Dan Mullen is one lucky SOB

[Zambo]

AND YET, nothing you guys keep saying woulda happened happened. In fact, it damn near cost us the game, as has happened countless times in football when coaches make the same stupid decision. But yeah, you guys are right.

 

[Captain Sasquatch]

I'm with Zambo. Kick the extra points until you absolutely have to go for two (unless of course your strategy is to go for two at random times like Oregon has done for years).

Vandy screwed themselves over against Purdue earlier this year by going for two. They scored a touchdown to bring the deficit to 12. Had they kicked the PAT, they would have been down 11, still ensuring that they can tie it with a FG and a TD with the conversion. But they missed the two point conversion, leaving the deficit at 12. So then they were forced to have to score two more touchdowns no matter what. It didn't end up mattering because Purdue pulled away, but still. Kick the PAT until you don't have any choice.

 

[ThreatMatrix]

Heart felt opinions aside. Stats are on the side of going for two.

 

[Zambo]

Heart felt opinions aside. Stats are on the side of going for two.

Actually it says that a team who isn't that good at 2 point conversions should kick the ball in that situation. The vertical line represents the continuum between a team that is great at 2 point conversions and a team that is bad, with the lower end of the line being bad. I'm gonna say we aren't that good at punching the ball in from the 3 yard line right now with our terrible run blocking. The area I circled shows a below average chance of success dictates a kick right there. If someone wants to opine that we are good at 2 pt conversions, I think I can scrape up some data somewhere that shows otherwise.

 

[ufgator812]

I’ve been critical of Mullen. Still am. Even though the “books” & “charts” say to go for 2, if we make ‘em he gets praise, miss as we did and he gets hammered....life of a head football coach... I’m OK with it...

 

[stephenPE]

Let me put this anal obsession with go for one or two to bed. A little gator history lesson is in order.
Gators are in the FIRST New Years Day Bowl. SOS is the QB. We are down 20-0 going into the 4th Qtr. VS
Misery in the SUGAR BOWL.........when that was a BFD...........SOS hits Jack Harper (good Lakeland Boy) for a TD and they go for two.
Dont get it. Get the ball back and score again. Go for two and miss again. Stop Misery and get the ball back and
score AGAIN............now they gotta go for two to tie. Dont get it again. Lose 20-18 in their first BIG time bowl game.
SOS wins MVP of the game (a first for the losing QB or any player from losing team)
Here is some irony. Wayne Barfield the kicker owned the NCAA record for most XP kicks without a miss. Over 50 I think.
The next day in the Tampa Tribune had a poem about it for Ray Graves.
Here lies Ray Graves
Whom everybody knew
Loved by one and all
Until he went for two.

In the third quarter, Bates kicked a 34-yard field goal as Missouri led 20–0 at the end of three. Florida attempted to make a furious comeback in the fourth quarter. Steve Spurrier threw a 22-yard touchdown pass to halfback Jack Harper as Florida got within 20–6. Spurrier threw another 21-yard touchdown pass to end Charles Casey as Florida got within 20–12. Spurrier scored himself from two yards out, as the score became 20–18. Florida failed on three consecutive two-point conversion attempts, and had they just kicked the extra points, they may have ended with a win.

OMG here is irony I JUST learned.

Missouri honored the 1966 Sugar Bowl champion Tigers in the 2015 season, bringing the team to midfield at halftime of their 24-10 win over South Carolina, then coached by Spurrier. [1]

 

[Sec14Gator]

I agree with BMF and Crete on this one. I would have gone for two under those circumstances. If Tebow had been our QB perhaps not, but we had no idea at that point if we’d ever sniff the end zone again.

BMF is correct, In the 4th quarter the difference between being down 5 and 4 is no difference at all both are a touchdown, you try to make it a 3 point game. You aren't counting it by points but by types of scores, and you can't count on a safety.

Another piece Zambo is missing is his presumption you’ll make neither 2 pt conversions. The stats are about 50/50 over many years. So, going for it the first time, at that time in the game, is not “chasing” points. It’s giving optionality to kick for a tie or know you need a Td. Then, you still have a reasonable chance (with a better call) for getting the points back.

 

[Sec14Gator]

NewI'm with Zamb

You got hit too much in the head. Waiting until the last moment (a move done all the time when down 15), doesn’t make sense either. It just makes you live the rest of he game in ignorance of what you need to win. Going the first time allows you to know how you need to manage the rest of the game.

Actually it says that a team who isn't that good at 2 point conversions should kick the ball in that situation.
View attachment 16729

“Isn’t that good”? The few teams below that statistical line would at best be extreme outlier bad at going for two, not simply “not that good”. One of the few things Mullen’s offense does provide is a reasonable odds on a 2-3 yard play. Look at our 4th down percentage.

This discussion has become silly. Even Sas now believes more in a football “adam and eve” than the evidence of evolution.

Assuming 50/50 success rate, the odds of getting at least 1 of the 2 pts convesation is 75%. That seems worthwhile to potentially gain the chance for a fg sending the game to overtime rather than needing a TD to win.

 

[Zambo]

You got hit too much in the head. Waiting until the last moment (a move done all the time when down 15), doesn’t make sense either. It just makes you live the rest of he game in ignorance of what you need to win. Going the first time allows you to know how you need to manage the rest of the game.



“Isn’t that good”? The few teams below that statistical line would at best be extreme outlier bad at going for two, not simply “not that good”. One of the few things Mullen’s offense does provide is a reasonable odds on a 2-3 yard play. Look at our 4th down percentage.

This discussion has become silly. Even Sas now believes more in a football “adam and eve” than the evidence of evolution.

Assuming 50/50 success rate, the odds of getting at least 1 of the 2 pts convesation is 75%. That seems worthwhile to potentially gain the chance for a fg sending the game to overtime rather than needing a TD to win.

We would need to make 2 out of our next three attempts to climb to the 40%. Listen dude, it wasn’t a fluke that the game played out the way it did, it was statistically probable that there would be more than one or two scores left in the game.

 

[ThreatMatrix]

Actually it says that a team who isn't that good at 2 point conversions should kick the ball in that situation. The vertical line represents the continuum between a team that is great at 2 point conversions and a team that is bad, with the lower end of the line being bad. I'm gonna say we aren't that good at punching the ball in from the 3 yard line right now with our terrible run blocking. The area I circled shows a below average chance of success dictates a kick right there. If someone wants to opine that we are good at 2 pt conversions, I think I can scrape up some data somewhere that shows otherwise.
View attachment 16729

We're good at 4th down conversions.

 

[ufgator812]

Let me put this anal obsession with go for one or two to bed. A little gator history lesson is in order.
Gators are in the FIRST New Years Day Bowl. SOS is the QB. We are down 20-0 going into the 4th Qtr. VS
Misery in the SUGAR BOWL.........when that was a BFD...........SOS hits Jack Harper (good Lakeland Boy) for a TD and they go for two.
Dont get it. Get the ball back and score again. Go for two and miss again. Stop Misery and get the ball back and
score AGAIN............now they gotta go for two to tie. Dont get it again. Lose 20-18 in their first BIG time bowl game.
SOS wins MVP of the game (a first for the losing QB or any player from losing team)
Here is some irony. Wayne Barfield the kicker owned the NCAA record for most XP kicks without a miss. Over 50 I think.
The next day in the Tampa Tribune had a poem about it for Ray Graves.
Here lies Ray Graves
Whom everybody knew
Loved by one and all
Until he went for two.



OMG here is irony I JUST learned.

Awesome...and Ray Graves was a true Gator. I talked with him many times at Reitz Union. No one was ever around him and I’d ALWAYS look him up, right or wrong....he seemed to thoroughly enjoy speaking with me about the good ‘ol days and the present. I get teared up even thinking about it. He was a true gentleman but seemed to delight in my hatred of uga ( f v c k uga). No Ray Graves, no Spurrier. No Spurrier and we’d be kentucky.....

 

[Zambo]

We're good at 4th down conversions.

Not the same as going for a score at the 3 yard line by ANY stretch.

 

[Oscar the G]

I'm gonna say we aren't that good at punching the ball in from the 3 yard line right now with our terrible run blocking.

what about from the 2? [Edit - didn't even realize it was the 3 yard line].

I think you guys are looking at it all wrong anyways. Theres no wrong or right, theres simply execution. And personal opinion. Fsu might have won last week because a team didn't go for 2. I've got no problem if the coach trusts his guys enough to go for it. A bigger issue for me is why the defense didn't make a stand at the end (or throughout the game). And why the O didn't score more TDs.

 

[Zambo]

theres simply execution. And personal opinion. Fsu might have won last week because a team didn't go for 2..

Honestly no idea what point you’re making. Obviously there are plenty of times when you have to go for two. This discussion is about doing it with 13 minutes left in the game.

 

[ThreatMatrix]

Not the same as going for a score at the 3 yard line by ANY stretch.

3 yard line?

 

[Zambo]

Oh sorry the 2 or whatever the stripe is at.

Does that change anything?

 

[Swamp Queen]

Oh sorry the 2 or whatever the stripe is at.

Does that change anything?

 

[ThreatMatrix]

Oh sorry the 2 or whatever the stripe is at.

Does that change anything?

Not for you.

 

[Marine1]

Charts, odds, percentages, etc. All I know is what we actually did was win the game. We won. We know we did. What I don’t know is if we kicked the xtra point would we have won. Maybe they then run the kickoff back for a score. Maybe Trask goes down next possession. Nobody knows what would have happened. But we know what DID happen so I am 100% in favor of how it played out.

Now I hope the staff is having there own discussion on how they should handle a similar situation in the future.

It wouldn’t surprise me a bit if they know exactly how they would/should handle the scenario but DM simply played a hunch. He wouldn’t be the first coach to do so. Took a gamble against the grain based on what he saw and felt at the time.

 

[Okeechobee Joe]

Let me put this anal obsession with go for one or two to bed. A little gator history lesson is in order.
Gators are in the FIRST New Years Day Bowl. SOS is the QB. We are down 20-0 going into the 4th Qtr. VS
Misery in the SUGAR BOWL.........when that was a BFD...........SOS hits Jack Harper (good Lakeland Boy) for a TD and they go for two.
Dont get it. Get the ball back and score again. Go for two and miss again. Stop Misery and get the ball back and
score AGAIN............now they gotta go for two to tie. Dont get it again. Lose 20-18 in their first BIG time bowl game.
SOS wins MVP of the game (a first for the losing QB or any player from losing team)
Here is some irony. Wayne Barfield the kicker owned the NCAA record for most XP kicks without a miss. Over 50 I think.
The next day in the Tampa Tribune had a poem about it for Ray Graves.
Here lies Ray Graves
Whom everybody knew
Loved by one and all
Until he went for two.



OMG here is irony I JUST learned.

Stephen, every time I see where a coach goes for the two points too early I always go back to this game. We would have won that game 21 - 20.