2024 Investing Thread

[Egor's Assistant]

Yes. I finally unloaded my 3M last year when it went above 110 on the rumor of a litigation settlement. Dividend or not, they have way too much litigation risk for my liking. Another one along those lines is VZ. It had a big day today, finally, after years and years of BS and yes they have litigation risk regarding some lead cables but I believe it is minor compared to 3M and given the numbers VZ put up today with earnings and coverage ratio, that dividend is safe................for now. But speak to your own advisor or take your own advice LOL.

Gatorchatter is the advisor now FF. Practically a crowd-sourced Oracle. Ox would be a fool to shut it down.

For Safe dividends what about PHillip mOrris? PM is a good one, especially if you ever smoked cigarettes and want to get some of your money back. They lead in the Vape space and actually have a growing user base. (Evil, addictive crud, I know).

 

[Concrete Helmet]

For Safe dividends what about PHillip mOrris? PM is a good one,

I'd almost be willing to bet @FireFoley has been inhaling that PM dividend since you and I were pissing in our diapers...

 

[Egor's Assistant]

I'd almost be willing to bet @FireFoley has been inhaling that PM dividend since you and I were pissing in our diapers...

Me and @ROG's Ghost........

 

[FireFoley]

I'd almost be willing to bet @FireFoley has been inhaling that PM dividend since you and I were pissing in our diapers...

That would be correct and I also own MO. The problem with those stocks is constant Litigation, but the difference between PM and MO and say like 3M or VZ or JNJ , etc. b/c they are Cigs (or fags in England), you know it is neverending so the only issue is you have to be very diligent about when you get in. It does not take long for the stock price to wipe out the dividend yield everytime a new lawsuit is announced, but that is typically when I pick up more is when a new lawsuit is announced. FWIW I do prefer PM over MO b/c there is less litigation overseas and MO is the US arm of Philip Morris and the US loves suing over cigs, vapes etc. etc. But MO has much better lawyers than the US Gov't.

 

[Egor's Assistant]

 

[Concrete Helmet]

It does not take long for the stock price to wipe out the dividend yield everytime

Dividend trap is term you were looking for I believe. I am also following your buying method on these type stocks as I will only buy 3M at $96 or below and have set $35 for VZ. I also scale out any shares that I bought above those levels when I initially bought in about a year back while they are trading higher to bring my cost down. I did this recently with Target which I initially bought around $130 and then watched it drop to nearly $100 a few months back....I doubled my position between $105-110 and then peeled off some of the initial shares when it went back to $140.

All that said I've got a lot of work to do with one of my iron ore dividend giants.....yeah were not in a global recession my ass....

 

[BMF]

I sold off UEC & SE today - made a very nice profit on UEC (30% - about $500) and 12% on SE (about $200) - these were under $2000 buy-ins. I haven't done much buying and selling in the last two years - but I figured I might as well take some profit when it's there, especially in the Roth account. I'm still torn on selling AAPL when it hits $195+ again - I'm sure it's a great "hold for life" type of stock, but talk me out of selling at $196 and waiting for it to dip below $188 or so to jump back in.

 

[Concrete Helmet]

Not sure if anyone is interested but I just saw where Costco is now selling 1oz gold bars at $30 over spot...that is less than any dealer is offering, and you can get cash back bringing it below spot price, limit 2....Do not take this as advice but with gold being less than .05% of ALL investments in the US and with it going mainstream and central banks buying it as fast as they can get it loaded into their vaults I think we'll see 5k well before next decade.

There is a formula I came across a couple of weeks back that shows if it becomes even 1.5% of investment assets in this county and factoring in 2030's projected cost(inflation/QE) gold could in fact be well above 10K and even as high as 15k....take it for what it's worth....

Edit....I just saw that they have sold over 100 million dollars worth in their first run and were running out in hours....no wonder gold price is at all time highs even with higher interest rates....wow

 

[FireFoley]

Not sure if anyone is interested but I just saw where Costco is now selling 1oz gold bars at $30 over spot...that is less than any dealer is offering, and you can get cash back bringing it below spot price, limit 2....Do not take this as advice but with gold being less than .05% of ALL investments in the US and with it going mainstream and central banks buying it as fast as they can get it loaded into their vaults I think we'll see 5k well before next decade.

There is a formula I came across a couple of weeks back that shows if it becomes even 1.5% of investment assets in this county and factoring in 2030's projected cost(inflation/QE) gold could in fact be well above 10K and even as high as 15k....take it for what it's worth....

Edit....I just saw that they have sold over 100 million dollars worth in their first run and were running out in hours....no wonder gold price is at all time highs even with higher interest rates....wow

interesting about the gold calculation. Is that the same calculation they use for Bit Dog? I guess you can fondle gold though. And there is a finite amount and it has utility. BitDog I guess could be increased at a button's notice and has no utility, but what do I know?

Speaking of potential blowups, anything going on with any of the small regional banks you deal with. Have to admit I am buying the preferreds of some of these banks. Want to at least have a chance of getting something in case they go under.

 

[Concrete Helmet]

interesting about the gold calculation. Is that the same calculation they use for Bit Dog? I guess you can fondle gold though. And there is a finite amount and it has utility. BitDog I guess could be increased at a button's notice and has no utility, but what do I know?

Speaking of potential blowups, anything going on with any of the small regional banks you deal with. Have to admit I am buying the preferreds of some of these banks. Want to at least have a chance of getting something in case they go under.

My take is that regionals are underwater but I get most of my data from youtube so take it for what it's worth. Isn't that special bailout fund ending next month too?

Regarding gold an interesting tidbit is that all of the gold mined in the history of mankind doesn't even fill up 4 Olympic swimming pools and all the easy stuff has already come out of the ground making mining cost go higher and higher. To be profitable miners will either limit the amount they produce(just like oil) or if demand goes up make the price accelerate to absorb additional cost.

I just bought Sibayne Stillwater earlier this week because platinum and Palladium have hit bottom and it pays a dividend....it is not something I will hold forever though....same with Iron ore and natural gas, coal, and Uranium....look at those charts. There is just no way the producers can be profitable at those prices. They either cut production to stabilize price which is a best case scenario for buying in now because eventually central banks around the world are going to ease and when they do the demand will be met with short supplies.....meaning Crete is going to be cashing in

 

[BMF]

Of course AMZN pops after I sold - up over $170 today. smh

 

[Concrete Helmet]

Of course AMZN pops after I sold - up over $170 today. smh

Weird day yesterday....did you see META pop? I guess share buybacks were a huge part of that. One thing is for sure, there is a TOTAL disconnect between the real economy and the magnificent 7 that is holding up the rest of the stock market.

 

[BMF]

Weird day yesterday....did you see META pop? I guess share buybacks were a huge part of that. One thing is for sure, there is a TOTAL disconnect between the real economy and the magnificent 7 that is holding up the rest of the stock market.

Yes, crazy. And, for some reason, AAPL went down. I added a few shares of AAPL. I'm sitting on some brokerage cash right now - so buying dips, but I still want to hang onto a little of it to see if there's a "correction" coming up. I still think w/ the Fed toying w/ lowering interest rates things will be fine with the market - at least through the election. But who knows?

 

[FireFoley]

Weird day yesterday....did you see META pop? I guess share buybacks were a huge part of that. One thing is for sure, there is a TOTAL disconnect between the real economy and the magnificent 7 that is holding up the rest of the stock market.

This tech move is even more narrow in my opinion than 1998-2000. It is more than the 7 stocks they talk about everyday but not that many and yet most of these companies make money. But this is super concentrated and when they all head for the exits that is when it can get ugly. But that can be a long way away. Greenspan's Irrational Exuberance line was in 1996 and it was years before it came to fruition. Asset Markets can remain irrational much longer than you can remain solvent. Whatever your strategy stick to it, but protecting those profits in say the 20 or so stocks that have had the biggest moves can't be the worst thing you could do.

 

[Detroitgator]

This tech move is even more narrow in my opinion than 1998-2000. It is more than the 7 stocks they talk about everyday but not that many and yet most of these companies make money. But this is super concentrated and when they all head for the exits that is when it can get ugly. But that can be a long way away. Greenspan's Irrational Exuberance line was in 1996 and it was years before it came to fruition. Asset Markets can remain irrational much longer than you can remain solvent. Whatever your strategy stick to it, but protecting those profits in say the 20 or so stocks that have had the biggest moves can't be the worst thing you could do.

Not only that, but we could have typed the exact same thing about most of those same exact stocks 5 years ago... 10 years ago... 15 years ago...

I don't know about all of them, but anyone who doesn't think that Alphabet, Amazon (and all it does on and off the planet), the Musk group of companies (and all they do on and off the planet), and NVIDIA aren't going to continue to dominate global progress probably needs to rethink things.

 

[Egor's Assistant]

Yes, crazy. And, for some reason, AAPL went down. I added a few shares of AAPL. I'm sitting on some brokerage cash right now - so buying dips, but I still want to hang onto a little of it to see if there's a "correction" coming up. I still think w/ the Fed toying w/ lowering interest rates things will be fine with the market - at least through the election. But who knows?

Election years are historically decent market years. Normally, the FED doesn't do much so as to not affect the election. This year, seems they will try to perpetuate the myth of Bidenomics being a success so I see the FED lending a hand by cutting rates as we head towards November. On the other hand, Black Swans and even White Swans (trillions in debt restructuring this Spring) abound. One domestic bomb or Iran cutting off Red Sea transport would tank this super expensive market. Inflation could still reverse and those Mag 7 might come crashing back down to earth.

I sold all my QQQ last week and am pivoting towards a defensive strategy with lots of metals and cash. Will wait for a major correction, then buy back in. Might be waiting all year, but am prepared with lots of fixed income.

 

[Detroitgator]

Election years are historically decent market years. Normally, the FED doesn't do much so as to not affect the election. This year, seems they will try to perpetuate the myth of Bidenomics being a success so I see the FED lending a hand by cutting rates as we head towards November. On the other hand, Black Swans and even White Swans abound. One domestic bomb or Iran cutting off Red Sea transport would tank this super expensive market. Inflation could still reverse and those Mag 7 might come crashing back down to earth.

Why do you think we are NOT bombing Iranian things? See your first two words.

 

[BMF]

Why do you think we are NOT bombing Iranian things? See your first two words.

What are your thoughts about oil taking off?

 

[Egor's Assistant]

Why do you think we are NOT bombing Iranian things? See your first two words.

What are your thoughts about oil taking off?

Imagine what would happen if we DID bomb Iran. Oil will spike and inflation will come roaring back. Market will tank like nobody's business. Deliberately attacking Iran will result in massive world-wide conflict and economic chaos. Iran has sleepers all over the west.

 

[Detroitgator]

What are your thoughts about oil taking off?

I'd say it's in the same spot it was 20 years ago... "taking off" would be if we bombed Kharg Island or if something else seriously disrupted world flow... which is exactly why we're being weak and playing the "don't... don't" and pin prick worthless strike game... it's an election year.