Super Bowl LVIII: San Francisco vs. Kansas City

[Spurffelbow833]

These stupid NFL conspiracy theories I've been hearing lately have lowered my IQ to drooling levels.

Taylor Swift I'm sure can pull off getting on a plane and flying to games to watch her boyfriend, as she's not on tour. I don't like the stupid sideshow either, but pretending like it's some diabolical NFL plan is ludicrous. The NFL is insanely popular already - why would they need to try and pull off a stunt like that anyway?

Sober up.

Watching it and believing what you see is legit will do that, too. It's not diabolical. It has entertainment value. It just doesn't deserve to be taken seriously.

 

[MJMGator]

These stupid NFL conspiracy theories I've been hearing lately have lowered my IQ to drooling levels.

Taylor Swift I'm sure can pull off getting on a plane and flying to games to watch her boyfriend, as she's not on tour. I don't like the stupid sideshow either, but pretending like it's some diabolical NFL plan is ludicrous. The NFL is insanely popular already - why would they need to try and pull off a stunt like that anyway?

Sober up.

While I agree, Gov. Newsome, you asked for it when you opened the border to those refugees from TOS with their tin foil hats in tow.

 

[NVGator]

OK, as a lifelong Lions fan, here are my thoughts/comments...

There is no "moral victory" here of getting to the NFC championship game. The loss sucks, period. And it doesn't have anything to do with the 4th down decisions. Detroit just failed to execute on plays that they had made all season, period (and Campbell talked about it in his presser, while being VERY careful not to mention a specific play or player, and that's very important… more on “leadership vs rah rah coach below). San Fran executed, like they had all season, and especially at critical moments, and Detroit didn't. End of season.

Disclaimer up front: I've said this before - I will state again that I'm the dumbest guy on this board when it comes to X's and O's (at least bottom percentile!), but I will also state again that I will put myself up against anyone on this board when it comes to what the Army calls "small unit leadership" and a football team falls into that category. A football team has sections, squads, and platoons that make up a rifle company or cavalry troop that ALL have to perform to win at the highest level.

Leader/Leadership vs. Rah Rah Coach/Peter Principle:

From my observation, many people here (and most everywhere) seem to put Dan Campbell in the same category as a Zook or Muschamp when it comes to emotion and as a “rah rah coach.” On that note, you would be PARTIALLY correct. But Zook and Muschamp are NOT leaders... they are guys that people will follow, but “rah rah” only gets you to a certain point and then things break down and your true small unit colors (warts) show. Zook and Muschamp lack competence and proved the Peter Principle when rising to be Head Coach of an organization. Campbell has not proved the Peter Principle, not even close. In fact, he’s done just the opposite and overachieved so far. Additionally, while very emotional off field, you actually don't see stupid/wasteful/even harmful “rah rah” emotion on the sideline from Campbell. He's very cool under pressure if you watch him closely. He's a leader, and he understands the strengths, and more importantly, weaknesses of his “sections, squads, and platoons” that make up his “rifle company.”

Big Picture:

In the big picture of things, this was Year 2 of "3 Years" for the rebuild. This was something that was VERY clearly stated up front… “3 years”… not like our UF “be patient rebuild” that lacks definition. In that sense, Campbell (and the supporting organization under Sheila and Holmes) is well ahead of schedule, but the weakness was exposed last night. Detroit’s offense is fine… can compete with anyone. Rookies that they thought would take time to develop had record, all-pro seasons… they are ahead of schedule. Detroit’s defense still has weak “sections,” Campbell (and the organization) KNOWS this, and he very carefully/subtly addressed this in the post-game presser last night with obvious great pain and while not naming a single individual… that will come later, individually, the way a LEADER does things. For example, I love Sutton’s effort in every game, but even he knows he’s far from a lock down corner, but there he is, every week, 1 on 1 with the opponents #1 receiver. Campbell tried to compensate for that all season, but with CJ out (back for the last 2 playoff games) of the 3 safety rotation, and Huston out (back last night after being out all season) of pass rushing, but it just wasn’t enough for the “fire teams and squads of that platoon” to collectively overcome a better team. I think it is for this reason, the collective shortcomings this defense had coming into the season, that Dan went for it on 4th down all season instead of “taking the points”, not because he’s an emotional child with balls bigger than his brain. It was a conscious decision to overcome a known weakness.

4th Downs – “Go For It” vs. “Take the Points”:

Going into the game last night, the Lions had gone for it on 4th and 3 or less;

• 20 of 24 times
• Converted on 17 out of 20 of those attempts
• 15-18 in regular season
• 2-2 in playoffs (1 each vs Rams and Buccs)
• The two plays in question were 4th and 2 and 4th and 3 respectively

This has been chalked up all season to “identity” and “it’s who we are” and “huge balls”… part of that is true, and it can be part of building team cohesion, which is critical in both the Army and a football team. But as the season went on, I firmly believe it was a very deliberate decision to compensate for a known weakness: the defense, and Badgley (our kicker) and here is why:

• Googlez says that on average, an NFL team gets 10-12 offensive possessions per game.
• Detroit effectively “took away” 17 possessions from its opponents by extending a drive. That's almost 2 complete games of possessions.
• That’s the equivalent of 17 INTs/fumble recoveries that don’t show up in the stats

And then this regarding out kicker…

• Badgley only had SIX field goal attempts all season, only two from 40+
• All six were in a dome, and yes, he made all six going into last night’s game
• He also missed 2 of 23 XP tries this season
• Badgley’s career stats from 40-49 yards is 77% (37 of 48)
• The two attempts last night would have been from 46 and 48 yards respectively
• "Analytics" for both those attempts last night gave a slight edge to going for it and not kicking (and that's without figuring in who the kicker actually is, it's just raw numbers/stats).
• The one FG he did kick before the half was from 21 yards out

When you look at it from Dan’s perspective, and given the known weakness on defense and kicking, and given the stats above going into the game, sure, just chalk it up to an “idiot with balls bigger than brains”… add to that the fact that the first attempt on 4th hit Reynolds in the hands and he dropped it… that was the real problem last night… we didn’t execute on 9-10 plays (half drops, other half letting Purdy run for those critical yards on busted plays, and the 51 yard "doink" catch off the Detroit defender who covered perfectly) when we needed too.

For me, this isn’t like the Lions of the 90’s or 2010’s where we SNUCK into the playoffs because we had a Barry Sanders or Stafford/Megatron that could overcome a ton of warts. We finally have ownership in the Ford family (and she was a Firestone, not a true Ford), a GM, and a Coach who know actually seem to know how to build and win… not just get a freak player or two. We’ll see what happens with personnel changes/the draft in the off season… You could see this break Dan’s heart in the presser that he knows they are going to have to replace guys who tried their hardest, did their best, were totally bought in, but just not good enough at the highest level.

That’s enough for now.

TLDR…

You can say it till you’re blue in the face and believe every word of it but going for it on that particular 4th down instead of the FG was the absolute wrong decision.

Detroit was up 17 at the half and now SF had scored 20 unanswered points and had absolutely ALL the momentum on their side. Detroit was choking and they needed to stop the bleeding by getting points and reset.

You can say, “it’s who they are and what got them there” and you are right. But they were there, in the championship game and didn’t need that kind of thinking anymore. You can say, “well the dropped passes” but that happens in every game, all the time. Ask the Rams.

Detroit will be lucky to ever be in that position again. Ask the Jags.

 

[soflagator]

You can say, “well the dropped passes” but that happens in every game, all the time. Ask the Rams.

Detroit will be lucky to ever be in that position again. Ask the Jags.

 

[NVGator]

as she's not on tour.

Oh, but she is on tour and will be in Sydney, Australia the night before the Super Bowl.

 

[Detroitgator]

TLDR…

You can say it till you’re blue in the face and believe every word of it but going for it on that particular 4th down instead of the FG was the absolute wrong decision.

Detroit was up 17 at the half and now SF had scored 20 unanswered points and had absolutely ALL the momentum on their side. Detroit was choking and they needed to stop the bleeding by getting points and reset.

You can say, “it’s who they are and what got them there” and you are right. But they were there, in the championship game and didn’t need that kind of thinking anymore. You can say, “well the dropped passes” but that happens in every game, all the time. Ask the Rams.

Detroit will be lucky to ever be in that position again. Ask the Jags.

I gave you data, you answer with feelings… very feminine.

 

[NVGator]

I gave you data, you answer with feelings… very feminine.

 

[oxrageous]

Detroit will be lucky to ever be in that position again. Ask the Jags.

Or the Bengals.

 

[Gator By Marriage]

OK, as a lifelong Lions fan, here are my thoughts/comments...

There is no "moral victory" here of getting to the NFC championship game. The loss sucks, period. And it doesn't have anything to do with the 4th down decisions. Detroit just failed to execute on plays that they had made all season, period (and Campbell talked about it in his presser, while being VERY careful not to mention a specific play or player, and that's very important… more on “leadership vs rah rah coach below). San Fran executed, like they had all season, and especially at critical moments, and Detroit didn't. End of season.

Disclaimer up front: I've said this before - I will state again that I'm the dumbest guy on this board when it comes to X's and O's (at least bottom percentile!), but I will also state again that I will put myself up against anyone on this board when it comes to what the Army calls "small unit leadership" and a football team falls into that category. A football team has sections, squads, and platoons that make up a rifle company or cavalry troop that ALL have to perform to win at the highest level.

Leader/Leadership vs. Rah Rah Coach/Peter Principle:

From my observation, many people here (and most everywhere) seem to put Dan Campbell in the same category as a Zook or Muschamp when it comes to emotion and as a “rah rah coach.” On that note, you would be PARTIALLY correct. But Zook and Muschamp are NOT leaders... they are guys that people will follow, but “rah rah” only gets you to a certain point and then things break down and your true small unit colors (warts) show. Zook and Muschamp lack competence and proved the Peter Principle when rising to be Head Coach of an organization. Campbell has not proved the Peter Principle, not even close. In fact, he’s done just the opposite and overachieved so far. Additionally, while very emotional off field, you actually don't see stupid/wasteful/even harmful “rah rah” emotion on the sideline from Campbell. He's very cool under pressure if you watch him closely. He's a leader, and he understands the strengths, and more importantly, weaknesses of his “sections, squads, and platoons” that make up his “rifle company.”

Big Picture:

In the big picture of things, this was Year 2 of "3 Years" for the rebuild. This was something that was VERY clearly stated up front… “3 years”… not like our UF “be patient rebuild” that lacks definition. In that sense, Campbell (and the supporting organization under Sheila and Holmes) is well ahead of schedule, but the weakness was exposed last night. Detroit’s offense is fine… can compete with anyone. Rookies that they thought would take time to develop had record, all-pro seasons… they are ahead of schedule. Detroit’s defense still has weak “sections,” Campbell (and the organization) KNOWS this, and he very carefully/subtly addressed this in the post-game presser last night with obvious great pain and while not naming a single individual… that will come later, individually, the way a LEADER does things. For example, I love Sutton’s effort in every game, but even he knows he’s far from a lock down corner, but there he is, every week, 1 on 1 with the opponents #1 receiver. Campbell tried to compensate for that all season, but with CJ out (back for the last 2 playoff games) of the 3 safety rotation, and Huston out (back last night after being out all season) of pass rushing, but it just wasn’t enough for the “fire teams and squads of that platoon” to collectively overcome a better team. I think it is for this reason, the collective shortcomings this defense had coming into the season, that Dan went for it on 4th down all season instead of “taking the points”, not because he’s an emotional child with balls bigger than his brain. It was a conscious decision to overcome a known weakness.

4th Downs – “Go For It” vs. “Take the Points”:

Going into the game last night, the Lions had gone for it on 4th and 3 or less;

• 20 of 24 times
• Converted on 17 out of 20 of those attempts
• 15-18 in regular season
• 2-2 in playoffs (1 each vs Rams and Buccs)
• The two plays in question were 4th and 2 and 4th and 3 respectively

This has been chalked up all season to “identity” and “it’s who we are” and “huge balls”… part of that is true, and it can be part of building team cohesion, which is critical in both the Army and a football team. But as the season went on, I firmly believe it was a very deliberate decision to compensate for a known weakness: the defense, and Badgley (our kicker) and here is why:

• Googlez says that on average, an NFL team gets 10-12 offensive possessions per game.
• Detroit effectively “took away” 17 possessions from its opponents by extending a drive. That's almost 2 complete games of possessions.
• That’s the equivalent of 17 INTs/fumble recoveries that don’t show up in the stats

And then this regarding out kicker…

• Badgley only had SIX field goal attempts all season, only two from 40+
• All six were in a dome, and yes, he made all six going into last night’s game
• He also missed 2 of 23 XP tries this season
• Badgley’s career stats from 40-49 yards is 77% (37 of 48)
• The two attempts last night would have been from 46 and 48 yards respectively
• "Analytics" for both those attempts last night gave a slight edge to going for it and not kicking (and that's without figuring in who the kicker actually is, it's just raw numbers/stats).
• The one FG he did kick before the half was from 21 yards out

When you look at it from Dan’s perspective, and given the known weakness on defense and kicking, and given the stats above going into the game, sure, just chalk it up to an “idiot with balls bigger than brains”… add to that the fact that the first attempt on 4th hit Reynolds in the hands and he dropped it… that was the real problem last night… we didn’t execute on 9-10 plays (half drops, other half letting Purdy run for those critical yards on busted plays, and the 51 yard "doink" catch off the Detroit defender who covered perfectly) when we needed too.

For me, this isn’t like the Lions of the 90’s or 2010’s where we SNUCK into the playoffs because we had a Barry Sanders or Stafford/Megatron that could overcome a ton of warts. We finally have ownership in the Ford family (and she was a Firestone, not a true Ford), a GM, and a Coach who know actually seem to know how to build and win… not just get a freak player or two. We’ll see what happens with personnel changes/the draft in the off season… You could see this break Dan’s heart in the presser that he knows they are going to have to replace guys who tried their hardest, did their best, were totally bought in, but just not good enough at the highest level.

That’s enough for now.

I have no problem with their decisions to go for it on 4th down. It’s always easy with the benefit of hindsight to say what a team should have done, but it’s really impossible to know. Did SF play softer D trading space for time because they had the benefit of a 10 point lead? Who’s to say the kicker makes either of the field goals? As @MidwestChomp noted, the big mistake was running the ball on third down and gambling it would work and not force them to use a timeout. That decision left them no choice but to try an on-side kick. With all the rule changes favoring the receiving team, expected on-side kicks now work a whopping 3.2% of the time.

Your analysis was pretty good by the way and an interesting read, but I do question one of your conclusions. You noted that the Lions converted 17 of 20 4th down attempts, giving them 17 extra possessions. Actually that would only be true if they scored on that drive, ended a half on that drive, or it caused the opponent to not have enough time to score.

 

[Zodiac]

When they ran the ball on 3rd down from the one and got swallowed behind the LOS and had to burn a timeout was their biggest mistake. You have to throw a pass in that situation.

 

[Detroitgator]

I have no problem with their decisions to go for it on 4th down. It’s always easy with the benefit of hindsight to say what a team should have done, but it’s really impossible to know. Did SF play softer D trading space for time because they had the benefit of a 10 point lead? Who’s to say the kicker makes either of the field goals? As @MidwestChomp noted, the big mistake was running the ball on third down and gambling it would work and not force them to use a timeout. That decision left them no choice but to try an on-side kick. With all the rule changes favoring the receiving team, expected on-side kicks now work a whopping 3.2% of the time.

Your analysis was pretty good by the way and an interesting read, but I do question one of your conclusions. You noted that the Lions converted 17 of 20 4th down attempts, giving them 17 extra possessions. Actually that would only be true if they scored on that drive, ended a half on that drive, or it caused the opponent to not have enough time to score.

I do know this…

 

[fischerwood]

Detroit went for it on 4th three times in the game... on the first attempt, the ball when right off of Reynolds' hands, with a defender a yard behind him. Please tell me how SF's defense "worked" on that one? It didn't. Detroit just didn't execute. The second attempt was well defended and Detroit was lucky not to throw an INT on that one. The final attempt was the last TD. Please tell me how SF's defense "worked" on that one? It didn't.

I understand you are flummoxed, I am not, other than the lack of execution on the first one.

I reckon some folks just don't get it...so sad...boo hoo hooo

 

[soflagator]

Or the Bengals.

@Detroitgator may have to group text this thing.

 

[GatorCatsi]

These stupid NFL conspiracy theories I've been hearing lately have lowered my IQ to drooling levels.

Taylor Swift I'm sure can pull off getting on a plane and flying to games to watch her boyfriend, as she's not on tour. I don't like the stupid sideshow either, but pretending like it's some diabolical NFL plan is ludicrous. The NFL is insanely popular already - why would they need to try and pull off a stunt like that anyway?

Sober up.

 

[aka]

The largest media spectacle in the world left to total chance. Right.

 

[soflagator]

The largest media spectacle in the world left to total chance. Right.

Can’t manipulate a fumble at the 1 foot line or throwing a pick into triple coverage. Jackson and the Ravens choked, and against a defending SB team that needed no help. The other game was a head coach imagining he was playing a friend on Madden, not actually coaching a real life game that would carry consequences. Anyway it was supposedly a Ravens/Niners conspiracy a week ago because the logo wasn’t black and white(wait, the Raiders), or tan. They suddenly realized the TK/TS connection and switched allegiances?

 

[Zambo]

Well I'm guessing Alison is pretty good in the sack. Because as we all know nothings fks like crazy.

OAN....hard hitting real news for those seeking the TRUTH.

 

[TheDouglas78]

Oh, but she is on tour and will be in Sydney, Australia the night before the Super Bowl.

Sunday on the NFL Gameday or what ever the NFL network show is, they broke down how she could finish her tour date in Tokyo and fly back for the start of the Super Bowl. They covered the travel for 15 fuching minutes. I don't care if she is there or not, but her Super Bowl travel before we even knew what teams were going to be in it, shouldn't have been a 15 minute segment.

 

[soflagator]

Sunday on the NFL Gameday or what ever the NFL network show is, they broke down how she could finish her tour date in Tokyo and fly back for the start of the Super Bowl. They covered the travel for 15 fuching minutes. I don't care if she is there or not, but her Super Bowl travel before we even knew what teams were going to be in it, shouldn't have been a 15 minute segment.

I don’t disagree. But I honestly can’t remember the last time any vertical segment on any of these pre-game sports shows, college or professional, has been something worth devoting time to.

 

[aka]