This is a good read:
Does Texas A&M have a $75 million mess on its hands?
First and 10: Does Texas A&M have a $75 million mess on its hands?
Seventy-five million, guaranteed.
$75 million.
So far, all that gets those deep-pocket, ten-gallon hats at Texas A&M who shelled out all that dough is a nice, air-conditioned suite to sit and pout (again) on game day.
When you’re spending that kind of capital, you want return on your investment. So far, the Jimbo Fisher experiment at Texas A&M has been like one of those fancy, big-name mutual funds that looks good – until you delve into its history and uncover the inconsistencies.
“We’re not a bad football team,” Fisher told the assembled media after last weekend’s stunning home loss to Auburn.
Bad isn’t the argument. Bad can be fixed.
But track record – the ability to look at something and see undeniable, tangible trends – that’s another story. And it can no longer be denied.
Without generational quarterback Jameis Winston, Fisher’s coaching record vs. Power 5 teams is 23-17. Fisher’s record at FSU after Winston, a bright supernova who played 2 seasons: 25-12 overall, 14-10 in the ACC.
Woof.
So are you really surprised that Texas A&M in Year 2 under Fisher, while staring at the first of 3 mega SEC West Division games, allowed Auburn — with a true freshman quarterback making his first road start – to walk away with a relatively easy win despite gaining 299 yards of total offense?
Is it really that shocking that Auburn threw for only 106 yards, had one run of 57 yards on a reverse for a touchdown and averaged a measly 4.5 yards per play – and the game was never in doubt?
Or that Texas A&M played so poorly in the easiest of 3 critical SEC West games, with LSU and Alabama still on the horizon (to say nothing of a game at East Division heavyweight Georgia, too)?
How many times do we have to hear the axiom from the great Bill Parcells to believe it?
You are what your record says you are.
Jimbo Fisher is a good football coach. He developed 3 1st-round picks at quarterback at FSU (Christian Ponder and EJ Manuel are out of the NFL, and Winston), and recruited a treasure trove of elite players on both sides of the ball.
For that, FSU got 1 national title (2013, a game Auburn could have easily won) and a spot in the first College Football Playoff (a 39-point loss to Oregon). That’s a career for some programs; that’s not the impetus to offer the largest guaranteed contract in the history of college football.
The problem is – in the parlance of our Texas brethren — the hay is in the barn. You’ve invested the money. All you can hope for now is change and a deviation from the norm of past seasons.
Texas A&M doesn’t have a generational quarterback like Winston. It doesn’t even have a 1st-round pick like Ponder or Manuel.
Kellen Mond is solid, and in most conferences not called the SEC, might be enough to get you a division championship and the ability to play for a conference championship.
Knowing that and understanding the trend lines of Fisher’s coaching career, Texas A&M spent $75 million on the hope that Fisher finds an elite quarterback.
That and an air-conditioned suite on game day.
2. Finding the guy
Think about this if you were part of the group that chipped in on the $75 million: Texas A&M needs an upset – and to win every game it’s supposed to win — to avoid a 7-5 record.
Kevin Sumlin was fired in 2017, and given a nice parting gift of $10.5 million (which raises that Jimbo investment to $85.5 million), after going 7-5.
Fear not, Mr. Ten Gallon, we’ve seen what Fisher can do with an elite quarterback. He has a commitment from Haynes King, the No. 1 dual-threat quarterback in the 2020 recruiting class, and from Eli Stowers, the No. 5 dual-threat quarterback in the 2021 class.
In the 6 years at FSU without Winston, FSU’s quarterbacks averaged 23 TDs and 9 INTs. Mond had 24 TDs and 9 INTs in his first season under Fisher, and is on pace this season to hit 28 TDs and 12 INTs.
Again, track record. You are who you are at the most important position on the field.
Until Fisher finds his elite or generational quarterback, this is where Texas A&M will linger. Good enough to maybe win a game or two a season that matter, but not good enough to win the West Division and the SEC.
3. Earning your contract, The Epilogue
Don’t think what’s going in College Station isn’t gaining traction in the coaching profession.
There are two ways most coaches look at the Fisher/Texas A&M marriage: Fisher’s crazy-large contract was good for everyone. The rising tide lifts all boats.
What he did to earn the contract, however, is another story.
“You want to really impress me? Be the guy that wins no matter who is under center,” one Power 5 coach told me last Saturday night. “Urban (Meyer) for all his faults, won a national title with Chris Leak.”
To take that a step further: If you’re not Alabama under Nick Saban, you’re not winning the SEC without a generational or elite quarterback.
Since 2008, here are the quarterbacks who led their respective teams to SEC championships in non-Alabama years:
- 2008: Tim Tebow, Florida
- 2010: Cam Newton, Auburn
- 2011: Jarrett Lee and Jordan Jefferson, LSU
- 2013: Nick Marshall, Auburn
- 2017: Jake Fromm, Georgia
Clearly the 2011 season is the outlier. An LSU team that was so loaded everywhere on the field except quarterback, it was able to win the league through sheer talent alone (then lost in the BCS National Championship Game rematch to Alabama).
Tebow and Newton are 2 of the best quarterbacks in college football history. Marshall was an elite dual-threat quarterback who needed a prayer and a miracle (kick-6) to lead the Tigers to the SEC Championship, and Fromm has the potential to leave Athens as the greatest quarterback in school history.