2023 Investing Thread

[Concrete Helmet]

I do not move money around either for less than 50 basis points on short duration paper either. As far as value in the 3-7 year paper, I would say yes if you believe that rates have completely peaked and will be substantially lower at the end of that time period. Also it keeps you from the reinvestment risk when your short term holdings mature especially if rates continue to drop. The play was clearly to buy 10 year Treasurys the one and only day it pierced 5%. I did buy a decent amount of 2 years at 5+% but not enough in hindsight I have shorted 10 years recently and am down a bit but willing to give it some room given that it has moved so drastically so fast. With the amount of paper the Treasury will have to auction if it does not stabilize the long end of the market, it will tell me that severe slowing is on the way. I found value recently for me in some lower investment grade rated 5 year notes yielding 6.3%. The only problem is they are callable after the first year and any time after if the company so chooses but I was willing to take the risk,

My understanding is that banks are buying the 10yr.....YUGELY....which is what is pushing the rate lower....It kinds of makes sense if you think about it....but it is not a good sign for the economy espeially if you need to borrow money next year anyway.

 

[FireFoley]

I would have thought it would have been insurance companies, pensions, endowments and the like buying a good bit of 10s near 5% knowing what a lot of their obligations are in the future.

 

[Concrete Helmet]

The DXY is telling me the rest of the world is not totally convinced rates are heading lower or at least at the rate Wall St. is pricing in. I would have thought it would be closer to 100 but seems to be sticking around 104. Weird thing is though Gold just about touched it's all time high over the last couple of weeks. When the DXY does drop to 100 or below there will be alot of people wishing they had bought between 1600-1800 a couple years back...Either C. Banks are buying the sh!t out of it or foreign markets are, or both.

 

[oxrageous]

This hurricane gig is ridiculous - great money, while it lasts (and I think I'll be on this gig at least through Feb). Hoping to stay on with the company for other projects - this is the third company I've done this type of work with, and it would be nice to stay on with this company (rather than job hopping). I may have found a niche with this safety-officer role. So, yes - making WAY, WAY more than I can spend. lol Gonna buy two e-bikes for Christmas, was thinking about a Rolex (I bought the wife a Rolex last Christmas w/ the 'asylum seekers' money from Chicago), but a men's Rolex is about 3x more than hers.

Anyhow, yes - I'm perfectly fine earning 5+%. I still have a ton in the market, but keeping some of it safe makes me feel comfortable if/when the market tanks.

Gatorchatter is still open for donations.

 

[BMF]

Gatorchatter is still open for donations.

Will do - send me the link.

 

[Detroitgator]

Will do - send me the link.

 

[BMF]

View attachment 64939

There's nothing there - needs to be renewed or edited.

 

[Detroitgator]

There's nothing there - needs to be renewed or edited.

 

[BMF]

View attachment 64941

Thanks, I'm a retard. Remember, in the future - always explain things to me like I'm 8 years old!

 

[MJMGator]

Thanks, I'm a retard. Remember, in the future - always explain things to me like I'm 8 years old!

That explains your thread title obsession.

 

[BMF]

Big day in the markets.

Stock market news today: Dow surges to record, stocks soar after Fed previews rate cuts

Focus is on the Fed's last policy decision of 2023, with investors on alert for signs of an end to interest-rate hikes.

finance.yahoo.com

 

[BMF]

The higher the yield the lower the price....in theory it's like buying a stock....you want to buy when the price is lowest to be in position for the rate drop which will drive the price up.

It's starting to happen...read this

MSN

www.msn.com

EDV up over 20% since this post.

 

[Concrete Helmet]

EDV up over 20% since this post.

The market is drooling but I hope the Fed slow plays any cuts.....still paying over 4.0% yield too which is weird since the bonds in the fund are "strip" or zero coupon....

 

[BMF]

I bought 30 shares - about $2k worth (at the time).

 

[Concrete Helmet]

IPI at $17.00 and Compass Minerals bouncing off the bottom at $23.50.....I don't understand why Potash isn't going through the roof with the war in Ukraine/Russia.....China must be dead ass broke....be careful with materials.

 

[FireFoley]

Big day in the markets.

Stock market news today: Dow surges to record, stocks soar after Fed previews rate cuts

Focus is on the Fed's last policy decision of 2023, with investors on alert for signs of an end to interest-rate hikes.

finance.yahoo.com

Outside of my Short 10 yr, trade that went from winner to loser, it was a big day, but not for the stocks that had been leading the way if you noticed. MSFT closed lower on the day and the other largest tech stocks outside of AAPL and Broadcom really were lagging. Now granted they all have been over the top leaders all year, but this usually signals one of 2 things. Rally will continue but everything else will go up or FED sees what some of us believe and things are tough under the hood for a good majority of society. Very interesting that Grand Master J kept saying they have a ways to go and almost overnight he basically endorsed all the rate cuts for next year that the markets had already priced in.

 

[Egor's Assistant]

EDV up over 20% since this post.

That was an excellent and safe recommendation. I lost 15%+ on a similar play this summer, ZROZ.... Got in too early.

 

[Egor's Assistant]

What do the esteemed members of GC Finance think about a Stock Pickers Thread?
We post our favorite short term trade ideas and let a $50 donation ride on the results.
Might be a fun way to create some loot for poor beleaguered OX. And make for some public gambling.

Would go something like this: Recently, Crete shared one of his favorite trades, LTBR. He's made a few bucks on this stock before and knows a bit about its fluctuations. Says below $3.50 is a good price. So I buy a position hoping to make a few bucks on a quick trade. If it hits, buy Ox a steak dinner. Post the results for all to see. If it hits the trailing stop, welp, Crete blows, Ox gets nothing.

It's going to be a long offseason. We're going to need some distractions. What say you? Would you play this game?

 

[FireFoley]

What do the esteemed members of GC Finance think about a Stock Pickers Thread?
We post our favorite short term trade ideas and let a $50 donation ride on the results.
Might be a fun way to create some loot for poor beleaguered OX. And make for some public gambling.

Would go something like this: Recently, Crete shared one of his favorite trades, LTBR. He's made a few bucks on this stock before and knows a bit about its fluctuations. Says below $3.50 is a good price. So I buy a position hoping to make a few bucks on a quick trade. If it hits, buy Ox a steak dinner. Post the results for all to see. If it hits the trailing stop, welp, Crete blows, Ox gets nothing.

It's going to be a long offseason. We're going to need some distractions. What say you? Would you play this game?


View attachment 65192

Or we could all donate an equal amount of money to Crete and allow him to open and manage a Charity account on behalf of of GC with all gains going to the site. My guess is the proceeds will look something like

 

[Egor's Assistant]

Or we could all donate an equal amount of money to Crete and allow him to open and manage a Charity account on behalf of of GC with all gains going to the site. My guess is the proceeds will look something like

Not trying to start a Crete HedgeFund. Definitely would tank. He'd be skimming off the top for hookers and blow.

I'm ready to cash that LTBR position, but I don't want to owe OX a steak dinner.