- Jul 29, 2014
- 22,204
- 23,468
Careful I went in long a while back and stayed even as it shriveled up...thank god it's getting long again.looking like I'll long stroke it in today
Careful I went in long a while back and stayed even as it shriveled up...thank god it's getting long again.looking like I'll long stroke it in today
Update (off the SP500 as usual):
- Prior to Friday's market action, I was giving a higher probability to the "skinny/shallow" scenario where we had bottomed and were starting higher.
- Given Friday's market action, I now think it's "50/50" on shallow vs moderate. I think this week will decide it for us.
- If this week, the SP500 rallies and closes above 3515, we are likely going higher to as high as 3600+, then small pullback, then run to 3740.
- If this week, the SP500 falls and closes below 3430 and the 21 daily moving average , especially if to 3400, we're going lower, possibly to 3050-3000.
- Indicators are all mixed and could be used to argue either scenario.
- I'd wait to see which way we break.
- In full disclosure, the positions i have right now are "long," but i don't feel comfortable with them.
- Remember, I use all this for short term, swing/momentum trading for income, NOT for retirement savings (but you can do this in a retirement account if you have control of the account). For a true retirement account, I'd still just be buying, holding, and adding to those positions.
Update (off the SP500 as usual):
- Prior to Friday's market action, I was giving a higher probability to the "skinny/shallow" scenario where we had bottomed and were starting higher.
- Given Friday's market action, I now think it's "50/50" on shallow vs moderate. I think this week will decide it for us.
- If this week, the SP500 rallies and closes above 3515, we are likely going higher to as high as 3600+, then small pullback, then run to 3740.
- If this week, the SP500 falls and closes below 3430 and the 21 daily moving average , especially if to 3400, we're going lower, possibly to 3050-3000.
- Indicators are all mixed and could be used to argue either scenario.
- I'd wait to see which way we break.
- In full disclosure, the positions i have right now are "long," but i don't feel comfortable with them.
- Remember, I use all this for short term, swing/momentum trading for income, NOT for retirement savings (but you can do this in a retirement account if you have control of the account). For a true retirement account, I'd still just be buying, holding, and adding to those positions.
Update:
- Well, we closed below 3430.
- Dow Transports started breaking down. 11498 is still its key support.
- "Moderate" retracement to 3050-3000 is now more likely than the skinny/shallow one, especially if we remain below 3516.
- In last update, I mentioned closing below 3430 AND the 21 EMA. The 21 EMA is right around 3414, so a close below that would really push is into the "Moderate" scenario.
- So, we're waiting to see if we go above 3516, or below 3414... in the meantime, we're just wallowing around in sh!t! ;)
Also, I see this playing out over the rest of this week... I should've mentioned that regardless of which direction we go from here, a bounce today was expected.We blew through all-time highs yesterday, only to watch it wither away to a tiny loss. Up again this morning and I'm expecting we close at ATH today. I'm locked down until 23Nov so it's all academic at this point, but I'm considering moving some of my cash to long. The rest is for H&B.
I honestly think Wall Street was pricing in a Biden win, and this is that evaporating. Regardless of who wins, the markets will keep going up, way up, as both will add tons of debt, Joe would just add a LOT more debt...Does the Plunge Protection Team work this close to an election? LOL. In all seriousness, I saw no upward moves for weeks unless Hag Face and Mnuchin were talking.
The other thing that is hitting the markets is that Europe is shutting DOWN again...Does the Plunge Protection Team work this close to an election? LOL. In all seriousness, I saw no upward moves for weeks unless Hag Face and Mnuchin were talking.
You are again conflating the "market" with the "economy".... the "market" is fueled by DEBT. Under Biden, there will be more DEBT than the "more debt" under Trump. Either way, the "market" will go up, but more so under Biden than Trump because there will be a lot more debt... the "market" had NO problem skyrocketing under Obama debt, the "economy" struggled under Obama. Keep the two things separate, because they are.Things won't change until Wednesday morning....if the election goes the wrong way the Dow plunges to 21-22 before weeks end and if it goes the right way it will go over 30 within days. Too much upside with a Trump win, more corporate tax cuts to fuel the big boys minus tech, remember the vaccine will be out next month too++++healthcare and there will be at least a skinny bailout.
The other thing that is hitting the markets is that Europe is shutting DOWN again...