Napier’s first full offseason thread

[t-gator]

He did say they evaluated 24 guys. He said Paul Chryst lauded Mertz’s work ethic. He noted his physical tools and ability. He didn’t say Mertz was their top target, but he obviously met their evaluation standards. There are no sure bets among the QB transfers.

I’m hopeful that Billy can coach & scheme Mertz into better decisions, and our WRs can be better targets than what he has known.

Curious who may get added at QB in May. Wonder how Max Brown is progressing.

I averaged out what Billy's fully entrenched starting qb's average stats are. 2685 yards 19 tds 8 ints with a %59 completion percentage. Wich isn't bad at all really. Especially simce he hasn't had any studs to work with. If mertz can just hit Billy's average we should win 8-9 games.

 

[GatorTruth133]

I averaged out what Billy's fully entrenched starting qb's average stats are. 2685 yards 19 tds 8 ints with a %59 completion percentage. Wich isn't bad at all really. Especially simce he hasn't had any studs to work with. If mertz can just hit Billy's average we should win 8-9 games.

What Billy’s QB’s average ground production? Does not having one thing for a defense to worry about make an offense harder to defend?

 

[t-gator]

What Billy’s QB’s average ground production? Does not having one thing for a defense to worry about make an offense harder to defend?

I didn't look it up. I figured it was pointless because mertz ain't a dt qb. If you're asking me what's harder to defend a pocket passer or a dt it's definitely gonna depend on the qb

 

[GatorTruth133]

I didn't look it up. I figured it was pointless because mertz ain't a dt qb. If you're asking me what's harder to defend a pocket passer or a dt it's definitely gonna depend on the qb

Well, if Nape usually uses a dt QB and that’s no longer there, there would be a point. Escapability does make a difference. And it’s not just a question of QB, it’s also a question of scheme. Looks like Lewis in 20 and 21 had over 300 yards. Curious to what all those read options look like with Mertz.

 

[Joegator96]

Curious to what all those read options look like with Mertz.

Dive, dive, dive

 

[oxrageous]

Dive, dive, dive

 

[Joegator96]

I'm starting to think you have never even sniffed a sense of humor. In fact I'm sure of it.

 

[t-gator]

Well, if Nape usually uses a dt QB and that’s no longer there, there would be a point. Escapability does make a difference. And it’s not just a question of QB, it’s also a question of scheme. Looks like Lewis in 20 and 21 had over 300 yards. Curious to what all those read options look like with Mertz.

Wilkins and Parker weren't really runners . Wilkins is probably best he's coached. He did rack up 282 yards on the ground in his year for Napier though. I don't really think he has to have dt qb for his system.

 

[oxrageous]

I'm starting to think you have never even sniffed a sense of humor. In fact I'm sure of it.

When you tell a joke, be sure to let us know.

 

[soflagator]

When you tell a joke, be sure to let us know.

 

[abefroman]

I averaged out what Billy's fully entrenched starting qb's average stats are. 2685 yards 19 tds 8 ints with a %59 completion percentage. Wich isn't bad at all really. Especially simce he hasn't had any studs to work with. If mertz can just hit Billy's average we should win 8-9 games.

 

[Lucius]

If Mertz can play somewhat better with a better surrounding cast, next season could actually be decent.

Hypothetically:
205/336 (61% CMP) 2520 YDS 24 TD 10 INT 141.63 Rating over 12 games

This would mean 210 YPG Passing with 7.5 YPA

Assuming 70 Offensive plays/game, 42 Run/28 Pass (60/40 Run/Pass)

42 Run x 5.3 YPC = 223 YPG Rushing

Total offense = 433 YPG, that would be where Penn State was last season at #34 in the NCAA

Couple that with an above average defense (top 40 or so), and an 8-4 or 9-3 season is very doable.

For comparison, in 2018, the Gators were #26 in total defense and #42 in total offense

188/322 (58.4% CMP) 2457 YDS 7.6 Y/A 24 TD 6 INT 143.4 Rating

These were Feleipe Franks stats in 2018, slightly lower CMP% with fewer interceptions, but very similar

That year, UF went 9-3 with a good bowl win, I think this roster is capable of similar results.

This offensive production is just good, not amazing, and completely achievable. Exceeding these numbers is possible as well.

 

[Theologator]

If Mertz can play somewhat better with a better surrounding cast, next season could actually be decent.

Hypothetically:
205/336 (61% CMP) 2520 YDS 24 TD 10 INT 141.63 Rating over 12 games

This would mean 210 YPG Passing with 7.5 YPA

Assuming 70 Offensive plays/game, 42 Run/28 Pass (60/40 Run/Pass)

42 Run x 5.3 YPC = 223 YPG Rushing

Total offense = 433 YPG, that would be where Penn State was last season at #34 in the NCAA

Couple that with an above average defense (top 40 or so), and an 8-4 or 9-3 season is very doable.

For comparison, in 2018, the Gators were #26 in total defense and #42 in total offense

188/322 (58.4% CMP) 2457 YDS 7.6 Y/A 24 TD 6 INT 143.4 Rating

These were Feleipe Franks stats in 2018, slightly lower CMP% with fewer interceptions, but very similar

That year, UF went 9-3 with a good bowl win, I think this roster is capable of similar results.

This offensive production is just good, not amazing, and completely achievable. Exceeding these numbers is possible as well.

View attachment 54329

Welcome aboard!

Thoughtful post. Hopefully we’ll have better balance than 60/40 run with more play action passing than Mertz had at WI. I think he only had 9-10 play action passes all of last year.

In any case, we need to see progress. 8-9 wins would be that, and progress during the year would show improvement. Last year’s collapse at Vandy was horrible, worse after having gotten some positives vs. aTm and SC.

Progress on the field plus building the 2024 class into a top 3-5 contender would be good steps.

 

[Detroitgator]

If Mertz can play somewhat better with a better surrounding cast, next season could actually be decent.

Hypothetically:
205/336 (61% CMP) 2520 YDS 24 TD 10 INT 141.63 Rating over 12 games

This would mean 210 YPG Passing with 7.5 YPA

Assuming 70 Offensive plays/game, 42 Run/28 Pass (60/40 Run/Pass)

42 Run x 5.3 YPC = 223 YPG Rushing

Total offense = 433 YPG, that would be where Penn State was last season at #34 in the NCAA

Couple that with an above average defense (top 40 or so), and an 8-4 or 9-3 season is very doable.

For comparison, in 2018, the Gators were #26 in total defense and #42 in total offense

188/322 (58.4% CMP) 2457 YDS 7.6 Y/A 24 TD 6 INT 143.4 Rating

These were Feleipe Franks stats in 2018, slightly lower CMP% with fewer interceptions, but very similar

That year, UF went 9-3 with a good bowl win, I think this roster is capable of similar results.

This offensive production is just good, not amazing, and completely achievable. Exceeding these numbers is possible as well.

View attachment 54329

The crazy stat that was in one of the Mertz breakdowns that someone posted was the WI ran the ball like 60%+ of the time on both 1st and 2nd downs which always left Mertz in an obvious passing situation on 3rd down.

 

[Lucius]

Looking at the past 4 classes for Wisconson on 247, they only signed one 4-star WR, who was #376 overall.

The playmakers here should make Mertz job much easier, but this advantage will be somewhat offset by the opposing defenses being better in the SEC.

The key will be the coaching staff maximizing the team's strengths while minimizing weaknesses.

If Mertz is slinging it like Trask, then leaning on the pass game will work great.

If there are struggles with consistency in the pass game (which is a more likely scenario), then focusing on a strong rushing attack will be more effective.

Luckily, the current roster can manage that. Napier will have to analyze which throws Mertz can make routinely and take those shots often.

It is yet to be seen how big Mertz's arsenal is when it comes to throws, but that will likely determine whether the upcoming season's offense is above average, good or very good.

 

[Gator By Marriage]

The crazy stat that was in one of the Mertz breakdowns that someone posted was the WI ran the ball like 60%+ of the time on both 1st and 2nd downs which always left Mertz in an obvious passing situation on 3rd down.

I seem to also remember reading they didn’t do much play action - which seems really odd for a team running that much.

 

[Gatormac2112]

If Mertz can hit a check down routinely I think our offense will be better

 

[SGG]

Nobody can talk themselves into 9-10 wins with a 6 win roster quicker than this group

 

[jdh5484]

Nobody can talk themselves into 9-10 wins with a 6 win roster quicker than this group

Happens every year.

They'll talk themselves into 11-1 as feasible by the time the Utah game gets close.

Afterwards?

 

[Egor's Assistant]

Nobody can talk themselves into 9-10 wins with a 6 win roster quicker than this group

That's 9 wins minimum, Big Ern. You start talking 8 wins or less.... You'll find yourself in mind-camp again right quick.