Game Reset on Dan Mullen

[Swamp Donkey]

It really is remarkable how he’s been able to overcome the odds, don’t you think?

Not really. He isnt beating the odds at all. He has the easiest schedule any Fla coach has ever had. The SEC East is Uga (who bytchslaps Mullinz with ease) and......... I guess Kintucky.

And FSU is basically a directional school now.

Plus he has added one more cupcake to the schedule anyway (12 game regular season).

He is actually just following the odds. The odds are 80% that any random coach you hire will go 10-4 at UF, bc even a horrid recruiter like Butters or Mullinz will land a 10-15 class here.

So even a Butters, Chimp, Mullinz or any other person you hire will be a 4 loss coach at UF.

Zook eould habe been a 4 loss coach with this schedule. Butch Jones, Rat Goof, really anyone you can imagine.

 

[78]

Not really. He isnt beating the odds at all. He has the easiest schedule any Fla coach has ever had. The SEC East is Uga (who bytchslaps Mullinz with ease) and......... I guess Kintucky.

And FSU is basically a directional school now.

Plus he has added one more cupcake to the schedule anyway (12 game regular season).

He is actually just following the odds. The odds are 80% that any random coach you hire will go 10-4 at UF, bc even a horrid recruiter like Butters or Mullinz will land a 10-15 class here.

So even a Butters, Chimp, Mullinz or any other person you hire will be a 4 loss coach at UF.

Zook eould habe been a 4 loss coach with this schedule. Butch Jones, Rat Goof, really anyone you can imagine.

Which is exactly what eventually didn’t happen and led to Muschamp and McElwain being fired. Nice try, though.

 

[Swamp Donkey]

Which is exactly what eventually didn’t happen and led to Muschamp and McElwain being fired. Nice try, though.

No it actually did happen.

In fact Chimp has a 12-2 season (though AD kept saying 12-1) and Butters had two 10-4 seasons.

 

[FireFoley]

The Bama team that beat Miami (and us en route) in the Sugar Bowl was a great team. 13-0 Auburn came much later, long after Spurrier left Florida. You know what the SEC East was throughout the ‘90s. It was Florida, Tennessee and everyone else. The West wasn’t much better. The West became elite while Mullen was at MSU.

But then, you know all that.

My hunch is that was due to the fact that Saban was/is a head coach in the SEC West and has nothing to do with Cousin Eddie. It was either step up or get stepped on. Currently the West is incredible and the LEast is an embarrassment. I contend that the six teams not named Bama in the SEC West, this year only, would all contend for a 2nd place finish in the LEast this year, but maybe not Cowbell, but they would be very competitive in the LEast.. Vandy, UToothless, Mizzou, USCe and probably Kinsucky would finish dead effin last in the SEC West this year.

 

[Swamp Donkey]

It is amazing how insane some of these people get because Douchebag Dan finally broke his 10 month home losing streak.

 

[TLB]

While I respect the effort and appreciate the attempt to get a quantitative (and by extension, qualitative) comparison of Mullen vs earlier successful coaches, I must pause and clearly state

 

[CGgater]

My memory? I told you in the OP how I grabbed the info. Did you forget? I went to a site that listed the game by game yearly results with no mention in the results column of the title. Not a chance I would even try and list all that from memory.

No argument here about SOS’ or Meyer’s greatness. This is about Mullen. Rather than continue to nitpick, why don’t you offer an opinion on that subject?

I offered my opinion in my initial reply. However, I don’t think my follow-up reply is nitpicking to correct your statement that (paraphrasing) “91 was SOS’s first year and UF was on probation” when it was our 1st OFFICIAL SEC Title we were allowed to keep. That’s a rather significant year for Gator Football.

 

[Swamp Donkey]

Always apropos.

 

[Swamp Donkey]

I offered my opinion in my initial reply. However, I don’t think my follow-up reply is nitpicking to correct your statement that (paraphrasing) “91 was SOS’s first year and UF was on probation” when it was our 1st OFFICIAL SEC Title we were allowed to keep. That’s a rather significant year for Gator Football.

SOS won the SEC championship on the field in 1990, with a probation roster, and then offense that would never work in the SEC because you couldn't just score touchdowns by passing the ball around.

The fact that someone in the 80s paid a child support debt doesnt reflect on SoS.

Mullinz has however been penalized for recruiting violations at two different schools.... and still sucks nearly as bad as McElstain in recruiting.

 

[CGgater]

SOS won the SEC championship on the field in 1990, with a probation roster…

Yep, I mentioned that in my initial reply to 78’s “0-2 for SECCG” stat.

 

[neteng]

Maybe we shouldn’t be so hard on Mullen beyond the sometimes snarky attitude, the piss-poor recruiting and the inexplicable gay love for Todd Grantham.

And Hitler was a pretty good guy except for that killing all the Jews and trying to take over the world thing.

Good catch on Spurrier, CG. My calculator wasn’t trusty after all.

This is pure admission that your first post was complete garbage.

 

[ThreatMatrix]

<sigh> last time I'm going through this.
Will Miles has ran the numbers as have I and the results are the same. It's about Jimmie's and Joe's not X's and O's.
I looked at every SEC game from 2005 through 2019 (15 seasons) asking the question did the coach win or lose against teams with more or less talent as determined by the 247 team talent composite which takes into account only the players that are available at the end of fall camp. So it's not biased by guys that were recruited but never made the team or left early etc. AND it accounts for transfers.
You end up with a spread sheet for each year that looks something like this:

Then you figure out the averages and compare each coach to that. There are exceptions. Every coach, even the mighty Saban, performs poorly in their first season. We throw that out. Also the year a coach is fired is a mess, plus it requires figuring out which week they were fired and whose got time for that. Anyway it doesn't change the numbers much but it simplifies things.

In the end you get the two following averages:
Against teams with more talent the average winning % is 27.7%.
Against teams with less talent the average winning % is 77.6%.

So now we can see how all the SEC coaches performed.
There are three coaches that did better against teams with less talent AND against teams with more talent.
Saban 88.1% and 70%
Mullen 87% and 35.4%
Stoops 81.8% and 33.3%

Nobody else did better in both categories.

At first blush Saban's 70% against better teams may seem remarkable but take into account that it is a small sample size - only 10 games in 15 seasons. More importantly bamas opponents with more talent barely had more talent. It's certainly not the difference in talent between UK v UF or UF v bama. Plus Saban's army of assistants don't hurt either.

Barry Odom was very good at beating teams with more talent at 37.9% (the only coach better then the top three - except Saban of course) and was a respectable 75% the rare times he had more talent.

Ogre was 83.3% when he had the talent but a paltry 11.8% when he didn't.
Smart was 78.1% with more talent and is 0% when he doesn't (that being when he plays bama).

TLDR If talent is so obviously and overwhelmingly important to success why the hell doesn't Mullenz put more effort into recruiting.

 

[gatorkev85]

You left out the fact that he should have fired Grantham last year, at the very latest.

That was a part of the making bad coaching decisions.

 

[soflagator]

SOS won the SEC championship on the field in 1990, with a probation roster, and then offense that would never work in the SEC because you couldn't just score touchdowns by passing the ball around.

The fact that someone in the 80s paid a child support debt doesnt reflect on SoS.

Mullinz has however been penalized for recruiting violations at two different schools.... and still sucks nearly as bad as McElstain in recruiting.

I agree that the probation should have little to no bearing. What should, however, is getting absolutely smoked 45-3 by tennessee that year but then claiming the SEC crown because they tied someone later. We’ve agreed numerous times that uga should’ve never been considered for a NC in 2017 after getting blown out. I’m not changing my standards because of team color. Spurrier won many SECs and a NC. I’ve never understood the idea of going “Alabama” and claiming a year that we weren’t recognized and were 42 points away from the team that was.

As I’ve said, the scrutiny with which each coach is viewed is definitely different. YLGator pointed out that we give Spurrier that benefit of the doubt because of his SEC crowns and NC. But that’s all hindsight after 12 years and a huge career here. We’re not there yet with Mullen. So it’s hard to compare. But to be clear, again, I don’t see another SS in DM. The other problem is I don’t see another SS out there period.

 

[Swamp Donkey]

As I’ve said, the scrutiny with which each coach is viewed is definitely different. .

I screwed up the quote but nevertheless, the rules are clear and losing first is losing best.

Hell Booby Bowden grabbed an NC that way.

I was told we were supposed to excuse an early first year loss to Kintucky bc it was his first year. And a near loss to Kintucky in the second year because he was accidentally playing the wrong QB.

We’re not there yet with Mullen..

Really we are. We've had four straight Butters type recruiting classes. He made his own bed.

3 and 4 losses has never been the standard, no matter how anyone tries to parse the schedule and compare only 3 years plus September or whatever, or no matter how loudly some clap about fourth tier bowl games the same time we mock the Voles for finishing second for a decade.

 

[ThreatMatrix]

If Spurrier wanted to beat a team (UGA) he did. If he didn't care that much (FSU) not so much.
But Spurrier is the only coach I would say could beat you with his guys or yours.
Nobody compares to SOS nor should anyone try to compare to him.

 

[Swamp Donkey]

If Spurrier wanted to beat a team (UGA) he did. If he didn't care that much (FSU) not so much.
But Spurrier is the only coach I would say could beat you with his guys or yours.
Nobody compares to SOS nor should anyone try to compare to him.

SOS moved the day off to before the UGA game. It was his priority, for better or for worse. Many years we probably could have beaten UGA just playing the base plays, and better used that prep time for Booby, but only one of those games resulted in a championship trophy.

Champions earn Championships.

Dan Mullinz is 0-12** vs Saban (with three moral victories). SOS beat Saban (in his prime) with Cock talent. Sofla is probably the only dude on the planet who even thinks there is a slight comparison. And I suspect even he doesn't really believe it.

Hell, the field is called SOS field. Maybe a row of portajohns at Cowbell is named Mullinz, on South Alabama terrace.

 

[t-gator]

This board is full of guys so smart and skilled they should be applying for head coaching positions at major universities.
I’ll bet 99% haven’t even coached at the Midget Football level. And like the donkey
have never had a football uniform on in their entire life.
We are soooo priviledged to hear the words of wisdom from these gifted folks.

This is freakishly uncanny. How the hell did you know that I've never coached midget football?

 

[Swamp Donkey]

This is freakishly uncanny. How the hell did you know that I've never coached midget football?

You notice URG has been quite quiet.