we'll see.

 

I am bullish on equities for about a year out. Then I will start pulling back. RE is going to drop first. There will be a good buyers market in two years. With these low rates and central banks keeping them low for the next 2-3 years things will get dicey. Then there will be a massive thud! The wuhan virus costs will come home in 18 months. Unemployment will spike, defaults will spike, pensions will be even more underfunded ........
Keep your powder dry an be patient.

 

Welcome to Santa Rosa County... where a whole slew of new subdivisions in the first time home buyer price range were approved about 12 months ago, and ground just started breaking in the last three months... or even just this week in terms of a big 700 home one that they started clearing trees and burning the brush piles.

This is EXACTLY what happened last time... cleared land, paved streets with lights and drainage... and all of them either folded or had literally 20 houses built/occupied in 500+ home developments for about 5+ years before others started building their homes. Those developments from 10+ years ago are JUST nearing full buildout now, and now this whole new round of ground breaking has started again.

@Concrete Helmet all part of the "V" shaped recovery, right?

 

DC is probably the most recession proof city in the US. Last time around things didn’t go down much except at the very high end. Property just kinda stayed stagnant before going again (where it quickly made up for lost time).

 

The guy i learned real estate investing from had this as one of his few hard set rules: find area with stable employment and you can't beat the FEDERAL govt for that... so I agree, DC is very safe... it's also very safe because the vast majority of non-Federal employee jobs are tied directly to Federal spending, and that doesn't go away either. It's why I always though Huntsville was the perfect place to start investing about 15 years ago. For non-govt job areas, he talked about towns that had big power generating plants, or the few locations nationwide that have one of the giant Budweiser facilities... also recession proof. Rome, GA was good for that.

 

Exactly.

 

Just like what happened in southwest Florida in places in the middle of the everglades that had no name basically, like something called Lehigh Acres, etc. that all of sudden had 5000 3BR/2BA 1700 sq. ft homes that went half built. People came in years after and bought 10, 20, 30 houses at a time sight unseen. Blackstone bought over 100K homes nationwide. Now you have a company like Invitation Homes buying homes in suburbs and renting them to goofs who do not want to own but moved to the suburbs. What happens when the WOO TANG CLAN or WOO FLU is gone and those guys want to take their ball and go back to a condo in the city? Patience, Grasshopper, Patience.

 

Here's a good video about a possible 2021 housing crash: