Buckle up, the crash is sooner rather than later

[Concrete Helmet]

I could be wrong but I think the real issue here is the Treasury's back is against the wall with what's going on in regional banking sector...about 80% of them are technically insolvent and in the case of more failures they won't be able to do what they just did for the 4 that have failed since March....print hush money and give it to Jamie Demon and Chase to purchase them......

Yes if the Treasury cannot operate for a period of time during another failure the contagion could literally cause a banking demolition.....This is the reason Grandma Yellen is looking like she sh!t her Depends when she mentions June 1st...

 

[Concrete Helmet]

We do not need or want states coining their own currency.

I'm not totally sure about this....it might be just the thing to shake the hold of derivatives off the metals markets....my guess it would probably double the price of physical Gold and quadruple if not more the price of silver....even if for a short period of time.

I wouldn't want to be hold holding GLD or any other metal derivative though....

 

[Alumni Guy]

Had a client come in the other day wondering if he could get out of his rather significant commercial loan (I’ll spoil the story: he can’t. Be careful what you sign)

It was a variable rate loan tied directly to 1 month LIBOR.

In peak of covid, when our rates were below 3% 1 month LIBOR was as low as .083. As of April this year it’s 4.95.

For some reason, maybe to make underwriters and lawyers feel smart, a lot of commercial variable rate loans are tied into LIBOR. A lot of businesses took advantage of the low LIBOR rates and all of Uncle Sam’s handouts to grow their businesses. Now that the free money spigot has turned off and rates are up, a lot of businesses will default and go under.

The rumors of an impending commercial real estate bubble bursting looks valid.

 

[Concrete Helmet]

Had a client come in the other day wondering if he could get out of his rather significant commercial loan (I’ll spoil the story: he can’t. Be careful what you sign)

It was a variable rate loan tied directly to 1 month LIBOR.

In peak of covid, when our rates were below 3% 1 month LIBOR was as low as .083. As of April this year it’s 4.95.

For some reason, maybe to make underwriters and lawyers feel smart, a lot of commercial variable rate loans are tied into LIBOR. A lot of businesses took advantage of the low LIBOR rates and all of Uncle Sam’s handouts to grow their businesses. Now that the free money spigot has turned off and rates are up, a lot of businesses will default and go under.

The rumors of an impending commercial real estate bubble bursting looks valid.

Great point.....if some of these companies can't continue to refi into lower rates it's effects their earnings and when there is no other cost cutting option available, they will be forced to cut their workforce or go out of business....some will likely end up doing both.

 

[abefroman]

 

[abefroman]

 

[GatorCatsi]

 

[Concrete Helmet]

View attachment 58462

I think someone forgot to adjust for material, labor and cost of capital increases.... Manufacturing has been falling off the side of a cliff for 9-12 months now....

 

[GatorCatsi]

I think someone forgot to adjust for material and labor increases....Manufacturing has been falling off the side of a cliff for 9-12 months now....

How much of the near-doubling in construction spending for manufacturing since (eyeballing chart) mid 2021 do we attribute to material and labor?

 

[FireFoley]

My biggest takeaway from the chart is from the verbiage above where it says "I am hopeful that this will also boost productivity"

Productivity has been on the decline for years and years and continues so. Every time they mention some new tech or building boom they say productivity will increase. And every time is goes lower. Just this AM I heard somewhere say on the blower that firms are still hiring yet these new hires are not being productive. Just look around each day you are out and about and see how productive most of the workforce is.

 

[Concrete Helmet]

My biggest takeaway from the chart is from the verbiage above where it says "I am hopeful that this will also boost productivity"

 

[LoyalGatorFan]

My Roth has lost 77k this year....FML....recovering economy my ass

 

[URGatorBait]

My Roth has lost 77k this year....FML....recovering economy my ass

I've been gaining back money this year, so you may need to re-evaluate what you're invested in

 

[Gator By Marriage]

I've been gaining back money this year, so you may need to re-evaluate what you're invested in

Just thinking the same thing. I’ve recovered quite a bit this year. It’s been a decent ride, but I admit to being very nervous and it won’t take me much to bail into cash!

 

[LoyalGatorFan]

I've been gaining back money this year, so you may need to re-evaluate what you're invested in

Well it's all in the hands of my financial guy whom I trust but damn....maybe you are right

 

[URGatorBait]

Well it's all in the hands of my financial guy whom I trust but damn....maybe you are right

Don't assume they are just going to fix it for you all the time.
You may have to occasionally request them to re-evaluate your holdings as markets shift.
And if you still aren't happy with it, then seek another avenue for your money, different institution, etc.

 

[FireFoley]

Don't assume they are just going to fix it for you all the time.
You may have to occasionally request them to re-evaluate your holdings as markets shift.
And if you still aren't happy with it, then seek another avenue for your money, different institution, etc.

Totally agree. If you have a paid FA then they are Fiduciarys and should be evaluating daily. Now look I am not up triple digts this year like some people who own 7 or 8 stocks, but just being in the S&P 500 would have netted 10% or so with no effort and you could have had 5+% in cash with zero risk. Maybe the FA went for what was sizzling last year (Oil and Pharma) and they have been awful this year. Or maybe he is in some of the intricate yield curve plays. Yes I know all about them personally and they are losers this year.

 

[LoyalGatorFan]

Thanks guys....really appreciate it...I certainly trust my FA as I have had him for many years but like you stated maybe I should make sure he is monitoring like he should be.....not to make this political but my investment peaked at the end of 2020 right before Trump left, flatlined for 2021 and 2022, then has nose dived this year

 

[URGatorBait]

Thanks guys....really appreciate it...I certainly trust my FA as I have had him for many years but like you stated maybe I should make sure he is monitoring like he should be.....not to make this political but my investment peaked at the end of 2020 right before Trump left, flatlined for 2021 and 2022, then has nose dived this year

Sounds like his strategy is stuck in 21-22 then and it's time to update, and sounds like he did a good job saving you from a plummet during that time, he just hasn't adjusted, perhaps, or miscalculated what this year held.
He should be on top of it, however, no one is perfect, give him a shout, I'm sure he'll look it over again for you.

 

[Concrete Helmet]

give him a shout, I'm sure he'll look it over again for you.

Shout my ass.....if my sh!t was down 77K I'd want to know if the guy still had a pulse