Anyone else see history about to repeat itself?

Discussion in 'Business, Investing & Finance' started by Concrete Helmet, Nov 18, 2020.

  1. Concrete Helmet

    Concrete Helmet Hook, Line, and Sinker
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    • Taco Gratis

      Taco Gratis Well-Known Member

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      We're looking at moving and buying a place in the Johnson County, KS area (currently renting in FL).

      I really don't want to get stuck with a place that drops 20% or more in value within a year of moving in.

      We're not looking to be in KC long-term. Just want to spend 2-3 years with our grandkids while they're young.

      If we do buy, will probably look at something that needs updating and that we can rent once we've moved out if selling it doesn't make sense..
       
      • Concrete Helmet

        Concrete Helmet Hook, Line, and Sinker
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        That would be the smartest thing you could do. We were due for a slight downturn in the market within the next 2 to 3 years anyway but due to current events it will be sooner than later. Hopefully builders run out of money or investors back out before this takes off too much.
        In your situation you will still be better off buying even if you have to hold and rent when you move. I'd still approach it with an investment strategy if you're financing by putting 30% down. At that point it's almost like having someone(renters) buying you a bond that you can cash out in 5-10 years or whenever you're ready...plus the tax write offs are nice if you're are still working.
         
        • Gator By Marriage

          Gator By Marriage A convert to Gatorism
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          Do you see this happening in the coastal areas of Florida as well? I am asking because Mrs. G is interested in moving back to the west coast of Florida at some point (she grew up in St. Pete) and we have started looking at land and houses in the Pinellas and Pasco areas. Our hope is something on the water with gulf or bay access. The vacant lots we've looked at have really appreciated over the last couple of years.
           
          • bradgator2

            bradgator2 Rioting
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            I am ready to build a detached garage/barn/workshop. It aint happening in my county in Florida. Builders are WAY too busy for a "small" project like that.

            Several new lot owners in my neighborhood are ready to custom build and their projects are 6 months behind before the ground is even touched.

            One person is ready to build a pool. They are scheduled a full year out.
             
            • Concrete Helmet

              Concrete Helmet Hook, Line, and Sinker
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              I'm not talking about one off's, custom builds and such. What you and your neighbors are experiencing is the end of the Trump economic era. If subdivisions start popping up in the next 6 months it will be an absolute abortion within 18-24 month's...welcome back 2008-2014...
               
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              • Concrete Helmet

                Concrete Helmet Hook, Line, and Sinker
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                Florida in general will be one of the last hit....unless they start overbuilding again. Also the more upscale the area the less effect this will have. But no one will be immune to the effects. The upside is it will be a buyers market...whomever is left.
                 
                • BMF

                  BMF Bad Mother....
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                  CH, I think we're going to see a downturn, but nothing like 2006-2010. It'll be much more mild. Builders are going to take a hit that are building large subdivisions, but more than likely they'll have to cut their prices and take less of a profit.

                  Another thing right now is building costs are through the roof due to the cost of lumber and other construction supplies.

                  There is no doubt going to be another stimulus, which will continue to protect foreclosures and dead beat renters. But once that ends...the flood gates will open.

                  I'm looking to move - hopefully - within 6-9 months. I think I'll be safe here in the DC area and if prices are still high in Florida when we move we plan to rent. I'm sitting on a ton of cash (for me, at least) and we're ready to buy at least three rental properties in the $300K-$400K range. I'm hoping for a downturn so that will be more like $250K-$350K.
                   
                  • BMF

                    BMF Bad Mother....
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                    I'd hold off right now, if you can wait. Building costs are super high and everyone (builders) are busy AF. Give it until next summer and you may be in a much better position. Concrete is right that there's a bust coming (again - I don't think it's going to be as severe as 2006-2010, but it's coming).
                     
                  • bradgator2

                    bradgator2 Rioting
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                    Oh absolutely. I really dont have a choice anyway. But I have zero issues waiting a year or two.
                     
                    • BMF

                      BMF Bad Mother....
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                      My wife wants to move to the Tampa/St Pete area. I'd prefer to build, but she wants an older (renovated) home (like in the Hyde Park area of Tampa - or downtown area of St. Pete). I want a lot on an ally so I can build a garage apartment on it - to rent out for revenue. I told her if we move by next summer we're likely going to rent, and she seems fine with it. So we'll see.
                       
                    • Pablos Tunnel

                      Pablos Tunnel Well-Known Member
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                      I am bullish on equities for about a year out. Then I will start pulling back. RE is going to drop first. There will be a good buyers market in two years. With these low rates and central banks keeping them low for the next 2-3 years things will get dicey. Then there will be a massive thud! The wuhan virus costs will come home in 18 months. Unemployment will spike, defaults will spike, pensions will be even more underfunded ........
                      Keep your powder dry an be patient.
                       
                      • Detroitgator

                        Detroitgator Well-Known Member
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                        Welcome to Santa Rosa County... where a whole slew of new subdivisions in the first time home buyer price range were approved about 12 months ago, and ground just started breaking in the last three months... or even just this week in terms of a big 700 home one that they started clearing trees and burning the brush piles.

                        This is EXACTLY what happened last time... cleared land, paved streets with lights and drainage... and all of them either folded or had literally 20 houses built/occupied in 500+ home developments for about 5+ years before others started building their homes. Those developments from 10+ years ago are JUST nearing full buildout now, and now this whole new round of ground breaking has started again.

                        @Concrete Helmet all part of the "V" shaped recovery, right? ;)
                         
                        #13 Detroitgator, Nov 18, 2020
                        Last edited: Nov 18, 2020
                        • Concrete Helmet

                          Concrete Helmet Hook, Line, and Sinker
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                          Tou f vckin che.....that was all based on Trump not getting cheated....just checked the powder keg and we're on very dry ground this timec and looking for a place to stash as well as first crack at thousands of prospective defaults...BUUUUUTTTT....The poor bast@rds that are leaving to find a better future put a hurting on our local wage rate when half of them are jobless a year or so from now.....In short, regardless of rates refi's will be cut in half. Business margins are what they are so in my case that means I'll be the sole employee of our investment company...yeah my title will be Facility Manager....ya know, the fat ass old crippled guy that's going to be crawling around fixing sprinkler heads, changing light bulbs, and unclogging the tenants toilets when they stuff crack pipes down them....joy to the f vckin world....I had gotten so used to my desk job and f vcking off on Gatorchatter over the last 5 or 6 years too...This didn't have to happen just yet:finger:
                           
                          • Gator By Marriage

                            Gator By Marriage A convert to Gatorism
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                            DC is probably the most recession proof city in the US. Last time around things didn’t go down much except at the very high end. Property just kinda stayed stagnant before going again (where it quickly made up for lost time).
                             
                            • Detroitgator

                              Detroitgator Well-Known Member
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                              The guy i learned real estate investing from had this as one of his few hard set rules: find area with stable employment and you can't beat the FEDERAL govt for that... so I agree, DC is very safe... it's also very safe because the vast majority of non-Federal employee jobs are tied directly to Federal spending, and that doesn't go away either. It's why I always though Huntsville was the perfect place to start investing about 15 years ago. For non-govt job areas, he talked about towns that had big power generating plants, or the few locations nationwide that have one of the giant Budweiser facilities... also recession proof. Rome, GA was good for that.
                               
                            • Gator By Marriage

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                              Exactly.
                               
                              • Concrete Helmet

                                Concrete Helmet Hook, Line, and Sinker
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                                You'd think they would build one close to me by now....:lol:
                                 
                                • FireFoley

                                  FireFoley Senior Member
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                                  Just like what happened in southwest Florida in places in the middle of the everglades that had no name basically, like something called Lehigh Acres, etc. that all of sudden had 5000 3BR/2BA 1700 sq. ft homes that went half built. People came in years after and bought 10, 20, 30 houses at a time sight unseen. Blackstone bought over 100K homes nationwide. Now you have a company like Invitation Homes buying homes in suburbs and renting them to goofs who do not want to own but moved to the suburbs. What happens when the WOO TANG CLAN or WOO FLU is gone and those guys want to take their ball and go back to a condo in the city? Patience, Grasshopper, Patience.
                                   
                                  • BMF

                                    BMF Bad Mother....
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                                    Here's a good video about a possible 2021 housing crash:

                                     

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