Anybody taking advantage of Coronavirus?

[FireFoley]

S&P touches 3300.......

I lightened tremendously last week the day after 4 of the 5 largest stocks in the Nasdaq 100 had earnings. I think 3 of them made all time highs yet the Nasdaq 100 could not make a new high Maybe it did today, I don;t know, but the extreme narrowness of this where 5 stocks make up 50% of the Nasdaq 100 is just too much for me. Perhaps I will be wrong but I can't believe an entire world can survive just from the world wide interweb.

 

[BMF]

I lightened tremendously last week the day after 4 of the 5 largest stocks in the Nasdaq 100 had earnings. I think 3 of them made all time highs yet the Nasdaq 100 could not make a new high Maybe it did today, I don;t know, but the extreme narrowness of this where 5 stocks make up 50% of the Nasdaq 100 is just too much for me. Perhaps I will be wrong but I can't believe an entire world can survive just from the world wide interweb.

Did you see Apple is going to do a 4 for 1 split? That's going to impact the DOW big time.

 

[Detroitgator]

S&P touches 3300.......

As I said... ;)

PS As of last night, no change to any of my posts.

 

[FireFoley]

Did you see Apple is going to do a 4 for 1 split? That's going to impact the DOW big time.

Yes I saw that and AAPL will now have a smaller effect on the Dow after the split b/c the Dow is price weighted. I know that stocks tend to get a bump after the stock split announcement but as we know it does not change one thing about the stock. I think that splitting stocks now a days is pointless given that everyone mostly owns funds and if you want to own individual stocks you can buy fractional shares.

 

[Concrete Helmet]

I'm not sure what's hotter at this time.....titty's or strip funds.....they're up when things are down and they're still semi hard after the swelling....43% and their cousin LT's aren't far behind. Just waitin' til all the jerk offs hit the panic button then their goin' over the top...

 

[BMF]

I've been in Century Aluminum for a few years and it's done nothing but tank....I figured once the trade war w/ China ended it would make a comeback. Well, it's making a huge comeback. It's up 100% or more this year...and is on a tear the last few days. I can't find anything (articles, finance news) on why it's running up (anything recent, like less than a week old). I just sold off all my shares in my Roth (I still have about 550 shares in my brokerage), made ~$550 total (on 1500 shares)...but I have been down HUGE in this stock. I figured I'd hold it and go long...and it paid off. I'm still down about $350 on the brokerage account, so I'm going to hang on there. Honestly, I was really ashamed of myself for getting into this when I did....

 

[FireFoley]

Nice going @BMF, Eastman Kodak now Century Aluminum, so there is still hope for Bethleham Steel and Ford Motor . I hear the drawings for the Edsel are awaiting final approval and will be on the manufacturing line soon, LOL. It is a good story tho, as all we tend to hear about is stuff that people can do on a little device by punching buttons and yet nothing ever seems to get done.

 

[BMF]

S&P is over 3325!!

 

[BMF]

Nice going @BMF, Eastman Kodak now Century Aluminum, so there is still hope for Bethleham Steel and Ford Motor . I hear the drawings for the Edsel are awaiting final approval and will be on the manufacturing line soon, LOL. It is a good story tho, as all we tend to hear about is stuff that people can do on a little device by punching buttons and yet nothing ever seems to get done.

I own some Ford, have had it for years. Down big. One of the last few losers in my account. Unless they go bankrupt, I'm hanging on until it at least gets even....if it ever does!

 

[FireFoley]

I own some Ford, have had it for years. Down big. One of the last few losers in my account. Unless they go bankrupt, I'm hanging on until it at least gets even....if it ever does!

Well look at it this way. If F goes the way of the Edsel, then you will already have wall paper in the form of the stock certificates for that house you eventually buy when you make your move.

 

[BMF]

Well look at it this way. If F goes the way of the Edsel, then you will already have wall paper in the form of the stock certificates for that house you eventually buy when you make your move.

Hey, Ford is up 1.5% today!!!

 

[Detroitgator]

S&P is over 3325!!

We're really looking for it to break above (hopefully close above) 3337 in the next few trading days. That would close the "gap down" in February. If we get that, then it's more up towards 3400+ and the new high. But again, we are now straying into the area where anything could happen at any time.

 

[Detroitgator]

Update:

• Dow Transports has now closed above its June highs. This is bullish in Dow Theory land.
• R2000 also closed above June highs. Also bullish.
• As long as Dow Trans and R2000 stay in their upward channels, still bullish.
• Long term RSI on SP500 is still fine (not overbought).
• Still on track to move up and fill gap to 3337.
• Will likely get small (relatively speaking) pull back to the daily 21 EMA .
• 3280-3250 box is new key support.
• Then could see the final run up to 3453, then i'll dump longs and start shorting when we get around 3400. I may actually start taking 50%+ of profits by the close tomorrow (Friday).
• Then the big drop for "second bite at the apple" if you want to establish truly long positions.
• Again, we are in "toppy land", so be careful.
• Gold, Silver, Bitcoin (and other commodities like oil) will continue to run as long as the Fed is battering the dollar (demolishing actually) by printing currency in order to buy debt... and that will not end any time soon, only increase. Will increase more if Joe get's elected. Trump is wrong, in this bizarro world, Joe is actually stock market positive (because of even more debt). Dollar is sitting on its monthly 100 EMA and it usually makes a strong rebound off that level, if it does, this will cause a pull back in markets, gold, silver, bitcoin (and anything priced in dollars). Then it'll start sinking again.
• @FireFoley "Fun with Rule of Sevens" time... Back in May, for Gold, the rule of 7's had the three probably target projections at 1569, 1737, and 2077... we're at 2073 now. There is always a fairly long pause at those levels, so we'll see how the theory holds. Gold is also showing extremely overbought. Will be interesting to watch. For silver, it's 25, 29 (now approaching), and 37. 26 is support for silver right now.

 

[Concrete Helmet]

Gold, Silver, Bitcoin (and other commodities like oil) will continue to run as long as the Fed is battering the dollar (demolishing actually) by printing currency in order to buy debt... and that will not end any time soon, only increase. Will increase more if Joe get's elected.

I've noticed Global funds starting to climb out of the cellar . I vacated in late Feb. and haven't paid a whole lot of attention until earlier this week.....still a little gun shy despite hearing clamoring's of mostly worldwide resurgence. Thoughts about parking a small(20%)portion there possibly as soon as tomorrow?

I also will likely skim another half of my profits from Growth and Tech funds which have both been at yearly highs. Just not sure whether I want to dump into LT's/Strips which should continue stellar growth during a selloff/downturn or be a little riskier with global stuff.

 

[BMF]

I've noticed Global funds starting to climb out of the cellar . I vacated in late Feb. and haven't paid a whole lot of attention until earlier this week.....still a little gun shy despite hearing clamoring's of mostly worldwide resurgence. Thoughts about parking a small(20%)portion there possibly as soon as tomorrow?

I also will likely skim another half of my profits from Growth and Tech funds which have both been at yearly highs. Just not sure whether I want to dump into LT's/Strips which should continue stellar growth during a selloff/downturn or be a little riskier with global stuff.

When you take a profit off your funds do you do "first in/first out" or "last in/first out"?

 

[Concrete Helmet]

When you take a profit off your funds do you do "first in/first out" or "last in/first out"?

Whatever shares were higher when purchased. I had to look a few weeks back because after the fallout I kinda tip toed back into stuff that I thought would come back faster so I ended up buying at different prices.

 

[FireFoley]

Update:

• Dow Transports has now closed above its June highs. This is bullish in Dow Theory land.
• R2000 also closed above June highs. Also bullish.
• As long as Dow Trans and R2000 stay in their upward channels, still bullish.
• Long term RSI on SP500 is still fine (not overbought).
• Still on track to move up and fill gap to 3337.
• Will likely get small (relatively speaking) pull back to the daily 21 EMA .
• 3280-3250 box is new key support.
• Then could see the final run up to 3453, then i'll dump longs and start shorting when we get around 3400. I may actually start taking 50%+ of profits by the close tomorrow (Friday).
• Then the big drop for "second bite at the apple" if you want to establish truly long positions.
• Again, we are in "toppy land", so be careful.
• Gold, Silver, Bitcoin (and other commodities like oil) will continue to run as long as the Fed is battering the dollar (demolishing actually) by printing currency in order to buy debt... and that will not end any time soon, only increase. Will increase more if Joe get's elected. Trump is wrong, in this bizarro world, Joe is actually stock market positive (because of even more debt). Dollar is sitting on its monthly 100 EMA and it usually makes a strong rebound off that level, if it does, this will cause a pull back in markets, gold, silver, bitcoin (and anything priced in dollars). Then it'll start sinking again.
• @FireFoley "Fun with Rule of Sevens" time... Back in May, for Gold, the rule of 7's had the three probably target projections at 1569, 1737, and 2077... we're at 2073 now. There is always a fairly long pause at those levels, so we'll see how the theory holds. Gold is also showing extremely overbought. Will be interesting to watch. For silver, it's 25, 29 (now approaching), and 37. 26 is support for silver right now.

Great stuff. Thanks for all the work. As for your gold/silver take, it made me think back to when oil went above $100/barrel and everyone was asking how to get the price lower. Well the solution for high oil prices is HIGHER oil prices, to quell demand. Now I realize gold does not have the same usage as oil and as we all know markets can remain irrational longer than we can remain solvent, but there is a good argument for gold. However everyone is on the long gold trade so I will refrain from establishing new positions or adding here. Sure it can run more, but when everyone is on the same side of the boat, I tend to hop off.

The one thing that I keep seeing is the 10 year treasury has made 2 upside moves in the last 7 days. Both times it lasted about 10 seconds and today the 10 yr. traded sub 52 basis points again before leveling around 53. 50, 53, 56, whatever, the fact that rates can't sustain a small move higher is concerning and has the 10 year nominal rate headed to zero. The real 10 yr rate is currently about -1.10, so a negative nominal yield seems in the cards.

 

[Detroitgator]

Great stuff. Thanks for all the work. As for your gold/silver take, it made me think back to when oil went above $100/barrel and everyone was asking how to get the price lower. Well the solution for high oil prices is HIGHER oil prices, to quell demand. Now I realize gold does not have the same usage as oil and as we all know markets can remain irrational longer than we can remain solvent, but there is a good argument for gold. However everyone is on the long gold trade so I will refrain from establishing new positions or adding here. Sure it can run more, but when everyone is on the same side of the boat, I tend to hop off.

The one thing that I keep seeing is the 10 year treasury has made 2 upside moves in the last 7 days. Both times it lasted about 10 seconds and today the 10 yr. traded sub 52 basis points again before leveling around 53. 50, 53, 56, whatever, the fact that rates can't sustain a small move higher is concerning and has the 10 year nominal rate headed to zero. The real 10 yr rate is currently about -1.10, so a negative nominal yield seems in the cards.

Yeah, i forgot my standard blurb on the 10yr. I don't think they have any interest in it rising, just "maintaining". Unlike over the past 20 years, they now openly admit to "maintaining" the level of the bonds, so what we are seeing now is massive printing of currency in order to directly purchase bonds in order to just "maintain" the levels... and again, that debt is stock market positive... until it ain't.

 

[FireFoley]

Yeah, i forgot my standard blurb on the 10yr. I don't think they have any interest in it rising, just "maintaining". Unlike over the past 20 years, they now openly admit to "maintaining" the level of the bonds, so what we are seeing now is massive printing of currency in order to directly purchase bonds in order to just "maintain" the levels... and again, that debt is stock market positive... until it ain't.

No doubt the FED will be a LARGE purchaser of the longer term debt that the treasury just announced they will be auctioning in the 3rd Quarter, an all time record amount. I do not disagree that the FED is trying to keep long rates steady-ish, but I still contend that a continued lower long term interest rate will be taken as a negative over time. Sure it makes stocks more attractive but at some point 0% long term rates are a negative. See Japan.

 

[Detroitgator]

No doubt the FED will be a LARGE purchaser of the longer term debt that the treasury just announced they will be auctioning in the 3rd Quarter, an all time record amount. I do not disagree that the FED is trying to keep long rates steady-ish, but I still contend that a continued lower long term interest rate will be taken as a negative over time. Sure it makes stocks more attractive but at some point 0% long term rates are a negative. See Japan.

You still... aren't... GETTING IT!!!!

All true. I agree 100%. I went through ALL of this frustration 10 years ago. Then I realized it doesn't matter. There is a massive game being played, and yes, the game will end badly.... so, what have I learned after years and years of frustration?

1. I stopped trying to guess when the music will stop (especially based on "normal" metrics like you are talking about.)
2. I play the game that's in front of me and I'll play it until the music stops, but I do so with the comfort of knowing that I've already prepared for that day as much as I need to in order to make myself feel comfortable, and none of it consists of anything derivative based, and, as you know, EVERYTHING is a derivative unless physically possessed and there is no real counter-party risk (but yes, real estate, even free and clear, has counter-party risk with property taxes).

You post practically nothing that I disagree with... I absolutely see myself in you, but where I was 10 years ago. I get the frustration with what is going on because it's all just a big, fat, lie/game.