To your first part, maybe I'm wrong, but I thought that had always been the rationale. That playing games elsewhere gets us exposure in that part of the world. I've even heard uga fans defend the cocktail party lcoation because of the footprint it's created for them in Jax. So that was the basis of my thinking. Again, maybe I'm wrong. But I don't think we've ever had trouble recruiting when we were a legit championship contender, regardless of schedule. Nor have I ever heard a recruit use that as a signature reason for choosing XYZ school. Kids are lining up to play for Saban/Dabo to win titles and join a pipeline to the league, not because they'll play at Penn State one time, 3 years from now. And I'm certain if a kid had to choose between going to Oregon for a meaningless scrimmage, or Pasadena to play for it all, they'd choose the latter.
On the last part, I don't have the numbers, so I can't say definitively you're right or wrong. But it would seem to me that giving up an entire game would be tough to make up with one big contest the following year. But to take it a step further, still looking at it solely from a monetary angle, what if a loss to Oregon in week 1, coupled with a road loss to Lsu midyear, prevented us from going to the playoff? How much revenue and exposure would that cost us? As I said, I don't have the data, but will fall back to my original point. We're needlessly adding hurdles to our already difficult schedule.
Ftr, I'm fine with kicking FCS schools, and certainly two in one year. But I'll maintain that "cupcakes", whether for working out preseason rust, getting second team reps, or allowing a few Sr walk-on's get to play in front of their parents on Sr day, still have their place. Paid professionals have 4 scrimmages and several crossover camps to get ready before bullets start flying. I think it's reasonable to afford amateurs one or two themselves.